Weekend predictions: Grandpa unlikely to challenge Tenet
October 8, 2020
The War with Grandpa opens in 2,250 theaters this weekend, making it the first truly-wide new release since Infidel back on September 25. Family movies have generally looked weak during the pandemic, but Hocus Pocus did surprisingly well last weekend, earning $1.925 million. Given Grandpa’s wider release and relative freshness, it might have a shot at toppling Tenet from the top of the chart, although our model thinks that’s unlikely. In fact, the re-release of Coco might have a better chance.
We’re still working with very little information when it comes to predicting opening weekends, and what we do have is getting quite stale: Infidel’s release three weeks ago seems like a lifetime ago. That film over-performed compared to our model’s prediction, but not by enough to change our “pandemic adjustment,” a measure of how likely people are to go to theaters right now, which stands at -72% (or, to put it another way, 28% of moviegoers are currently comfortable going to theaters). The uncertainty of this number is especially high for family movies, because Grandpa is the first one released during the pandemic. The only clue we have is the relatively good performance of Hocus Pocus last weekend. Films like Grandpa are also relatively rare in general, with only seven good comps in the past 10 years, six of which were released by major studios. (To make the list a little fresher, I took the most recent release from franchise films such as Diary of a Wimpy Kid, although there’s an argument for using the first film in a franchise.)
We’d usually expect a newer distributor like 101 Studios to do a little worse than the majors, all else being equal (although the non-studio distributors usually make up the difference by having lower marketing costs). Given the overall uncertainty in the market, including an adjustment for that seems like overkill, although if Grandpa under-performs it might be simply down to the challenge of launching a new distribution operation during a pandemic.
One final factor not currently reflected in the model is competition with other movies. That hasn’t been much of any issue recently, but Grandpa is going up against Hocus Pocus and Coco, both of which appeal to a similar audience and are more of a known quantity. How much that will dampen its box office is hard to gauge.
Given those caveats, here’s what the model has to say about the prospects for The War with Grandpa.
Given all the uncertainty, a $1.5 million opening for Grandpa would feel like a major success, and anything over $1 million would be quite good news. If it performed as strongly as Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, it would actually top the chart, but that is on the very high end of expectations.
In fact, if any film does better than Tenet this weekend, it is more likely to be Coco, which is debuting in 1,899 theaters. I’ve included a “prediction” for that in this week’s predicted top six, but it’s a prediction based solely on how Hocus Pocus did last weekend, which barely counts as a prediction at all. Honestly, it could do half or twice the number shown here and I wouldn’t be surprised. If it does better than Hocus Pocus, it could top the chart.
All-in-all, the most likely outcome is another weekend win for Tenet, but it is beginning to fade, and a “surprise” wouldn’t be that surprising.
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Filed under: Weekend Preview, Hocus Pocus, Coco, The War with Grandpa, Tenet, Infidel, Diary of a Wimpy Kid