Weekend Predictions: Kaiju vs. Panther

March 22, 2018

Pacific Rim: Uprising

Black Panther will finally give up its hold on first place, that is unless something goes horribly wrong for Pacific Rim: Uprising. There are four other wide or semi-wide releases hitting theaters this weekend, which is at least two too many. Sherlock Gnomes and Paul, Apostle of Christ are the only two that have a legitimate shot at the top five. Meanwhile, Midnight Sun and Unsane are just hoping to not miss the top ten. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases that earned a combined $60 million. This is more than the five wide releases this year will earn. Also, Beauty and the Beast remained in second place with $90 million. 2018 has already lost its lead over 2017 and this weekend it is going to get crushed in the year-over-year comparison.

Pacific Rim: Uprising is the sequel to Pacific Rim, a film that I’m not sure broke even. However, it made more than $100 million in China, which is why it got a sequel. The film’s reviews are significantly lower than its predecessors were, as are its box office chances. On the low end, Uprising will fail to open with $20 million, while on the high end, it could top $30 million. Splitting the difference gets us $25 million and that seems as good a prediction as any.

Black Panther is finally giving up its stranglehold on first place this weekend. That’s not to say it is going to collapse and go away entirely; although it does have a very loud ticking clock named Infinity War looming ahead of it. I’m sure Disney doesn’t want Black Panther competing with Infinity War for theater space. In fact, I’m sure the original plan was to have this movie out on Blu-ray before Infinity War hit theaters, but I’m sure they are happy Black Panther’s box office success ruined that plan. Look for another $15 million this weekend, putting it on pace for $650 million domestically, perhaps even $675 million.

Sherlock Gnomes opens in theaters just over seven years after its predecessor. That’s just too long, especially for a kids movie. There are still no reviews and no crossover appeal according to the buzz. On the other hand, there are also no animated kids movies to really compete with the film, as Peter Rabbit will likely be knocked out of the top ten this weekend. Sherlock Gnomes could fall more than 50% when compared to the original’s opening weekend, but I’m not that pessimistic. I think it will come close with just over $13 million.

Tomb Raider should be next with about $12 million over the weekend for a total of $43 million after ten days of release. The film does have a lot of competition this week, including some direct competition, but thankfully it is doing well enough internationally that its domestic numbers aren’t critical.

I Can Only Imagine should battle Paul, Apostle of Christ for fifth place. The new release will have an uphill climb, as its reviews are quite a bit weaker than I Can Only Imagine managed. On the other hand, niche market films like this can fall apart quickly, as the target audiences rush out to see it opening weekend. I do think I Can Only Imagine will come out ahead, but it will be close at just over $8 million to just under $8 million.

Midnight Sun and Unsane will be in a tight race with each film earning about $4 million. Midnight Sun still has no reviews, while Unsane has 80% positive reviews. Even so, I’m giving the edge to Midnight Sun, because Open Road has a better track record than Bleecker Street does.

- Pacific Rim: Uprising Comparisons
- Sherlock Gnomes Comparisons
- Paul, Apostle of Christ Comparisons
- Midnight Sun Comparisons
- Unsane Comparisons

Filed under: Weekend Preview, Black Panther, Pacific Rim: Uprising, Midnight Sun, Sherlock Gnomes, Tomb Raider, Peter Rabbit, I Can Only Imagine, Paul, Apostle of Christ, Unsane