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21st Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition

Oscar Contest

Voting is now closed in our 21st Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition, and we’re ready to announce the predicted winners in each category.

We have overwhelming favorites in virtually all of the major categories this year, with one glaring exception: Best Picture. That race is a virtual tie between Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. Three Billboards has a very slight edge, with 44% of the vote, while Shape of Water has 43%. Get Out is a long shot, at 6%, and Dunkirk and Lady Bird are the only two films to get a look in, with about 3% each.

With the top two films both getting less than 50% of the votes, it’s fair to say there isn’t a favorite in this race, and any of these five films seems like a conceivable winner. The winner of our contest will likely be someone who makes the right call in this category.

Things are much more clear cut in other categories…

Coco is a huge favorite to win Best Animated Feature, with 98% of the vote. Similar shoo-ins appear to be Gary Oldman for his performance as Winston Churchill in Darkest Hour (94% of the vote), and Frances McDormand in Three Billboards (91%). The supporting actor favorites, Allison Janney in I, Tonya, and Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards, both have huge leads too, with 86% of the vote.

One key moment in the evening will be to see if Guillermo del Toro picks up the Best Director award. He gets 89% of the vote in our contest, miles ahead of Christopher Nolan’s 6%, and Greta Gerwig’s 3%. But any of those three are plausible winners, for one reason or another. If del Toro doesn’t pick this one up, it’s probably a bad sign for Shape of Water.

Likewise, look to the acting awards to see if there’s any weakness in support for Three Billboards. A supporting actor win for Willem Dafoe, for example might indicate that academy members are lukewarm on Three Billboards.

One of the more interesting categories tonight will be Original Screenplay, where Jordan Peele gets 58% of our votes, ahead of Martin McDonagh’s 25%. A win for either film would improve its odds of taking home Best Picture (as, indeed, would a longshot win for Shape of Water in this category).

The mix of films up for Oscars this year means that no one movie is likely to dominate proceedings this evening. Our contest has three films each picking up three Oscars: Three Billboards, The Shape of Water, and Dunkirk. Darkest Hour, Blade Runner 2049, and Coco are favored in two categories each. If Dunkirk or Shape of Water starts piling up technical awards early in the show, that might be a harbinger of an eventual Best Picture win. If Blade Runner 2049 pulls off wins in categories like Production Design, Sound Mixing, or Sound Editing, that might be a sign that Shape of Water hasn’t won over the academy voters.

As always, there will be upsets on the night, but it’s unlikely the earlier categories will provide enough consistent results that the winner of Best Picture will seem a foregone conclusion when the envelope is opened. Let’s hope there’s no room for uncertainty after the envelope is opened this time around.

- Predicted winners in each category
- Total votes in each category
- Predicted and actual winners in each category



Player Rankings

All-Time Top 200 Players

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Nominations

To help your research, here is a complete list of nominations.

Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Ferdinand
Loving Vincent

Directing
Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread - Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro

Actress in a Leading Role
The Shape of Water - Sally Hawkins
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Frances McDormand
I, Tonya - Margot Robbie
Lady Bird - Saoirse Ronan
The Post - Meryl Streep

Actor in a Leading Role
Call Me by Your Name - Timothée Chalamet
Phantom Thread - Daniel Day-Lewis
Get Out - Daniel Kaluuya
Darkest Hour - Gary Oldman
Roman J. Israel, Esq. - Denzel Washington

Actress in a Supporting Role
Mudbound - Mary J. Blige
I, Tonya - Allison Janney
Phantom Thread - Lesley Manville
Lady Bird - Laurie Metcalf
The Shape of Water - Octavia Spencer

Actor in a Supporting Role
The Florida Project - Willem Dafoe
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Woody Harrelson
The Shape of Water - Richard Jenkins
All the Money in the World - Christopher Plummer
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Sam Rockwell

Best Writing: Original Screenplay
The Big Sick - Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out - Jordan Peele
Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water - Screenplay by Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor; story by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Martin McDonagh

Best Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
The Disaster Artist - Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan - Screenplay by Scott Frank, James Mangold and Michael Green; story by James Mangold
Molly’s Game - Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound - Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

Foreign Language Film
A Fantastic Woman - A Fantastic Woman
The Insult - The Insult
Loveless - Loveless
Teströl és lélekröl - On Body and Soul
The Square

Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces, Places
Last Men in Aleppo

Music: Original Score
Dunkirk - Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi - John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Carter Burwell

Music: Original Song
Mudbound - Mighty River. Music and Lyric by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq and Taura Stinson
Call Me by Your Name - Mystery of Love. Music and Lyric by Sufjan Stevens
Coco - Remember Me. Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Marshall - Stand Up for Something. Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Lonnie R. Lynn and Diane Warren
The Greatest Showman - This is Me. Music and Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

Achievement in Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049 - Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour - Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk - Hoyte Van Hoytema
Mudbound - Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water - Dan Laustsen

Achievement in Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast - Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour - Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread - Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water - Luis Sequeira
Victoria and Abdul - Consolata Boyle

Achievement in Film Editing
Baby Driver - Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos
Dunkirk - Lee Smith
I, Tonya - Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water - Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Jon Gregory

Achievement in Make-Up and Hairstyling
Darkest Hour - Kazuhiro-Tsuji, David Malinowski, and Lucy Sibbick
Victoria and Abdul - Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Wonder - Arjen Tuiten

Achievement in Production Design
Beauty and the Beast - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049 - Production Design: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Alessandra Querzola
Darkest Hour - Production Design: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
Dunkirk - Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
The Shape of Water - Production Design: Paul Denham Austerberry; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau and Jeffrey A. Melvin

Achievement in Sound Editing
Baby Driver - Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049 - Mark Mangini and Theo Green
Dunkirk - Richard King and Alex Gibson
The Shape of Water - Nathan Robitaille and Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi - Matthew Wood and Ren Klyce

Achievement in Sound Mixing
Baby Driver - Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin, and Mary H. Ellis
Blade Runner 2049 - Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill and Mac Ruth
Dunkirk - Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo and Mark Weingarten
The Shape of Water - Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern and Glen Gauthier
Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi - David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Stuart Wilson

Achievement in Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 - John Nelson, Gerd Nefzer, Paul Lambert, and Richard R. Hoover
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, and Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island - Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, and Mark Meinardus
Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi - Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Neal Scanlan, and Chris Corbould
War for the Planet of the Apes - Joe Letteri, Daniel Barrett, Dan Lemmon, and Joel Whist



Previous Results

Results from 2017:

- Predicted winners in each category
- Total votes in each category
- Predicted and actual winners in each category

Results from 2016:

- Top 200 Players in 2016
- All-Time Top 200 Players
- Our full list of predicted winners.
- Complete vote tallies in each category
- Predicted vs. actual winners in each category

Results from 2015:

- Full List of Top 200 Players in 2015
- Our full list of predicted winners in 2015
- Our predictions compared to the actual winners in 2015
- Complete vote tallies in each category

Results from 2014:

- Full List of Top 200 Players in 2014
- Our full list of predicted winners in 2014
- Our predictions compared to the actual winners in 2014
- Complete vote tallies in each category

Results from 2013:

- Top 200 Players in 2013
- Analysis: Argo Predicted as Best Picture, Awards to Be Spread Far and Wide
- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category

Results from 2012:

- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2012
- Top Players of All Time

Results from 2011:

- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2011

Results from 2010:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies from The Numbers readers in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2010

Results from 2009:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies from The Numbers readers in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2009

Results from 2007:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2007

Results from 2006:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Our announcement of the winner

Results from 2005:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Our announcement of the winner

Results from 2004:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.

Results from 2003:
- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.

Results from 2002:
- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.

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