Weekend predictions: $6 million is the benchmark for Tom and Jerry

February 26, 2021

Tom and Jerry

Warner Bros. wraps up January with what should be the biggest release of the year so far. Under normal circumstances, Tom and Jerry would be looking for an opening weekend somewhere close to the $58 million enjoyed by Sonic the Hedgehog this time last year. Our model says $46 million would be par for the course for a film like this. But, even though there are some signs of improvement in the theatrical market, pandemic-related restrictions and the reluctance of audiences to return to theaters means the movie won’t see anything close to that level of business this weekend.





One of the main factors working against Tom and Jerry is that family films like this usually open in a lot of theaters. Sonic debuted in 4,167 movie houses, for example, and the median among comparable recent releases is 4,090. Warner Bros. hasn’t released a theater count, but we expect Tom and Jerry to play in around 2,200 locations—only a little more than half what’s normal for a film like this. If our theater estimate is low, it might do a little better than our prediction.

Likewise, our pandemic adjustment remains very low, with just 25% of the normal audience currently going to theaters. In spite of some encouraging signs recently, recent wide releases have’t done enough business to change our model’s dire assessment of the theatrical market. Judas and the Black Messiah’s opening suggested only 19% of its audience showed up, and Land wasn’t much better. It hit 26% of its potential, according to the model.

Tom and Jerry is a different beast to those movies, though, and the performance of The Croods: A New Age, which opened with a strong $9.7 million, and recently passed $50 million in total, gives us some reason for hope. A New Age turned out roughly half of its target audience on opening weekend, and a similar performance for Tom and Jerry would give it an opening north of $12 million. Its simultaneous release on HBO Max counts against it a little, although we haven’t seen simultaneous streaming releases negatively impact box office performance during the pandemic. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Tom and Jerry surpass the model’s $6.2 million prediction this weekend. Anything over $8 million would be an encouraging sign of a recovering market.





The fortunes of returning films depend fairly heavily on their theater counts this weekend, and Warner Bros.’ decision not to release any figures makes prediction a frustrating business. The model expects Wonder Woman 1984 to lose the most theaters this weekend and drop out of the top six, but The Little Things and Judas and the Black Messiah may also fall away noticeably. One thing we can be fairly certain of is that The Croods: A New Age will finish second. How much it falls will probably depend on competition with Tom and Jerry. With so few wide releases, competition between films hasn’t had a measurable effect on box office during the pandemic, but this may be the weekend that sees that rule broken.

Whatever happens, we should see a welcome increase in total box office for the top six this weekend. With three wide releases scheduled for next weekend, we should see that trend continue into early March.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Wonder Woman 1984, The Croods: A New Age, Tom and Jerry, Land, Judas and the Black Messiah