The Numbers News - November 2013
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Limited Releases: Long Walk to Success
November 29, 2013
It's not a good week on the limited release front. There's only a couple of films earning overwhelmingly positive reviews: Cousin Jules and The Punk Singer. The former just screams art house and has little hope of finding mainstream audiences. The latter might do better, but it still will be limited to the art house circuit. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom has the most mainstream appeal, but its reviews are only good and not great.
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Contest: Out of the Fire
November 29, 2013
Next weekend is the weekend after Thanksgiving day, and like it is nearly every year, it's a really weak week for new releases. In fact, there's only one film that might open wide, Out of the Furnace, and I'm not 100% sure it will. Additionally, it is opening on the Wednesday, while we only look at the Friday through Sunday numbers. Regardless, we need a target film for our box office prediction contest and this is the only choice. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Out of the Furnace.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Rise of the Guardians Holiday Edition with Marching Elf on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Kung Fu Panda: Legends of Awesomeness - Good Croc, Bad Croc on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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2014 - Awards Season: Slave Earns Independence
November 28, 2013
Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations.
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Weekend Predictions: Fire vs. Ice
November 27, 2013
Thanksgiving long weekend won't be remembered for the quality of the films opening wide. In fact, of the three new releases on this week's list, only one of them is truly opening wide. Homefront is debuting in 2,500 theaters, while Black Nativity is only opening in 1,500. Oldboy is only opening in 600 theaters, but it still has a reasonable shot at the top ten. If it weren't for the wide expansion of Frozen and hopefully a strong hold by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, the weekend would be a write-off. As it is, 2013 should crush 2012... mostly because there is a misalignment and this weekend last year was the weekend after Thanksgiving. The post holiday slump meant the top five was only able to bring in a little under $75 million. I'm not saying Catching Fire will top that number, at least not over three days, but it should clear at least that much over the next five days.
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International Box Office: World Catches Fire
November 27, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire had its first wide weekend on the international chart after debuting in Brazil last weekend. It shot up to first place with $146.1 million in 65 markets, including two weeks in Brazil. The film was very strong compared to The Hunger Games in most markets, this was noticeable in the U.K., where it earned $19.8 million compared to $7.78 million for the first film. Germany's haul was $14 million, more than three times the $4.26 million for the original. It grew in Australia as well, but by a more subdued margin of $11.4 million to $9.48 million.
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Contest: Catch'Em All: Winning Announcement
November 26, 2013
The winners of our Catch'Em All contest were determined and they are...
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IMAX: The Hunger Games Devours Another Record
November 26, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opened on IMAX scoring $12.6 million in 347 IMAX theaters domestically and $5.4 million internationally for an $18 million opening. It earned a per screen average of $36,300, which is the best ever for a November release, topping Skyfall. Overall, IMAX theaters pulled in $25.7 million worldwide, which was the second best weekend for the format.
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Per Theater Chart: Frozen has a Hot Opening
November 26, 2013
Frozen begun its short prestige release before its wide expansion on Wednesday and it was fantastic. The film pulled in $243,390 in one theater giving it the best per theater average for the year so far, topping Blue Jasmine and pushing Spring Breakers into third place. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire was in a distant second place with an average of $37,971 in more than 4,000 theaters. Philomena did very well with an average of $32,109 in four theaters. The Great Beauty remained in the $10,000 club with an average of $17,452 in three theaters. Nebraska rounded out the $10,000 club with an average of $11,634 in 28 theaters. It should continue to expand and start hitting major milestones.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Catching Fire Burns Bright, But Not Quite as Bright as Predicted
November 25, 2013
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire easily won first place at the box office this past weekend and it even broke the record for biggest opening weekend in November. Even so, its opening seems a little disappointing, because some analysts were predicting an opening of more than $180 million. The overall box office was still huge at $226 million. This was nearly $100 million or 80% more than last weekend. This was also higher than the same weekend last year by 9%. Unfortunately, 2013 is still behind 2012 by 1.4% at $9.28 billion to $9.41 billion.
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Final Weekend Numbers
November 25, 2013
Final weekend numbers:
- 3-Day Weekend Friday-Sunday
- Friday Daily Numbers
- Saturday Daily Numbers
- Sunday Daily Numbers
We are now publishing our weekend and daily charts with updates as they are received from the studios. Most major studios, and many independent distributors report by about 1pm, Pacific Time and final numbers are available by 3.30pm. To be included in our charts, please send box office reports and release schedule updates to bodata@the-numbers.com.
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DVD and Blu-ray Releases for November 26th, 2013
November 25, 2013
It's a pretty soft week when it comes to new releases. This is not surprising, as it is also Thanksgiving long weekend starting on Wednesday. These releases are only going to be out one day before they are overshadowed by sales. Fortunately, there are a couple of releases that stand out. The biggest of these, and the best, is Breaking Bad: The Final Season. The DVD or the Blu-ray could be a contender for Pick of the Week even during the busiest week. However, I think that honor should go to the show's Blu-ray Megaset. It is expensive, but it is worth it. An honorable mention goes to Mystery Science Theater 3000: 25th Anniversary Edition.
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Weekend Projections: Catching Fire Takes November Record
November 24, 2013
As expected, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire topped Delivery Man to win at the box office this weekend. OK, topped is perhaps an understatement when the gap between the two movies is about $150 million. Catching Fire will easily record the biggest November weekend of all time, topping The Twilight Saga: New Moon. It's also heading towards the 4th-biggest weekend of all time, per Lionsgate's Sunday estimate, although there's a good chance it'll end up just behind The Dark Knight Rises' $160.8 million from last year. It will definitely end behind Iron Man 3's $174 million from earlier this year, but continued big earnings for Catching Fire over Thanksgiving means that this year's box office championship race is about to get interesting.
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2013 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part I
November 24, 2013
Thanksgiving is less than a week away and that means Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and a ton of shopping. It also means the first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide. Over the next month, we will talk about TV on DVD releases, independent releases, foreign language releases, classics, etc. but this week we start with Major Movie Releases. These are first run releases, franchise box sets, etc. However, this year seems weaker than years past. Last year the biggest new release was The Avengers, which was also one of the best reviewed wide releases of the year. This year the biggest release is Iron Man 3, which earned good reviews, but not great reviews. Last year there were a ton of franchise box sets. This year has been pretty barren. In fact, I think the only franchise box set that's truly new and really worth picking up is...
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Bill Cosby... Far From Finished
November 23, 2013
It has been 26 years since Bill Cosby: 49 aired in 1987, which was the last time Bill Cosby had a TV special. Now he makes his Comedy Central debut with ... Far From Finished. Does he still have what it takes at age 76? Or has stand-up comedy changed too much in the past 26 years?
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Red 2
November 23, 2013
Red opened in the fall of 2010 and became a surprise hit. When you think of action films, you generally don't think of retirees. The combined age of the four actors who played the retired secrets agents was 250 years old when the movie came out. But because the film was something different, it won over critics and moviegoers. Needless to say, they started working on a sequel soon after. However, when Red 2 came out, it wasn't as successful at the box office or with critics. Is it really weaker? Is it so weak that it isn't worth checking out if you liked the first one?
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Limited Releases: Limited Releases are Frozen Out
November 22, 2013
This week's list of limited releases is kind of mixed. Frozen is coming out this week for a prestige opening before expanding wide on Wednesday and it is virtually guaranteed box office success. On the other hand, most of the rest of the films are documentaries, which almost never have breakout success. Every documentary on this list looks interesting, but of the non-Frozen releases, I think Philomena has the best shot at box office success.
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Contest: FREEZE!
November 22, 2013
There are three wide releases next week, Black Nativity, Homefront, and Oldboy. Unfortunately none of them are expected to be even midlevel hits. Fortunately, there's one other option, Frozen. Frozen opened in one theater on Friday the 22nd before expanding wide on Wednesday the 27th. Normally we don't like to use films that have already opened, but it is still the best choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Frozen.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), regardless if they go over or not, will win a copy of Impractical Jokers: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: How Hot will Catching Fire Burn?
November 22, 2013
The weekend before Thanksgiving is one of the best weekends of the year to release a monster hit, and this year we get The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. If Catching Fire doesn't break the record for biggest opening weekend in November, it will be seen as a huge shock. It has a chance at topping Iron Man 3's opening weekend and securing top spot for the year. Catching Fire isn't the only film opening wide this weekend, but to call Delivery Man counter-programing is an understatement. It might not crack $10 million, but that will still be enough to earn a spot in the top five. This weekend last year was the Thanksgiving long weekend, so it is a little hard to compare the two and judge which one is stronger. Catching Fire should easily earn more than the top five did over the three-day weekend, perhaps even more than the top six or seven earned, but the real test will come next weekend when we can compare this Thanksgiving to last year's.
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Contest: Best of Luck: Winning Announcement
November 21, 2013
The winner of our Best of Luck contest was determined and it is...
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International Box Office: Thor 2 Overtakes Original
November 20, 2013
Thor: The Dark World completed the hat trick earning first place for the third weekend in a row. It pulled in $52.5 million on 3,841 screens in 69 markets for totals of $332.8 million internationally and $477.9 million worldwide. This is already more than the original Thor finished with and possibly already enough to break even. (It depends on its global P&A budget.) The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did debut in first place in Argentina with $1.73 million on 256 screens. Its biggest market so far is China at $41.8 million, while Russia is second with $32.07 million. The film has yet to open in Italy and Japan, so it might hit a few more milestones. On the other hand, it will surrender top spot this weekend to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
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Per Theater Chart: Everyone Takes a Trip to Nebraska
November 20, 2013
Nebraska led the way on the per theater average with an average of $35,100 in four theaters. This is not as strong as Alexander Payne's previous release, especially if you take into account the difference in the theater count between the two films. The Great Beauty was next with $23,442 in its lone theater. The Best Man Holiday was the only wide release to crack the $10,000 club earning an average of $14,875 during its opening weekend. The Book Thief and The Christmas Candle were right behind with averages of $14,501 and $14,140 respectively.
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DVD and Blu-ray Releases for November 19th, 2013
November 20, 2013
There are some good releases this week, but it is also a shallow week. If you look at Amazon.com's list of new releases, by the third or fourth page, you will find more filler than releases worth talking about. On the other hand, there are a number of late releases that finally arrived and I was able to get done. There are a number of contenders for Pick of the Week this week, including Doctor Who Story 29: The Tenth Planet, which is a must have for all Whovians. Kinky Boots is a very fun movie and you can't beat the price of the DVD. On the other hand, the Star Trek: The Next Generation Blu-ray releases for Season Five and Unification are expensive, but worth it for fans. In the end, I went with The World's End on Blu-ray Combo Pack for Pick of the Week.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Best Man Bests Prediction, Thor Still Powers Through
November 19, 2013
As expected, Thor: The Dark World led the way on the weekend box office chart. However, The Best Man Holiday was surprisingly strong and helped soften the blow at the overall box office. Even so, the box office was down 26% from the last weekend at $125 million. A 26% drop-off is bad, but the year-over-year comparison was even worse. So much worse. Compared to this weekend last year when The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 debut, the box office was down almost exactly 50%. And with that, 2013 is no longer ahead of 2012's pace. It was bound to happen with the weak box office numbers recently. Granted, 2013 is only behind by 0.4% at $9.02 billion to $9.06 and one really good weekend could reverse that situation. In fact, the opening of The Hunger Games: Catching Fire this coming weekend could reverse that situation, but 2013 will be neck-and-neck with 2012 from here on out, instead of the solid leads it held for much of the year.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The World's End
November 18, 2013
The World's End is the final film of the Three Flavours Cornetto Trilogy. The first two films were Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz. This film was the least financially successful of the three films, but is it also the weakest? If so, is it so weak that it isn't worth checking out?
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Featured DVD Review: Breaking the Girls
November 18, 2013
Breaking the Girls came out in limited release in July, but was not a hit with moviegoers or critics. In fact, it has so far earned zero positive reviews. Will I disagree with the other critics? Or is there a reason none of the critics on Rotten Tomatoes recommended the movie?
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Final Weekend Numbers
November 18, 2013
Final weekend numbers:
- 3-Day Weekend Friday-Sunday
- Friday Daily Numbers
- Saturday Daily Numbers
- Sunday Daily Numbers
We are now publishing our weekend and daily charts with updates as they are received from the studios. Most major studios, and many independent distributors report by about 1pm, Pacific Time and final numbers are available by 3.30pm. To be included in our charts, please send box office reports and release schedule updates to bodata@the-numbers.com.
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Featured DVD Review: Kinky Boots
November 18, 2013
Kinky Boots came out in 2006 and did relatively well in limited release. Most limited releases don't crack the $1 million mark at the box office. But I think the studio was hoping for a whole lot more. This explains why it is coming out on DVD this week as a bargain release from Echo Bridge. Is it worth checking out if you missed it the first time? And despite being a bargain release, does it have any extras?
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Planes
November 17, 2013
Planes started out as a direct-to-DVD sequel, but sometime during production, someone decided the script was good enough to be made into a theatrical release. This isn't the first time this has happened. Return to Neverland took the same route. That film wasn't loved by critics, but it did well for its production budget. Planes was huge at the box office, pulling in more than $200 million worldwide, which is much more than a lot of people thought it would pull in. Did it do so well because it was also better than expected? Or did it thrive because it was the last animated film of the summer, so it had no competition?
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(Updated) Weekend Projections: Thor Almost Bested By Best Man Holiday
November 17, 2013
Although it's still the calm before the storm that will be Catching Fire next weekend, this weekend has a healthy look to it thanks to a stronger-than-expected debut for The Best Man Holiday, which will post about $30.5 million according to Universal's Sunday projection, more than three times the debut figure for the previous film in the franchise. That won't be enough to unseat Thor at the top of the chart though. The Marvel superhero will post about $38 million, down a reasonable 55% from its opening frame. Most other returning films are enjoying good holds too.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Star Trek: The Next Generation: Unification
November 17, 2013
This is the third two-part episode from Star Trek: The Next Generation to be released as a stand-alone Blu-ray, but it is not a season finale. Those made sense to release, because it is in someways unfair to make someone wait to finish a two-part episode when the show has been off air for a couple decades. But both parts Unification are coming out on Blu-ray the same day on the Season Five Blu-ray. So is it really worth it to buy it separately?
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Star Trek: The Next Generation: Season Five
November 16, 2013
We are more than halfway through the seven-year run of Star Trek: The Next Generation. The first two seasons were a little rough, but by season three and season four it had really hit its stride. How does season five compare?
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Way Way Back
November 15, 2013
The Way Way Back is written by Nat Faxon and Jim Rash. For most of their careers, they have been actors. However, they wrote the script for The Descendants, which won them an Oscar. This time around, they not only co-wrote the screenplay, but co-directed the film as well. Was The Descendants a fluke? Or do they have another critical darling on their hands?
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Limited Releases: Dear Limited Releases
November 15, 2013
There are not a lot of limited releases on this week's list, but there are a few that are intriguing. Nebraska has the best reviews and an excellent pedigree. Dear Mr. Watterson is a good choice for fans of Calvin and Hobbes. While Faust is earning good enough reviews to be worth checking out, even if it will be overshadowed by some of the Oscar contenders out there.
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Contest: Catch'Em All
November 15, 2013
It's a really easy week to pick the target film for the Box Office Prediction Contest. Granted, there's more than one wide release next week, but The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will crush Delivery Man at the box office. Catching Fire will likely make more during its midnight showings than Delivery Man will make during the whole weekend. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of JFK - A New World Order on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of JFK - A New World Order on Blu-ray Combo Pack.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Holiday Between Blockbusters
November 14, 2013
Last weekend, Thor: The Dark World made its debut. Next weekend, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire opens up. With these two monster hits opening so close together, it comes as no surprise that this weekend there are not a lot of new releases. In fact, we only have The Best Man Holiday as a wide release. It won't be able to score top spot, but the lack of direct competition should help it score a solid second place. On the down side, this weekend last year The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2 opened with $141.07 million, which is very likely more than the entire box office will make this season.
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International Box Office: Thor 2 Still Strong Second Time Around
November 14, 2013
Thor: The Dark World debuted last weekend, but thanks to a number of new markets this weekend, it was even more dominant on the international chart. It pulled in $94 million in 66 markets, which lifts its running tally to $240.9 million internationally and $326.6 million worldwide. Its biggest market was China where it made $20.98 million. In comparison, Thor made about $15 million there, in total. This is incredible growth. It grew in Russia rising to $11.44 million on 1,500 screens for a total of $24.04 million after two weeks of release. The original Thor finished with $268.30 million internationally, which is a figure Thor 2 will smash through by the weekend. It might make more internationally than the first film made worldwide and it could help Disney break the all-time single year global box office record, currently at $3.791 billion, which it earned in 2010.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Mad Men: Season Six
November 13, 2013
Season Six of Mad Men is the penultimate season for the show. This is bittersweet for fans, because a lot of them will be losing their favorite show. Also, it makes the expectations really high. Fans will demand the show go off on high note and any sign of a decrease in quality might send them off in a panic. Are there reasons to panic? Or does it look like the seventh and final season will be a great send off for the show?
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Analysis: The Numbers Bankability Index Under the Covers
November 13, 2013
On Tuesday we launched The Numbers Bankability Index, a new service to help assess the value that different people bring to the industry, from actors and actresses to directors, screenwriters, producers, and anyone else involved in the creative process of making a movie. In this article, I'll look more deeply into how the Index is compiled, and how we use the tools behind it to analyze questions about people in movies.
If you haven't already, now's a good time to look at our announcement video, and the November Edition of the Worldwide Bankability Index.
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Featured Blu-ray Review: The Three Faces of Eve
November 13, 2013
The Three Faces of Eve first came out in 1957 and was groundbreaking in its portrayal of mental illness. It stars Joanne Woodward in only her third theatrical release. However, despite being practically unknown to moviegoers, she won an Oscar for her performance in this film. On the other hand, 1957 was a long time ago and what was Oscar-worthy then might not have aged well.
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Contest: In the Dark: Winning Announcement
November 12, 2013
The winners of our In the Dark contest were determined and they are...
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Per Theater Chart: Thief Steals Top Spot
November 12, 2013
The Book Thief was a surprise top spot with an average of $26,251 in four theaters. It was seen by some as a possible Awards Season contender, but its reviews suggest otherwise. Thor: The Dark World was first on the overall box office and second on the per theater chart with $22,322. Dallas Buyers Club fell from first to third on the per theater chart, but with a still strong average of $18,249 in 35 theaters.
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Introducing The Numbers Bankability Index
November 12, 2013
More...Weekend Wrap-Up: Thor Sees the Light
November 11, 2013
Thor: The Dark World matched expectations nearly perfectly and dominated the box office over the weekend. In fact, it earned more than the rest of the box office pulled in combined. This helped the overall box office rise 32% from last weekend reaching $167 million. Unfortunately, Thor couldn't match Skyfall's opening weekend and the total box office was 3% lower than the same weekend last year. 2013 is still ahead of 2012, but by 0.9% at $8.85 million to $8.77 million. Since there is only one new release next weekend, and it isn't a prime release, we will likely see another year-over-year loss. Fortunately, 2013 should still stay ahead of 2012 and Catching Fire should end 2013's losing streak in a big way.
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DVD and Blu-ray Releases for November 12th, 2013
November 11, 2013
There are a number of good releases this week. The two biggest releases are Man of Steel and Turbo. While the former has a larger target audience, the latter is the better film. It is still not Pick of the Week material. The best films are some of the smaller releases, like The Attack, Barbara, Blackfish, City Lights, and Prince Avalanche. All of those are worth picking up, but I think Nosferatu on Blu-ray is the Pick of the Week.
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Final Weekend Numbers
November 11, 2013
Final weekend numbers:
- 3-Day Weekend Friday-Sunday
- Friday Daily Numbers
- Saturday Daily Numbers
- Sunday Daily Numbers
We are now publishing our weekend and daily charts with updates as they are received from the studios. Most major studios, and many independent distributors report by about 1pm, Pacific Time and final numbers are available by 3.30pm. To be included in our charts, please send box office reports and release schedule updates to bodata@the-numbers.com.
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Featured DVD Review: Dealin' with Idiots
November 10, 2013
Jeff Garlin directorial debut was I Want Someone To Eat Cheese With, which earned very good reviews, even if it struggled to find an audience in theaters. He followed that film with Dealin' with Idiots, which sadly didn't live up to the first film either critically or fiscally. Was it unfairly attacked? Or is it much worse than his directorial debut?
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Weekend Estimates: Thor Starts the Holidays with a Powerful Opening
November 10, 2013
Thor: The Dark World gets the holiday season off to a start this weekend with a powerful display at the box office. Disney is pegging its opening weekend at $86.8 million, which will be a healthy 30% boost from the debut of the first film in the franchise and also one of the ten biggest weekends in November. It's the first film in the Avengers über-franchise to open outside of the May-July Summer season, but that certainly doesn't seemed to have harmed it at the box office, and it won't have much competition until Catching Fire opens in a couple of weeks' time. All said, it looks a virtual certainty to top the box office performance of the original.
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Featured DVD Review: Grabbers
November 10, 2013
Grabbers is an Irish / British horror comedy that opened in its native market last summer while it earned a limited release here this summer. Horror comedies rarely do well in limited release and this film wasn't an exception. On the other hand, films like this tend to do relatively well on the home market. Will that be the case? Can this film find a cult appeal on DVD?
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Dexter: Season Eight
November 9, 2013
This is the final season of Dexter, but instead of being excited, I'm more than a little worried. Season six and seven failed to live up to the standards set in previous seasons. As a result, I'm concerned the show will end on a low note instead of going out on a high. Were these concerns justified? Or was I being too pessimistic?
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Limited Releases: Lying about Limited Releases
November 8, 2013
There are quite a few limited releases on this week's list, including several that have earned more pre-release buzz that most limited releases earn. However, many of these films' reviews are good, but not great. The Book Thief is one such film, but it could still find an audience in limited release, although its plans to expand wide are very unlikely to happen. How I Live Now and Great Expectations are in similar positions.
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Contest: Best of Luck
November 8, 2013
Next week there is only one wide release, but unlike this week, its rather weak. The Best Man Holiday has the weekend to itself, but will very likely get crushed by Thor: The Dark World at the box office. Even so, since it is the only wide release, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Best Man Holiday.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Kinky Boots on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Kinky Boots on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Thor Will Rule, But Will It Crack $100 Million?
November 8, 2013
Thor: The Dark World will easily win the race for the top of the box office this weekend. It really has no competition for top spot, and only token competition as far as new releases are concerned. About Time is the only other new wide release, and quite frankly, I should add quotes around both "new" and "wide", as it opened in limited release last weekend, will expand to 1,400 theaters this weekend and it likely won't reach the top five. It will be interesting to see if Ender's Game will hold up next to the competition from Thor, but that seems unlikely. Thor: The Dark World could do well when compared to last year's number one film, Skyfall, but 2013 just doesn't have the depth to thrive, so 2013 will lose again in the year-over-year comparison.
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Introducing Our New Web Site Design
November 7, 2013
We're pleased to reveal a new look for The Numbers today, and a lot of new features and functionality along with it. Today's initial roll-out introduces a new layout to the site, which includes a more modern and cleaner design, and much more compact presentation of data, particularly on the movie and people pages. From a functional standpoint, it includes the addition of Blu-ray sales totals and a box office trend chart to our movie pages, analysis of each of the 65,000+ people in the database, covering their best-known roles, the people they have worked most productively with, and the role they most often perform in making a movie. On the home market front, we have added weekly and annual combined packaged media sales charts to go with our traditional DVD and Blu-ray charts. We've also revamped our budgets and finances pages to give a more sophisticated analysis of the most profitable films, and the biggest money losers. And this is just the beginning...
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International Box Office: Thor Brightens the Day
November 7, 2013
Thor: The Dark World made its international debut a week ahead of its domestic debut and it crushed the competition with $109.4 million in 36 markets. Its biggest market was the U.K., where it earned first place with $13.80 million on 522 screens. By comparison, the first Thor film managed $9.11 million on 500. If the film has a similar increase in its opening weekend here, it could open with $100 million. That's probably too optimistic; it did show growth in most major markets, just not as much as it did in the U.K. France was the second best new market with an opening of $9.94 million on 609 screens, compared to $8.69 million for its predecessor. Germany and Mexico were neck-and-neck with $8.31 million on 620 screens and $8.26 million on 2,482 respectively. Russia was strong with $7.59 million on 769 screens. Australia made $6.80 million on 609 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $6.98 million. Brazil was close behind with $6.69 million on 1,090 screens. In South Korea it made $6.11 million on 843 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.63 million. The only major market to see a decrease was Spain, where the film made $3.34 million on 717 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.82 million. By comparison, Thor made $5.58 million on 562 screens.
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Contest: Game of Chance: Winning Announcement
November 7, 2013
The winner of our Game of Chance contest was determined and it is...
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Per Theater Chart: Buyers Market
November 7, 2013
Dallas Buyers Club took top spot on the per theater chart with an average of $28,985 in nine theaters. Add in its reviews and this is a great start. 12 Years a Slave was finally pushed out of top spot, but it still has a very strong showing with an average of $11,688 in more than 400 theaters.
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DVD and Blu-ray Releases for November 5th, 2013
November 7, 2013
It's a big week with several first run releases, some big TV on DVD, releases, and more to deal with. The only one that truly rises to the level of Pick of the Week is Mad Men: Season Six, but the screener arrived late and I hate awarding Pick of the Week to a title when that happens. The only other release I really want to see is White House Down, but that's more guilty pleasure than Pick of the Week. I guess it goes to Mad Men: Season Six on DVD or Blu-ray.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Ender Has Game, but Box Office Sinks
November 6, 2013
As anticipated, Ender's Game won the weekend race with ease and no individual film truly bombed. That said, the overall effort was still lacking. Compared to last weekend, the overall box office was up 23% to $127 million, which is nice to see. However, and more importantly, this was 8% lower than the same weekend last year, thus ending 2013's winning streak at one weekend. 2013 is still ahead of 2012's pace, but by a shrinking margin. Currently, this year is ahead of last year by less than 0.5% at $8.66 billion to $8.62 billion. It wouldn't take much to 2013 to lose the lead at this point, and this might happen sometime during this month. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should end any losing streak when it is released, but perhaps not before 2013 falls behind 2012's pace.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Under the Dome
November 5, 2013
Under the Dome is a book written by Stephen King in 2009. Reviews for the book were really good and it wasn't long before talk of an adaptation was in work. Since the book was so massive, it was clearly going to have to be a mini-series, but that's where things get a little complicated.
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Featured Blu-ray Review: Twilight Forever: The Complete Saga Box Set
November 5, 2013
Twilight came out in 2008 to a mixture of high buzz and abject horror. There were a lot of people who were major fans of the book series by Stephenie Meyer, while others consider Stephenie Meyer the worst author of all time. That might be a bit harsh. The first movie opened with mixed reviews, but smashed through all expectations with nearly $200 million domestically. A year later, New Moon came out and despite earning just 27% positive reviews. That's awful any way you look at it, but even so, it earned nearly $300 million at the box office. Clearly this franchise is critic-proof and I'm under no delusion that any of my criticisms will stop anyone from buying this 10-disc Blu-ray box set. I'm so convinced that no one will change their minds over my opinion of the movie that I'm going to keep that portion of the review to a minimum and concentrate on the extras instead. After all, anyone interested in this box set has already made up their mind about the movie and just want to know if this box set has enough extras to be worth the price.
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Final Weekend Numbers
November 4, 2013
Final weekend numbers:
- 3-Day Weekend Friday-Sunday
- Friday Daily Numbers
- Saturday Daily Numbers
- Sunday Daily Numbers
We are now publishing our weekend and daily charts with updates as they are received from the studios. Most major studios, and many independent distributors report by about 1pm, Pacific Time and final numbers are available by 3.30pm. To be included in our charts, please send box office reports and release schedule updates to bodata@the-numbers.com.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Lovelace
November 3, 2013
When Lovelace was first announced, there was a lot of good buzz surrounding it. The film is a biopic of Linda Lovelace, arguably the first porn star that had mainstream name recognition. However, when it finally hit theaters, the critical response was mixed and it failed to find an audience in theaters. Is it busted Oscar bait? Or does it deserve a second chance to find an audience?
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Featured Blu-ray Review: Disney Christmas Double-Shot: Mickey's Christmas Carol and A Very Merry Pooh Year
November 3, 2013
This week there is a double-shot of Disney Christmas specials making their debut on Blu-ray. Mickey's Christmas Carol has been released more than once, including on Volume 7 of the Walt Disney Animation Collection, which I previously reviewed. The second is A Very Merry Pooh Year, a Winnie the Pooh special from 2002. Are either of them worth checking out? And how do they look on Blu-ray?
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Weekend Estimates: Ender's Game Leads Trio of Openers
November 3, 2013
As expected, Ender's Game will comfortably win this weekend's box office race with an opening in the vicinity of $28 million. That's a healthy figure, but barely gets it into the top 100 openings in November and it'll be footnote by the time Thor and The Hunger Games have rolled out in a few week's time. It seems well short of what would be needed for a sequel to be greenlit. Free Birds will also not enjoy a theatrical sequel (although direct-to-video spin-offs seem likely) as it will open with around $16 million, but CBS Films is very happy with the $16 million debut of Last Vegas, which will benefit from an older demographic in the weeks to come.
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Limited Releases: Buying Into Limited Releases
November 1, 2013
After last week's short list, there are nearly 20 films on this week's list. Because of this, each entry will be shorter than usual. There are a few films on this week's list that seem destined for mainstream success, including Dallas Buyers Club, which could net Matthew McConaughey some Awards Season hardware.
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Contest: In the Dark
November 1, 2013
Next week there is only one wide release, but it is nearly a guaranteed monster hit: Thor: The Dark World. Since it is the only wide release, it is the only choice for the target film for this week's box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Thor: The Dark World.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Degrassi: Season 12 on DVD.
Meanwhile, whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Degrassi: Season 12 on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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2013 Preview: November
November 1, 2013
October ended on a winning note, but it was the only time the entire month that 2013 topped 2012 in the year-over-year comparison. This is quite shocking, as Gravity crushed expectations with more than $200 million and counting. Even with that surprise monster hit, the month still couldn't keep pace with last year. Compared to October, November looks a lot better with three films that could be monster hits: Frozen, Thor: The Dark World, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. On the other hand, those are the only three movies with a 50/50 chance or better to top $100 million compared, while there were seven films that reached that milestone last November. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire should make more than last year's number one film, Skyfall, but the depth last year could prove too much to deal with. 2013 might dip below last year's pace sometime during the month, but hopefully it won't stay there too long.
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