Weekend Predictions: How Incredible can the Incredibles Open?
June 14, 2018
Incredibles 2 leads a group of three wide releases coming out in theaters this week. It should open with more than the rest of the box office combined. Tag is a film that many will find a little unbelievable, even though it is based on real-life events. Its reviews suggest a moderate opening, but nothing too special. The buzz surrounding SuperFly is really quiet, but it is being aimed at its target audience in a much more focused ad campaign, which makes judging said campaign’s effectiveness more difficult. Ocean’s 8 should have no trouble earning second place, while it could avoid falling 50%. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Cars 3 opened with $53.69 million, while Wonder Woman added $41.27 million over the same weekend. I would be shocked if Incredibles 2 doesn’t open with more than those two films earned combined. 2018 should win in the year-over-year comparison with relative ease.
It has been 14 years since The Incredibles opened in theaters. Since that time, Super Hero movies have taken over the box office, which should be good news for Incredibles 2. Additionally, it has been a long time since we had a potential monster family film debut, so there should be a lot of pent up demand. Finally, its reviews are outstanding, with a Tomatometer Score of 94% positive and an average score of 8.2 out of 10. There are some who think this film will set the record for a Pixar film earning more than the $135.06 million Finding Dory opened with. In fact, I’ve seen predictions that are north of $150 million. So appear to be based on the same metric that overestimated Solo’s and Deadpool 2’s openings, so I’m not that bullish, but I do think it will be Pixar’s second fastest opening with $115 million, just ahead of Toy Story 3.
Ocean’s 8 will be next with about $21 million. This will be more than enough to keep it on pace for $100 million domestically. If it can get to that milestone internationally, then it will have no trouble breaking even early in the film’s home market run.
Tag is based on real life events about a decades-long game of tag. That’s a strange premise, but the early reviews suggest the filmmakers managed to pull it off. The buzz isn’t particularly loud and it is tracking below Game Night. That said, it could come close to that film’s $17 million opening, but I think $14 million is more likely. That’s not a bad opening for a film rumored to have cost between $25 million and $30 million.
Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 should be in a relatively close battle with the former earning just over $9 million and the latter earning just under $9 million.
The final wide release of the week is SuperFly, which sits in the “They don’t make ‘em like this anymore” category. It is a remake of the 1970s Blaxploitation film of the same name. If this film can do well at the box office, then I suspect there will be a glut of similar remakes, as they are relatively cheap to make. For example, this one reportedly cost $16 million to produce. It could earn close to that much over its five-day opening weekend. However, its reviews suggest we should be a little more cautious in our prediction. Look for an opening of $11 million, including just over $7 million over the weekend.
- Incredibles 2 Comparisons
- Tag Comparisons
- SuperFly Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Incredibles 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Deadpool 2, Ocean’s 8, Tag, Superfly