Weekend Predictions: Can Dark Phoenix Soar Above Pets 2?
June 6, 2019
It could be a real race on the box office chart this weekend. The Secret Life of Pets 2 isn’t generating as much buzz as I was expecting, while there is actually some good news surrounding Dark Phoenix’s box office chances. There’s no good news regarding its reviews, that’s for sure. Also coming out this weekend is Late Night, but it is now coming out in limited release with a wide expansion next week. That’s not a good sign. This does leave one more spot in the top five for a holdover, meaning Aladdin, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, and Rocketman will all remain in the top five for at least one more weekend. This weekend last year, Ocean’s 8 opened with a decent $41.61 million and both The Secret Life of Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix should top that. 2019 should start the month with an easy win.
The original The Secret Life of Pets opened with more than $100 million. There are many who think The Secret Life of Pets 2 won’t earn half that much during its opening weekend. Even optimistic predictions are in the low to mid $60 million range. Granted, the film’s reviews have fallen since the monthly preview came out and they are now below the overall positive level, so that’s not going to help sell tickets. However, this is such a large decline from the first film that it is hard to imagine the franchise turning into a trilogy. I think the film will beat the low end expectations, but it won’t quite reach $60 million. Let’s go with $58 million. I really thought it would earn at least $80 million during its opening weekend. I’m not sure why the buzz didn’t grow like it should have.
Dark Phoenix’s reviews are in and many critics consider the film to be the worst entry in the X-men franchise. This isn’t surprising, as you can’t make the Dark Phoenix Saga without first establishing what the Phoenix Force is and what it’s effects are on Jean Grey. In order to do that, you need at least two or three movies focusing on building up Jean Grey as a character. They never bothered to do that with Sophie Turner’s character here, just like they didn’t bother to do it with Famke Janssen’s character in the original trilogy. We already have some international numbers for this movie and unsurprisingly, they are lagging behind Apocalypse. However, it is not doing as badly as some had feared it would and that means this film has at least a 50/50 shot at opening north of $50 million. I’m going with a prediction of $52 million, meaning it should earn first place during Thursday’s previews and might even win the race on Friday itself.
Aladdin is dealing with direct competition this week; however, that competition isn’t expected to do as well as most assumed, while this film is actually holding up better than anticipated. It even regained first place on the daily box office chart. The film should not fall more than 50% this weekend; in fact, it could earn as much as $25 million. I’m not that bullish, but I think a $23 million weekend it likely. This would lift its running tally to close to $230 million. It will top $250 million domestically while it has a shot at $700 million worldwide. It was an expensive movie to make, but this is more than enough to break even.
Godzilla: King of the Monsters is is an action movie that is part of a MonsterVerse. It earned weak reviews and its CinemaScore was only marginally better. Furthermore, it has to deal with direct competition. All of this adds up to short legs and a drop-off of close to 60% is sadly very likely. This would leave the film in fourth place with close to $20 million over the weekend and just over $80 million in total. It will cross $100 million, possibly as early as next weekend, but I fear this would just be saving face and the MonsterVerse might be in trouble.
Rocketman should round out the top five with about $13 million for a two-week total of just under $50 million. The movie cost $41 million to make, so it will match its production budget domestically on Friday and it should break even early in its home market run.
- The Secret Life of Pets 2 Comparisons
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- Dark Phoenix Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Godzilla: King of the Monsters, The Secret Life of Pets 2, Dark Phoenix, Aladdin, Late Night, Rocketman, X-Men, MonsterVerse, The Secret Life of Pets, Famke Janssen, Sophie Turner