Weekend Predictions: Will Moviegoers Get Out to the Theater This Weekend?

February 23, 2017

Get Out

There are three films opening wide this weekend, which is a surprise. The buzz for Collide and Rock Dog are so quiet that I’m surprised they are playing in more than 2,000 theaters and I will be equally surprised if they open above the Mendoza Line by averaging more than $2,000 per theater. On the other hand, Get Out has nearly 100 reviews and its Tomatometer Score is 100% positive. It could be a surprise smash hit. Then again... It could be another Keanu. If that happens, The Lego Batman Movie will earn its third first-place finish in a row. That’s would be bad news for the overall box office. This weekend last year there were a similar selection of new releases. Gods of Egypt struggled while the other two new releases bombed, and only Deadpool saved the box office. If Get Out matches Deadpool’s total weekend of $31 million this time last year, I will be so happy. I don’t think it will happen, but it could be close.

Get Out is the directorial debut for Jordan Peele, who is best known for writing and starring in comedy shows like MADtv and Key and Peele. So it is a little strange his directorial debut would be a politically charged horror film. Fortunately, no matter how strange that is, its 100% positive reviews make all of those concerns go away. There are some reports that the film is tracking better than Split did just before its opening, and that film opened with over $40 million. However, I think that’s too optimistic. Over $30 million is possible, but not likely. $25 million would be seen as acceptable, but a little disappointing, given the reviews. I’m going with $27 million, but I hope I’m pleasantly surprised.

The Lego Batman Movie will slip to second place with $19 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $133 million. By next weekend, the film will have earned enough money domestically to cover its entire production budget, while its international numbers will put a serious dent in the global P&A budget. It will break even. It is just a matter of time.

The rest of the top five will be really close together. Fifty Shades Darker should earn third place with just over $9 million, putting it ahead of $100 million in the process. It would just need to match that figure internationally to break even early in its home market run. In reality, it already has nearly $200 million internationally and probably has already broken even.

The Great Wall won’t be as lucky. It is going to fall more than 50% to just under $9 million over the weekend for a total of about $35 million. It will start losing theaters relatively soon and could be gone before it hits $50 million domestically. It needed to find a significant audience outside of its native China, but that’s not happening so far.

John Wick: Chapter Two should round out the top five with just over $8 million over the weekend for a total of $74 million. It likely won’t get to $100 million domestically, but it will earn more here than the first film earned worldwide. That’s impressive growth at the box office.

Collide is a British crime thriller that was stuck in development hell because its original distributor went bankrupt. Now that it is finally getting a theatrical release, not a lot of people care. The buzz is very quiet. The reviews may or may not help. There is only one review on Rotten Tomatoes, which is a bad sign, but at least it is positive. It is playing in just over 2,000 theaters, so it only needs to earn just over $4 million to avoid the Mendoza Line. I don’t think it will get there, but it should be relatively close.

On the other hand, Rock Dog looks like it will bomb. The film has no buzz, it is earning mixed reviews, and it bombed in its native China. All of this suggests a $3 million opening, maybe less.

- Get Out Comparisons
- Collide Comparisons
- Rock Dog Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, The Lego Batman Movie, Collide, The Great Wall, Fifty Shades Darker, John Wick: Chapter Two, Split, Get Out, Rock Dog, Jordan Peele