Weekend Predictions: Putting a Hit out on the Box Office
June 28, 2018
After two monster hits in a row, the weekend crashes back down to Earth. Neither Sicario: Day of the Soldado nor Uncle Drew are expected to do much at the box office, but they are expected to open with similar amounts and there’s no consensus which film will do better, so at least there’s something to talk about. This weekend last year, Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.43 million. We will be relying almost entirely on holdovers to win in the year-over-year comparison. I think we’ve got an excellent shot of doing that by a significant margin.
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with $148 million last weekend, but like nearly all blockbuster films, it is expected to plummet this weekend. Mixed reviews won’t help, but an A minus from CinemaScore suggests it will avoid a 60% decline, but it will be close with $60 million over its sophomore stint. It will very likely top $200 million domestically by the end of business on Thursday, so this will put the film well passed $250 million after just ten days of release. On the other hand, every single week in July, there’s one film that is direct competition. By the time Mission: Impossible—Fallout debuts, there’s not going to be much room for this film.
Incredibles 2 fell to $80.35 million during its second weekend of release. A 56% drop-off is a lot for a family film, but it was also dealing with incredible competition. This week it should bounce back and dropping less than 50% is expected. In fact, it could drop less than 40%. I’m not that optimistic, but a weekend haul of $45 million will still be worth celebrating.
Sicario: Day of the Soldado is the sequel to Sicario and usually sequels are easier to predict, because we have more information. However, Sicario opened in limited release, which complicates things. Its reviews are significantly weaker, so it likely won’t live up to its predecessor, but it should at least open faster than its predecessor’s first wide weekend. I’m going with third place and just over $15 million.
Uncle Drew should be next. Its buzz is much quieter, while its reviews are below the overall positive level. Perhaps basketball fans will want to see the former stars act, but even that likely won’t be enough. After all, the biggest basketball hit at the box office is Space Jam and that came out more than 20 years ago. (Trainwreck does have a higher box office number and does feature basketball as part of its plot, but it isn’t a sports movie.) I don’t think it is going to bomb. In fact, I think it will be in a very tight race for third place with just under $15 million. This could be more than it cost to make.
Ocean’s 8 will spend one last weekend in the top five with about $7 million. The film has already crossed $100 million domestically and if it can get close to $130 million before it is done, then it will pay for its entire production budget just on its domestic theatrical numbers.
Tag should round out the top six with $5 million. It is on pace to get to $50 million domestically, which is enough to be a financial success.
- Sicario: Day of the Soldado Comparisons
- Uncle Drew Comparisons
Filed under: Weekend Preview, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ocean’s 8, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Tag, Uncle Drew