Weekend Estimates: La Llorona is the Best of the Weekend
April 21, 2019
The Curse of La Llorona is leading the way on the weekend chart with a surprising $26.51 million. Granted, this is the weakest opening in the The Conjuring franchise, while its reviews and B minus from CinemaScore suggest short legs. Also, Avengers: Endgame opens in just a handful of days, so it will be pushed into the smallest screens in most multiplexes very soon. That said, the film reportedly only cost $9 million to make and < HREF="https://www.the-numbers.com/market/distributor/Warner-Bros">Warner Bros.’ share of the opening weekend will be close to double that. Internationally, the film is opening even better with an estimated $30 million debut. On the downside, it is playing in 71 markets already, so it has very few major markets left to open in.
Shazam will be pushed into second place, not because it collapsed, but because the competition was stronger than expected. In fact, it is topping expectations with an estimated $17.34 million over the weekend, which would lift its running tally to $121.34 million. It also had a good weekend internationally, earning $22 million to lift its international total to $201.5 million. It is on pace to reach $400 million worldwide, assuming Endgame doesn’t kill it completely. Normally, this would be a terrible result for a super hero film; however, most super hero films don’t cost just $85 million to make. It won’t be the biggest hit in the D.C.E.U., but it will be one of the more profitable.
Breakthrough is opening in third place with $11.1 million over the weekend for a five-day debut of $14.6 million. This is a solid, but unspectacular, debut, which makes it better than most faith-based films have managed in the past few years. Good reviews and an A from CinemaScore will help its legs. Additionally, it doesn’t have a lot of crossover appeal with Endgame, so that film won’t hurt its legs going forward.
If estimates hold, then Captain Marvel will actually grow 9% this weekend to $9.1 million, lifting its running tally to $400.0 million. There was a question whether or not this film would get a boost ahead of the release of Endgame. I think we can safely say yes. In fact, this boost should help it overtake Wonder Woman domestically to become the undisputed champion for biggest female-led super hero movie of all time. Internationally, the film didn’t do as well, but it did pull in $6.1 million, meaning it could overtake Captain America: Civil War for sixth place in the M.C.U., sort of. Even if Captain Marvel overtakes Civil War, Endgame will likely surpass both films first.
Little looks to round out the top five with $8.45 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $29.38 million. It looks to be on pace to become a midlevel hit and Universal should be happy with this result.
Penguins is bombing with an estimated $2.35 million this weekend for a five-date total of $3.30 million. Even if the film earned that much over the three-day period, it still would have missed the Mendoza Line. This is puzzling, because its reviews are easily the best of the weekend and it managed an A from CinemaScore, plus I thought people loved penguins. Despite all of this, the film will miss the top ten during its opening weekend and will likely disappear from theaters as theater owners will be looking to drop it as soon as they are contractually able to.
Kalank is right behind in 13th place with an estimated $1.25 million three-day haul for a total opening of $1.76 million. This is arguably better than Penguins’ debut and really the only limited release we have numbers for that had a noteworthy debut.
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Filed under: Weekend Estimates, Shazam!, Captain Marvel, Avengers: Endgame, The Curse of La Llorona, Penguins, Little, Breakthrough, Kalank, Marvel Cinematic Universe, The Conjuring, DC Extended Universe