Friday Estimates: Pacific Rim Rises to Meet Expectations
March 24, 2018
As expected, Pacific Rim: Uprising earned first place on Friday. In fact, its opening day box office of $10.36 million is actually a little better than expected and it is on pace for a $26 million opening weekend. Granted, this is a terrible opening compared to the film’s production budget, which is reportedly in the $155 million to $175 million range. Neither its reviews, nor its B-rating from CinemaScore will help its legs, but this film was never made to win over domestic audiences. It was made to shine in Asia, specifically China. It is too soon to tell for sure if that’s a viable strategy, or if Universal is going to have to suck up massive losses. Based on Friday numbers, the studio is predicting a $65 million opening weekend China alone and a $120.5 million international debut. That’s obviously better than here, but the film will need at least $400 million internationally to break even any time soon.
Black Panther fell 41% from last Friday, earning $4.39 million. This puts it on pace for just under $16 million over the weekend, which is on par with our prediction. In fact, it is a little on the high end. Additionally, by the end of the weekend, it will climb ahead of The Avengers to become the biggest domestic hit in the MCU, at least for now. Infinity War is set to break records when it debuts at the end of April, so the news only likely to get better for Disney.
I Can Only Imagine held on a lot better than expected. Niche market films tend to open big as their target audience rushes out to theaters, because they don’t get a lot of options, but then crossover audiences don’t show up to boost later weekends. That’s not the case here, as the film fell just 39% from its opening Friday, earning $3.79 million. It should earn $13 million over the weekend, maybe a little more, while its two-week total will be closing in on $40 million. This is awesome for a film that cost just $7 million to make and Roadside Attractions should be ecstatic over this result.
On the other hand, Paramount Pictures has yet another bomb on their hands, as Sherlock Gnomes only managed $2.8 million on Friday. Granted, it is a family film, so it will have a better internal multiplier, but a $10 million opening weekend is still a disaster for a film that reportedly cost $59 million to make. Additionally, its reviews are the worst of the five wide releases this weekend and it only managed a B+ from CinemaScore, which is terrible for a family film.
The rest of the new releases all bombed to one degree or another. Paul, Apostle of Christ only managed eighth place with $1.66 million. Its reviews are just 32% positive and it was too small to get a CinemaScore. That said, it should get a boost on Sunday to earn about $5 million over the weekend. Easter should also help its box office as well. Additionally, it only cost $5 million to make, so if it can become a hit with its target audience on the home market, something they watch every Easter, then it could break even, eventually.
Midnight Sun was next with $1.48 million. Its reviews were just 21% positive, but it managed an A- from CinemaScore, so clearly the audience liked it more than the critics did. That said, earning any more than $4 million this weekend will be a stretch, meaning it will open below the Mendoza Line.
Unsane did even worse with just $1.36 million on Friday, putting it on pace for a little more than $3 million over the weekend. This is a real shame, it it earned the best reviews. Granted, it only managed a B- from CinemaScore, but horror films almost always struggle in this regard.
One final note, Isle of Dogs opened with $556,000 in 27 theaters for an average of $20,577. That’s not for the weekend, that’s just for Friday. Compared to Fantastic Mr. Fox, this is arguably a much stronger opening. Its average will be about $10,000 lower, but it is also playing in 27 theaters compared to just four. I expect the reviews will result in strong legs and it could expand truly wide as a result.
- Pacific Rim: Uprising Comparisons
- Sherlock Gnomes Comparisons
- Paul, Apostle of Christ Comparisons
- Midnight Sun Comparisons
- Unsane Comparisons
Filed under: Friday Estimates, Black Panther, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Midnight Sun, Sherlock Gnomes, Isle of Dogs, I Can Only Imagine, Paul, Apostle of Christ, Unsane, Marvel Cinematic Universe