Weekend predictions: A Quiet Place is the favorite to win the weekend

June 4, 2021

Expect to see a close race at the top of the box office chart this weekend as A Quiet Place: Part II does battle against two newcomers—The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, and Spirit Untamed—and Cruella hopes to make up some ground on the current chart topper after posting solid numbers last weekend. There’s a possibility that four films could top $10 million this weekend, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see three films better that number though, which would be another milestone in the recovery of the theatrical market.

The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It is the eighth film in The Conjuring franchise, which gives our model a lot of data to work with in its prediction. Recent releases have not faired as well as the first few films in the franchise, but an opening weekend of around $37 million under normal circumstances seems about right. Adjusting for theater availability and the model’s current estimate of audience participation brings the prediction down to $12.6 million, which strikes me as a shade low. The film will need to do much better than that to beat A Quiet Place, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it lands in a solid second place with $15 million.

Spirit Untamed is a movie aimed squarely at a younger audience, which is a segment of the market that has been doing relatively well during the pandemic. That’s in the sense that about half of the regular audience is coming to theaters, compared to less than 40% for other films. The performance of this kind of animated film, however, isn’t very reliable, even when backed by a major studio (they traditionally perform strongly in the home video and TV markets though, so the opening weekend isn’t as significant a factor as it is for other genres). Once everything is adjusted for, the model thinks a weekend close to $8 million is on the cards. That might prove to be high, but this is a difficult film to gauge. Cruella could draw a lot of people away, and Raya and the Last Dragon will also provide some competition, even if it is streaming as part of a regular Disney+ subscription as of today.

If Spirit Untamed tops $10 million, that would be great sign that audiences are returning to theaters. That said, I wouldn’t read too much into a weekend closer to $5 million. This is a film with quite a lot of competition, and its opening weekend isn’t a make-or-break deal for Universal.

The model is predicting a 64% second-week decline for both A Quiet Place and Cruella this weekend. While that’s not unreasonable, given that we’re coming off of the Memorial Day long weekend, I think it might be a little pessimistic, particularly for Cruella. I also suspect that the model may be underestimating Raya and the Last Dragon, which could well beat Wrath of Man for sixth spot.

All told, a weekend of around $50 million for the top six would be respectable. If the market recovery is really getting under way all of the top four would top the model’s predictions, and something closer to $60 million is possible. After last week’s holiday and strong results, total box office will inevitably be down, but we could post respectable numbers again, and very likely the second-best weekend of the pandemic recovery period.

Bruce Nash

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Cruella, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, A Quiet Place: Part II, Raya and the Last Dragon, Spirit Untamed, Wrath of Man, The Conjuring