Weekend predictions: Nobody’s business

March 26, 2021

Nobody

Action thriller Nobody rounds out March with a rollout in 2,460 theaters and its sights firmly set on the top of the box office chart. If the domestic box office is recovering at the pace we hope, it should achieve that goal, but our model’s figures suggest its victory isn’t assured.



This is one of those weeks when my instincts say the model is missing the mark. Films like Let Him Go and The Little Things have managed to top $4 million on their opening weekends recently, and recent new theater openings should give Nobody a boost. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nobody open with over $5 million.

The reason for the lower prediction from the model is that it assumes 27% of the regular audience is currently going to see movies. As I mentioned earlier this week, that might well be a lowball estimate. The films released so far in March have reached 37% of their audience on average, according to the model. If that’s an accurate reflection of the current state of the market, Nobody should make about $3.9 million this weekend. If the market has started its recovery phase (where box office might increase by around 30% a week), then Nobody could hit $5.2 million for the weekend. If you’re a box office optimist, I would set that as your benchmark for the weekend, but anything over $2.84 million would be a positive sign.





If you’re in the “Nobody will make $5.2 million or more this weekend” camp, you might feel like it’s a sure bet for number one, particularly when you look at the chart above. However, the $5.2-million calculation I just ran assumes a 30% growth in the market as a whole this weekend, in which case Raya and the Last Dragon would most likely not decline at all from last weekend’s $5.1 million box office haul. While my heart says Nobody will win the weekend, the model says the race is too close to call.

If both films top $4 million, and Tom and Jerry lands around $3 million, we should see some nice growth at the box office overall this weekend. Godzilla vs. Kong’s release next week should give us another big boost, and most likely the biggest weekend of the pandemic.

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Godzilla vs. Kong, Raya and the Last Dragon, Let Him Go, Tom and Jerry, The Little Things