Weekend Prediction: Not So Simply Weekend at the Box Office
September 13, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend, which is one more than expected. Of these, only one movie, The Predator, has a real shot at top spot. Meanwhile, A Simple Favor is the only one of the four that is earning good reviews. White Boy Rick is opening truly wide, which is a bit of a surprise. Unbroken: Path to Redemption is the sequel to Unbroken, which earned over $100 million. No one is talking about this movie earning $100 million. This weekend last year, It remained on top with just a hair over $60 million. However, last year’s depth was really bad, so while I expect 2018 to lose in the year-over-year comparison, I don’t think it will be a major loss.
The Predator is the latest installment in the franchise. The franchise started in the 1980s and while the first film is amazing, almost all of the sequels have earned simply terrible reviews. Sadly, this film isn’t able to break that streak, as its reviews are just 37% positive. Add in the sex offender controversy in the movie and a lot of people who were interested in the movie are just giving up on it. It should still earn first place this weekend, but with likely under $30 million. I’m going with $28 million, which won’t be enough to be the fastest opening film in the franchise. It’s not even enough to match the first film’s opening weekend, if you take into account inflation.
The Nun is likely going to fall around 60% this weekend. It opened faster than expected, but its reviews are terrible at just 26% positive, while it only managed a C from CinemaScore. Also, horror movies rarely have long legs in theaters. That said, a $21 million sophomore stint is still more than enough to guarantee a $100 million domestic run and will match the franchise average, more or less.
A Simple Favor is not only earning excellent reviews, its buzz is growing at the right time. I don’t think it is going to be a monster hit, but it has a shot at $50 million domestically. To do so, it will need to open with close to $20 million. I’m going with $18 million, but it is important to point out that I am more bullish than most.
Crazy Rich Asians should remain in the top five one more week with between $8 million and $9 million. This won’t be enough to push it past $150 million domestically, but it will get to that mark very shortly.
White Boy Rick is based on the real life story of a teenage drug dealer / FBI informant. Any film based on real life events released in the fall was probably at some point aiming for Awards Season glory. However, this film’s reviews are mixed. There are elements that are being praised, like Matthew McConaughey’s performance, but overall the film has generated more criticism than praise. Worse still, this film is aimed at a more mature target audience and they are more likely to read and trust reviews, thus hurting the film’s box office chances even more. I still think it will open in the top five, but with only $8 million.
The final new release of the week is Unbroken: Path to Redemption. The first Unbroken earned more than $100 million domestically. This film won’t do the same. It has weaker reviews, it is being released by a smaller studio, and it is opening in less than half as many theaters. This adds up to an opening weekend of between $3 million and $4 million.
- The Predator Comparisons
- A Simple Favor Comparisons
- White Boy Rick Comparisons
- Unbroken: Path to Redemption Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, White Boy Rick, The Predator, The Nun, Crazy Rich Asians, Unbroken: Path to Redemption, A Simple Favor, Predator, The Conjuring, Matthew McConaughey