Weekend Estimates: $180 million Opening is Beyond Incredible
June 17, 2018
Incredibles 2 was widely expected to dominate the box office over the weekend, but after the two previous potential monster hits missed high expectations, I thought it was wise to be a little more pessimistic. I was wrong. Incredibles 2 opened with an estimated $180 million. This is not only the best opening for a Pixar film, and an animated film in general, it is the 8th biggest opening weekend of all time. (It could slip a little in tomorrow’s final numbers, putting it in 9th place behind Captain America: Civil War.) The film is already the 50th biggest animated hit of all time and unless its legs are shorter than expected, it will quickly race to the top of that chart. Speaking of legs, Incredibles 2 has the best reviews in the top ten and earned a stunning A plus from CinemaScore. To be frank, perhaps stunning isn’t the right word. Perhaps “expected” is a better term, as Pixar has earned 7 A plus ratings out of its 20 films and has never once slipped below an A minus. Internationally, the film opened in second place with $51.5 million in 25 markets and earned a Pixar-best opening in Mexico ($12.3 million) and Argentina ($3.0 million). In fact, it was outstanding in all of Latin America. It is also the fasting opening Pixar film in Australia with $7.7 million, while it managed the studio’s second biggest opening in Russia with $5.4 million. Granted, the film is not doing as well internationally as it is domestically; however, it is still on pace for $1 billion worldwide, so there’s no way the studio isn’t celebrating this opening.
Speaking of international numbers, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom remained in first place internationally with $173.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $370 million. It opened in China with $111.9 million, while its predecessor earned $100.10 million during its opening weekend there.
Ocean’s 8 fell a little faster than expected, down 53% to $19.56 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $79.18 million. It will still have no trouble reaching $100 million domestically, perhaps as early as this time next week. It is also doing relatively well internationally with $19.3 million on 6,356 screens in 36 markets for a two-week total of $37.1 million internationally. $200 million worldwide is the target for the film and at this pace, this is practically guaranteed. In fact, $300 million worldwide is worth aiming for.
Tag matched predictions with $14.6 million during its opening weekend, which isn’t bad for a film that cost between $25 million and $30 million. Its reviews are 56% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, so its legs should be average. If it can find an audience internationally, then it will break even during the film’s initial push into the home market run. If it can’t, it should still break even eventually.
Solo: A Star Wars Story and Deadpool 2 matched predictions perfectly with $9.08 million and $8.8 million respectively.
SuperFly had to settle for seventh place with $6.3 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.4 million. Its reviews are 54% positive, while it managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it should have average legs. Unfortunately, I don’t think theater owners are going to keep it around very long, especially if it falls more than 50% this coming weekend.
Gotti opened with $1.67 million in 503 theaters, which was almost enough for the top ten. Frankly, I was expecting it to open below $1 million over the weekend. The other limited release we have numbers for is Eating Animals, which earned an average of $17,608 in two theaters.
- Incredibles 2 Comparisons
- Tag Comparisons
- SuperFly Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Wrap-up, Weekend Estimates, Incredibles 2, Solo: A Star Wars Story, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Gotti, Deadpool 2, Ocean’s 8, Tag, Superfly, Eating Animals