This graph shows Nicholas Hoult’s score on our annual analysis of leading stars at the box office. The Star Score represents points assigned to each of the leading stars of the top 100 movies (based on box office) in the current year and two preceding years. For appearing in the number one movie in a year a star gets 100 points, the number two movie 99 points and so on..
Latest Ranking on Selected Box Office Record Lists
The peak of the holiday season is among us, and per usual, there is no shortage of films available to spark the interest of nearly every moviegoer. Due to the Christmas holiday falling on a Wednesday this year, we see an array of newcomers hitting theaters midweek, looking to take on the current box office victors. It will be an uphill battle, however, as Sonic The Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King are poised to finish out their opening week in first and second place, respectively.
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No less that six new wide releases arrive in theaters this weekend, the most of the post-pandemic era, beating the five wide releases that arrived the weekend of September 16 last year. None of them will come close to beating The Super Mario Bros. Movie in its second weekend. The battle for second place looks interesting though…
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Renfield is the tortured aide to history’s most narcissistic boss, Dracula. Renfield is forced to procure his master’s prey and do his every bidding, no matter how debased. But now, after centuries of servitude, Renfield is ready to see if there’s a life outside the shadow of The Prince of Darkness. If only he can figure out how to end his codependency.
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Sporting an eight-day domestic total of $250 million, The Super Mario Bros. Movie once again finds itself as the widest release as it heads into its second weekend, adding 28 locations for a total of 4,371 cinemas. The animated adventure opened last Wednesday and took in an impressive $204.6 million in its first five days. Mario and friends shouldn’t have any trouble staying on top at the box office despite the arrival of six wide releases making their theatrical debuts.
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Black Panther: Wakanda Forever will easily win its second box office crown this weekend, helped by a lack of direct competition and the tailwinds of a $181-million opening weekend. Our model thinks $70 million will be around a par score for the Marvel movie, and no new release will come within $50 million of that. Three new films come in with a shot at second place: The Menu, She Said, and The Chosen. Of those three, our model thinks The Menu has the best shot at taking that honor.
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After amassing a colossal $181 million in its domestic opening weekend, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever holds steady going into its second weekend, keeping its 4,396 locations from week one. The sequel surpassed $400 million globally on Wednesday, with $213 million coming from North American viewings, while $187 million arrived from overseas markets. Wakanda Forever won’t be challenged this week at the box office, but two new wide releases make their arrival to cinemas, and She Said, and The Menu, should provide options for nearly every taste.
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There are four new wide releases this weekend, a new high point as theaters reopen and the theatrical market continues its recovery. In spite of some fairly impressive star power on display, there’s not a huge amount of doubt about which film will top the chart this weekend. Spiral, the latest incarnation of the Saw franchise is getting the widest release, in 2,811 theaters, and by far the loudest pre-release buzz. The sheer quantity of new films makes this a challenging weekend to predict, but here’s what our model has to say…
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There are several interesting new releases on the streaming platforms this week. The biggest of these is Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, which debuted on Disney+ on Friday. The latest stand-up comic special by Patton Oswalt, I Love Everything, hits Netflix on Tuesday, and I bet it will be great. There are also two TV shows worth checking out, The Great on Hulu and She-Ra and the Princesses of Power on Netflix.
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As the movie industry tries to adapt to the the COVID-19 outbreak, we at The Numbers are adapting with them, although it might take another week or so to get our new columns and schedule set, so bear with us in the meantime. Or bare with us, the choice is yours. Starting today, we will have a new weekly column looking at the films and TV shows hitting popular streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, and Amazon Prime. Of the titles on this week’s list. It is The Banker that has my attention the most.
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Three brilliant visionaries set off in a charged battle for the future in the story of the cutthroat competition that literally lit up the modern world. Thomas Edison is the celebrity inventor on the verge of bringing electricity to Manhattan with his radical new DC technology. On the eve of triumph, his plans are upended by charismatic businessman George Westinghouse, who believes he and his partner, the upstart genius Nikolai Tesla, have a superior idea for how to rapidly electrify America: with AC current. As Edison and Westinghouse grapple for who will power the nation, they spark one of the first and greatest corporate feuds in American history, establishing for future Titans of Industry the need to break all the rules.
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An exploration of the formative years of the renowned author’s life as he finds friendship, courage and inspiration among a fellow group of writers and artists at school. Their brotherhood strengthens as they grow up and weather love and loss together, including Tolkien’s tumultuous courtship of his beloved Edith Bratt, until the outbreak of the First World War which threatens to tear their fellowship apart. All of these experiences would later inspire Tolkien to write his famous Middle-earth novels.
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January turned out to be a good month. Granted, it didn’t live up to last January, but its box office was one of the top five Januarys of all time, so that’s still a good start to the year. Also, we will have our first $100 million movie released in 2017 and that doesn’t happen this early very often. As for February, there’s potentially the first $200 million hit of the year, The Lego Batman Movie. Fifty Shades Darker and The Great Wall both have a shot at $100 million. That said, it is more likely that both will miss that milestone than both will get there. As for the rest of the films, there are a few that are aiming for solid midlevel hits, like John Wick: Chapter Two and Get Out, while there are very few potential bombs. By comparison, last February there was one monster hit, Deadpool, and a lot of bombs. No other movie besides Deadpool made $50 million. No movie opening this month will match Deadpool, but we won’t have as many bombs either, so hopefully that will balance out and 2017 won’t fall further behind 2016.
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There are a handful of films on this week's list earning great reviews and/or loud buzz. Of these four films, Green Room is the one I want to see the most, but Everybody Wants Some is the one most likely to become a box office hit.
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It is still a little too soon to tell how July will finish, as we don't have any numbers for the final weekend at the time of writing. We know Minions was a monster hit and that Ant-man will be a financial success. However, until we see how Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation does, it will be impossible to call the month a true success. If Rogue Nation bombed this weekend, then the month is only a partial success. It would also mean the summer of 2015 could be coming to an abrupt end. As for August, only Fantastic Four has a better than 50/50 chance of reaching $100 million; although some people think Straight Outta Compton also has a shot at that milestone. Besides those two, only a couple of other films even have a realistic shot at becoming midlevel hits. Worse still, last August was amazing with Guardians of the Galaxy breaking records. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles also did better than expected with a domestic haul of nearly $200 million. No release this August is going to match that figure. There's a good chance the top two releases combined won't do so. Fortunately, 2015 has a sizable lead over 2014, so even a soft month will keep 2015 ahead in the year-over-year comparison.
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April is over and there was good news and bad news. Good news: Furious 7 crushed the competition, and broke records along the way. Bad news: Furious 7 crushed the competition and no other April release will earn as much in total as Furious 7 earned during its opening day. Fortunately, Furious 7 was so strong that it carried April of 2015 to a draw when compared to April of 2014. May has a lot of similarities to April. The Avengers: Age of Ultron is expected to break records during its opening weekend and even the low end has it earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Unfortunately, no other film is going to come close to that figure. There are five other films with a potential to reach $100 million at the box office. The keyword there is "potential". There's a chance less than half of those five films will get to that milestone. And like last April, last May had much better depth with five films that reached $100 million, including four that surpassed $200 million. Age of Ultron will earn more than the combined totals of Maleficent, last month's winner, and X-Men: Days of Future Past, which placed second for the month. I am a little concerned about the lack of depth this month and this could cause May to lose in the month-over-month comparison in the end.
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Life After Beth opened with strong buzz, especially for a limited release, but the reviews were mixed and it struggled to find an audience in theaters. It also debuted on Video on Demand, so that didn't help its box office numbers. Now that it is out on the home market, is it worth a look? And is the Blu-ray worth picking up?
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Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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Warm Bodies was released in theaters in early February, which is a bad time of the year to release a film. Additionally, the early buzz was bad. A lot of people saw the basic premise (romance between a zombie boy and a living girl) and thought it was just another Twilight rip-off. The first trailer showed it was something different, but sometimes first impressions are lasting impressions. Fortunately it was able to top expectations and became a surprise midlevel hit. Will it continue to perform well on the home market? And did the studio thank those who made it a hit in theaters by releasing a fully loaded DVD / Blu-ray?
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February is over, and for the most part, we should be very happy it is done and buried. The biggest hit of the month turned out to be Identity Thief, which will cross $100 million shortly. There were also a couple of impressive midlevel hits, like Warm Bodies and Escape from Planet Earth, but for the most part, it was miss after miss. This is bad news for March, which is not only dealing with a slumping 2013 box office, but will be compared with a strong March of 2012. Last March started with The Lorax, which earned more than $200 million. There's a good chance no March release this year will reach this milestone. Last March was also the month The Hunger Games opened, which earned more than $400 million. There's a chance the top three films opening this month won't earn that much combined. 2013 is going to take a beating in the year-over-year comparison and it is already $100 million behind last year's pace.
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For the most part, January was a really good month and 2013 got off to a really good start. I'm not so sure about February, on the other hand. There's only one film that has a statistically significant shot at $100 million, A Good Day to Die Hard, but I'm a little concerned that it won't live up to expectations. The franchise has been around a long time and it is possible that the target audience has either moved on or are too young to remember when these films were huge at the box office. The film I'm most looking forward to seeing is Warm Bodies, which is earning amazing early reviews (the keyword there is "early"), but it is too high-concept to be a major hit. Last February, there were a coupleof films that topped $100 million, plus a few other midlevel hits. I would like to think that would also be the case this year, but I have to be more cautious than that. The evidence points to a weak month ahead, for the most part.
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February begins with two wide releases, Warm Bodies and Bullet to the Head. Both will have to deal with holdovers, and more importantly, The Super Bowl. Bullet to the Head's target audience is nearly identical to that for the Super Bowl, while at least Warm Bodies has at least some chance of a breakout success. Last year there were three wide releases, two of which opened with more than $20 million. It is going to be almost impossible for 2013 to match that result.
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