Weekend Predictions: The Quiet Before the Storm
April 19, 2018
There are two wide releases this week, I Feel Pretty and Super Troopers 2, as well as a semi-wide release that has a shot at the top ten, Traffik. However, most analysts think A Quiet Place will return to first place on the box office chart. Meanwhile, Infinity War opens next week and that’s all most moviegoers are talking about and this will likely really hurt this week’s box office. This weekend last year, The Fate of the Furious remained on top with $38 million, while the top three films combined earned $60 million. I don’t think 2018 will be able to match that, but it should be close.
Before we get to this week’s releases, there are some who are worried about Infinity War, because it still has no reviews. In fact, it won’t even have its premiere until Monday the 23rd. Usually, this is a really bad sign, as it looks like the studio is trying to hide the film from the public. However, in this case, there is a more reasonable reason for this. There are major spoilers in Infinity War for the rest of the MCU, so much so that they still haven’t revealed the name of the Avengers Movie and won’t for at least a month after Infinity War is released. They released a statement from Thanos threatening anyone who reveals spoilers. Either this is a great marketing trick, or something major is going down. I have my suspicions based on some of the stories from the comic, but I’m not even going to speculate here.
A Quiet Place held on better than expected last weekend and should climb back into first place this weekend. I think it will add just under $20 million this weekend, for a three-week total of close to $130 million. This is already more than enough to earn a sizable profit, not even taking into account its international numbers.
Rampage earned an internal multiplier of over 3.0 last weekend, which is amazing. Furthermore, it earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which also suggests better than average legs. That said, it is a big action film and those tend to not have great legs. I think it will fall over 50%, but it will be close with just over $17 million and this should be enough to earn second place. It might be enough to earn $100 million domestically, but Infinity War will likely have something to say about that.
I Feel Pretty is the biggest new release of the week, but it isn’t expected to be a major box office player. The reviews are not good, while Amy Schumer’s previous film missed expectations. It has a shot at first place with just over $20 million, but it could also be a distant third place with about $13 million. If you split the difference, you get a third place debut with just under $17 million. This is still a reasonably good start for a film that cost $32 million to make.
Ready Player One should be in a close race for fourth place with just over $7 million. The film is doing really well worldwide, but it cost about $300 million to make and advertise, so it will still need help to break even.
Truth or Dare is a horror film that earned terrible reviews and it will likely collapse at the box office this weekend. A drop-off of over 60% is almost guaranteed, which would leave the film in fourth place with between $7 million and $8 million. However, I think fifth place with just under $7 million is more likely.
Super Troopers 2 hits theaters just over 16 years after the original did. That’s too long and delayed sequels like this rarely work out. In fact, comedy sequels rarely work out. Add in the less than stellar reviews and its box office chances are really weak. It could grab third place with about $8 million, but sixth place with barely more than $6 million is more likely. This is about what the first film opened with, but without taking inflation into account. That’s not a good start.
The final new release of the week is Traffik, which is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. As a result, there’s not much to talk about. It has close to a 50% chance of opening below the Mendoza Line, but even on the high end, it will struggle to reach the top ten. I’m predicting just under $3 million during its opening weekend.
- I Feel Pretty Comparisons
- Super Troopers 2 Comparisons
- Traffik Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Rampage, Ready Player One, Super Troopers 2, A Quiet Place, I Feel Pretty, Traffik, Truth or Dare, Marvel Cinematic Universe, Josh Brolin, Amy Schumer