2019 Preview: December

December 1, 2019

Frozen II wasn’t the only box office hit to debut in November, but it was by far the largest. It helped save November and kept 2019 from turning completely sour at the last minute. As for December, we have several potential $100 million hits, plus a couple of monster hits. There are some who think Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker will be the biggest domestic hit released in 2019, but most think it will have to settle for second place. Jumanji: The Next Level should also be a monster hit, even if it doesn’t come really close to its predecessor. As for last December, Aquaman was the undisputed champion, earning almost as much as the next two films combined. Jumanji could top Aquaman at the box office, while we could also have more $100 million films than we had last year. Add in Star Wars and the year should end on a really positive note, making up for the extended slumps we had to deal with through a lot of the year. 2019 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but it will do enough that we will be able to celebrate.

Weekend of December 6^th, 2019

The weekend after Thanksgiving is a terrible time of the year to open a wild release. It is so bad, that many years, no studio is willing to take that risk. This year, there are two such films, sort of. PLAYMOBIL was pushed back from Labor Day long weekend to this weekend and sadly its box office potential is even lower than it was before. Unfortunately, The Aeronauts is in even worse shape, as most don’t think it will open truly wide. It might not even open semi-wide and it will be stuck nationwide. As such, it is not going to be featured on this list, but it was worth mentioning. This weekend last year, there were no wide releases and only two films, Ralph Breaks the Internet and The Grinch, earned more than $10 million. This year, Frozen II should give 2019 an easy win.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Movie.Playmobil.com
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: December 6th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Toy
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Secret Agent, Kidnap, Living Toys, Missing Person, Rescue
Directed By: Lino Disalvo
Written By: Greg Erb, Jason Oremland, Blaise Hemingway, Lino Disalvo
Starring: Lino Disalvo, Anya Taylor-Joy, Jim Gaffigan, Gabriel Bateman, Adam Lambert, Kenan Thompson, Meghan Trainor, Daniel Radcliffe
Production Budget: Reported at $75 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

This film was supposed to come out at the end of August before being pulled from the schedule at the last minute. It was widely expected to struggle back then and it’s chances have gotten a lot worse now. At least back then it wouldn’t have to deal with Frozen II. There’s a real chance it opens below the Mendoza Line ($2,000 per theater) and never hits $10 million domestically. I’m not that pessimistic, but I’m certainly not bullish about its chances.

Last Minute Update: There’s still no MPAA rating on their official site. ... That seems like something that should be finalized by now. The movie’s official site does have a December 6th release date, but now I’m not so sure.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: BlackChristmasMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: December 13th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for violence, terror, thematic content involving sexual assault, language, sexual material and drinking.
Source: Remake
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Holiday Horror, Christmas Horror, Teenage Slasher, Remake, College, Female Lead, F-Rated, F-Rated, Triple
Directed By: Sophia Takal
Written By: Sophia Takal, April Wolfe, A. Roy Moore
Starring: Imogen Poots, Aleyse Shannon, Brittany O’Grady, Lily Donoghue
Production Budget: Reported at $5 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million

This is the second time Black Christmas has been remade, and it’s not surprise people would want to remake it, as it is considered one of the earliest teenage slashers and one of the best in the genre. The first time the 1974 slasher classic was remade was 2006, but that film suffered from studio interference and the less said about the end result, the better. This film appears to have had a smoother production and the buzz is quite positive. The buzz isn’t really loud, but this is a low budget horror film that cost just $5 million to make. It likely cost less than $20 million to advertise, so if it opens with $10 million to $15 million, it will make enough to break even early in its home market run. I think that’s a very likely scenario.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: JumanjiMovie.com/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: December 13th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for adventure action, suggestive content and some language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: 3-D, 3-D - Post-production Conversion, IMAX: DMR, Video Game, Sequel With Returning Stars Playing New Characters, Same Role, Multiple Actors, Explorer
Directed By: Jake Kasdan
Written By: Scott Rosenberg, Jeff Pinkner, Jake Kasdan, Chris Van Allsburg
Starring: Dwayne Johnson, Karen Gillan, Jack Black, Kevin Hart, Nick Jonas, Awkwafina
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million
Box Office Potential: $325 million

The Jumanji reboot, Welcome to the Jungle, was expected to be a sizable hit. We predicted $150 million domestically on a $90 million budget and that would have resulted in a tidy profit. It opened better than expected, but it was its legs that took the film into the realm of insanity. $400 million domestically and nearly $1 billion worldwide on a $90 million budget. Sadly, most don’t think The Next Level will be able to match that. Fortunately, it doesn’t have to. The film’s tracking suggests a $40 million to $60 million opening, while the Christmas break will give it a 5 to 6 times multiplier, depending on audience reactions and how well the competition does. Even the low end has the film doing well enough to break even early in its home market run, while if the movie does as well at the box office as some think will, it will earn enough domestically to cover its entire production budget and more than half its expected advertising budget.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: RichardJewellMovie.net
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: December 13th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for language including some sexual references, and brief bloody images.
Source: Based on Factual Book/Article
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Biography, 1990s, Atlanta, Georgia, Olympics, Terrorism, Media Circus
Directed By: Clint Eastwood
Written By: Billy Ray, Marie Brenner
Starring: Sam Rockwell, Kathy Bates, Paul Walter Hauser
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $40 million to $60 million
Box Office Potential: $65 million

There was a five-year stretch back in the early 2000s where Clint Eastwood made five movies in a row that earned multiple Oscar nominations, including a combined seven wins. Even though he’s never matched that streak since then, his later films have still earned ten Oscar nominations and because of that success, any film he’s a part of has some level of Oscar buzz attached to it. Richard Jewell is no exception. It’s early reviews suggest it could earn a few Oscar nominations, but it won’t be a major player during Awards Season. That said, if it does overperform when it comes to major nominations, that could help its legs enough to double the box office potential above. Or it could stumble out of the gate and the direct competition will overshadow it and prevent it from earning long legs. If it can just match Clint Eastwood’s 2018 release, The Mule, then it will be one of several $100 million hits from his career.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Bombshell.movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: December 13th, 2019 (Limited Release)
Release Date: December 20th, 2019 (Expands Wide)
MPAA Rating: R for sexual material and language throughout.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Sexual Harassment, TV News, 2010s, Biography, Boss From Hell, Fired, Voiceover/Narration, Breaking the Fourth Wall, Intertitle
Directed By: Jay Roach
Written By: Charles Randolph
Starring: Charlize Theron, Nicole Kidman, Margot Robbie
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $50 million
Box Office Potential: $85 million

Bombshell is an exposé on the allegations against Roger Ailes during his time at Fox News. It’s a real-life story that fits with an important social movement of the day. It was directed by Jay Roach, who has multiple Emmy wins for TV movies of a similar nature. It was written by Charles Randolph, who has an Oscar win for The Big Short. Finally, all four of the main cast members have at least one Oscar nomination, two have Oscar wins. If this film doesn’t have stellar reviews, I will be shocked. At the moment, it has no reviews, so we will have to wait and see if it lives up to its pedigree. If it does, it has a realistic shot at $100 million.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: CatsMovie.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: December 20th, 2019
MPAA Rating:
Source: Based on Musical or Opera
Genre: Musical
Keywords: Animal Lead, Talking Animals, One Night, Reincarnation, Ensemble
Directed By: Tom Hooper
Written By: Lee Hall, Tom Hooper, T.S. Eliot, Andrew Lloyd Webber
Starring: James Corden, Judi Dench, Jason Derulo, Idris Elba, Jennifer Hudson, Ian McKellen, Taylor Swift, Rebel Wilson, Francesca Hayward
Production Budget: Unknown - Reported at $90 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million

I don’t know. This movie has me stumped. On the one hand, the trailers have not been well-received. On the other hand, the buzz hasn’t gotten quieter as a result with a lot of people excited to see the movie, just to see what kind of train wreck it will be. If it is actually a good movie, then it could hit $100 million. If it is bad, but not in an entertaining way, then it could be the biggest money-loser of the month.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: StarWars.com/Films/Star-Wars-Episode-IX-The-Rise-Of-Skywalker
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: December 20th, 2019
MPAA Rating: Not Yet Rated - Very Likely PG-13
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Space Opera, Robot, Good vs. Evil, Outer Space, Dysfunctional Family, Intertitle, Family Affair, 3-D, 3-D - Post-production Conversion, IMAX: DMR
Directed By: J.J. Abrams
Written By: J.J. Abrams, Chris Terrio
Starring: Mark Hamill, Adam Driver, Daisy Ridley, John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Lupita Nyong'o, Keri Russell, Joonas Suotamo, Anthony Daniels, Jimmy Vee
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $300 million to $325 million
Box Office Potential: $750 million

The Last Jedi earned 33.7% less than The Force Awakens and that had some people panicking. However, we’ve seen this pattern in the franchise before with both the original trilogy and the prequel trilogy. The third films in the previous two trilogies both bounced back, but they also both earned closer to the low end than the high end of expectations. I see no reason this will change, in fact, all evidence points to this continuing, so look for $750 million domestically. If it does earn this much, it would be just behind Avatar and in fourth place on the all-time chart, and amazingly, in a distant second place for 2019 behind Avengers: Endgame.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: LittleWomen.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: December 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for thematic elements and brief smoking.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Drama
Keywords: F-Rated, Triple, New York City, New York, Massachusetts, Writing and Writers, Romance, Relationships Gone Wrong, Death of a Sibling, Christmas
Directed By: Greta Gerwig
Written By: Greta Gerwig, Louisa May Alcott
Starring: Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Eliza Scanlon
Production Budget: Reported at $42 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

This film’s box office potential relies heavily on its Awards Season success. Fortunately, early reviews are 98% positive with an average score of just under 9 out of 10, which strongly suggests it will be a major Awards Season player. If the film can only manage a few nominations, it should still have a shot at $100 million. If it lives up to its reviews and is one of the big winners on Oscar night, then it could earn $150 million or more.

Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Family.FoxMovies.com/Movies/Spies-in-Disguise
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: December 25th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for action, violence, and rude humor.
Source: Based on Short Film
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Secret Agent, Shootout, Talking Animals, Human Animal Tranformation, 3-D, 3-D - Shot in 3-D, Animal Lead, Scientific Experiment Gone Awry
Directed By: Nick Bruno, Troy Quane
Written By: Kristen Orlando, Michelle Painchaud, Lucas Martell
Starring: Will Smith, Tom Holland
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $100 million to $120 million
Box Office Potential: $75 million

This film was made by Fox, more specifically by Blue Sky Studios. It bounced around a lot of release dates, showing the studio didn’t know what to do with the film, and that was before the Fox / Disney merger. It finally settled on a Christmas Day release. This is a relatively bad day to open a family film, as it misses the important first weekend of holidays. On the positive side, it is the last animated film for a while, so it could have solid legs, assuming its reviews are at least okay. There are still no reviews, so we will have to wait and see if that happens.