The Numbers News - March 2016
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International Box Office: BvS Tops International Chart with $254 million, but There are Signs of Weakness
March 31, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice destroyed the competition earning one of the best international opening weekends of all time at $254 million in 66 markets. Worldwide, the film made $420.01 million during its opening weekend, which was the fourth biggest opening weekend of all time. That's the good news. The bad news is the film's legs. Like its domestic run, the film started out amazingly, but saw its fortunes fall as the weekend went on. China is a good example of this. The film started out as well as expected, but by the end it pulled in $56.27 million during its four-day opening weekend. I read that the studio was expecting close to $80 million there. The film also dominated the chart in the U.K. with $21.85 million in 612 theaters. At first look, that's a large number; however, its barely more than Deadpool opened with earlier this year. The film also cracked $10 million in Mexico ($12.43 million) and in Brazil ($10.61 million), while it came close in Australia ($9.54 million).
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Contest: Prediction v Prediction: Winning Announcement
March 30, 2016
The winners of our Prediction v Prediction contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: BvS Breaks Special's Yearly Average Opening at $39,134
March 30, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned first place on the theater average chart for the weekend and for 2016 with $39,134. The previous record was $38,002 held by Midnight Special and was set last weekend. This week, Midnight Special had to settle for second place on the chart with an average of $20,003. Born to be Blue was the best new limited release earning an average of $15,395 in three theaters. The only other film in the $10,000 club was April and the Extraordinary World, which earned $11,413 in its lone theater.
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Home Market Releases for March 29th, 2016
March 29, 2016
There are a huge number of new releases on Amazon this week. Unfortunately, they go from Oscar contenders to stuff that would be filler on a slow week really, really quickly, so I will be skipping over most of them. Almost half of the releases on this week's list are contenders for Pick of the Week, so it is really hard to narrow that list. In the end, I couldn't chose between any of the movies / TV shows, so I went BabyMetal Metal Resistance, which comes out on CD on Friday.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Batman v Superman: Boom v Bust at $166.01 million
March 28, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the box office earning $166.01 million over the weekend. However, this is lower than anticipated and lower than Saturday's calculation or Sunday's estimates. (Our model turned out to be closer.) Most of the rest of the films in the top five had reason to be happy, as did the overall box office, which was an amazing $252 million. This is 92% higher than last weekend and 68% more than this weekend last year. This kind of year-over-year growth usually only happens when there's a misalignment in holidays, which is exactly what happened this weekend. Last year, Easter didn't happen until April 5th. Year-to-date, 2016 doubled its lead over 2015 at $2.63 billion to $2.27 billion. A $370 million, 16% lead is certainly impressive, but I suspect it will shrink dramatically next month. Hopefully it isn't completely gone by May.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Hunger Games: Complete Collection
March 28, 2016
The Hunger Games franchise has come to a close. The four films earned a combined $1.45 billion domestically and $2.90 billion worldwide. The final two chapters of the film franchise didn't live up to the first two in terms of quality and box office numbers. Did it collapse so much in quality that the franchise isn't worth owning? If not, is it worth picking up, even with the double-dips?
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Weekend Estimates: Batman v Superman hits March record $170 milion
March 27, 2016
Batman and Superman not only had to fight each other this weekend, but also mediocre reviews. They have come through in some style, however, posting a record for March of $170.1 million, according to Warner Bros.’ Sunday morning estimate. Our model has the film coming a little below that mark, at $165 million or so, which might mean it won’t quite top Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II’s $169 million, which is currently the studio’s best ever weekend. But the fact that we’re comparing the movie to the Harry Potter franchise is nothing but good news for them.
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Friday Estimates: Superman Smashes Records, but Critical Reaction may be its Kryptonite
March 26, 2016
As expected, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice dominated the Friday box office with $82.01 million. This is likely more than the rest of the films will earn during the entire weekend. It is also the record for the biggest single day in March, biggest pre-summer single day, and biggest Easter Friday box office. That’s where the good news ends. The film’s reviews remain just 30% positive, making it one of the worst recent tentpole releases. Worse still, its CinemaScore was just a B. That doesn't sound bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the CinemaScore is from people excited enough to see a movie on opening day. Anything less than a B+ usually results in weak legs. In comparison, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen managed a B+ and had weak legs during the prime Summer season. Batman v Superman is on pace for a $172 million opening weekend, which won’t give it a good internal multiplier and there’s a chance it won’t earn $172 million during the rest of its domestic theatrical run. It will need a lively international run and a worldwide total of close to $1 billion to break even.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Feeling Blue
March 25, 2016
It is a relatively good week for limited releases with a few films earning stunning reviews. This includes Born to be Blue, which I think has the best shot at mainstream success. April and the Extraordinary World and Mia madre also have a chance at doing well in limited release.
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Contest: Look Alive
March 25, 2016
At one time, there were three films scheduled to open wide next week. However, Collide has been pushed back to the fall and Amityville: The Awakening's release has been pushed back to January of next year. This leaves only one real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. ... oh no! God's Not Dead 2, a faith-based film. Faith-based films are notoriously difficult to predict, so entrants will have a difficult time getting this right. On the other hand, it means you could use a random number generator and have just as good of a shot of winning as someone who spends the next seven days researching the film. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for God's Not Dead 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a copy of Casual: Season One on DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Thursday Night Previews: Batman gets off to a Super Start
March 25, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice started its box office run with $27.7 million from Thursday previews. This is more than twice what Deadpool earned during its previews earlier this year and it beats the previous pre-summer record of $15.8 million by Furious 7 last year. Unfortunately, there are a couple of reasons to not be too excited. Firstly, the Fanboy effect is really strong for this film. “Committed” would be a word I would use to described the hardcore fans of the DC Extended Universe. They will rush out to see the movie regardless of the quality. Secondly, this is a terrible movie. Its Tomatometer Score is just 30% positive, which is bad no matter how you look at it. Word-of-mouth could do some real damage before the weekend is over.
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Weekend Predictions: Batman v Superman v Deadpool v Avengers
March 24, 2016
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice opens this weekend and should become the biggest film of the year. It has to become the biggest hit of the year. It is the first of ten upcoming films in the DC Extended Universe and it is rumored that Warner Bros. spent $400 million getting this movie to theaters. To be fair, $100 million of this could be described as pre-pre-production for the rest of the DCEU. The other wide release is My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2, which is a delayed sequel that I'm not sure many people are really excited to see. It likely didn't cost a lot, so it should break even sooner rather than later. This weekend last year, Home earned first place with $52.11 million. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice should earn more than that during its opening day.
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International Box Office: Zootopia Remains Tops with International Haul of $64.8 million
March 23, 2016
Zootopia remained in first place with $64.8 million in 49 markets for totals of $389.9 million internationally and $590.8 million worldwide. The film's biggest opening was in Australia, where it earned first place with $3.08 million on 479 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.48 million including previews. It also topped the charts during its opening weekend in Brazil with $2.57 million on 774 screens. The film's biggest market overall was China, where it remained in first place with $37.24 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $172.79 million. This blows past Kung Fu Panda 3's record for an animated film and it will soon become the first such film to reach the $200 million mark in that market.
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Contest: Play the Game: Winning Announcement
March 23, 2016
The winners of our Play the Game contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Allegiant opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Midnight has Special Year-Best Opening of $38,002
March 22, 2016
Midnight Special had the best theater average for a film that opened in 2016 earning $190,000 in five theaters for an average of $38,002. The only other film in the $10,000 club was A Space Program with $10,247 in its lone theater.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Zootopia Leads the Way with $37.16 million, while The Divergent Series Collapses
March 22, 2016
At the beginning of the month, it was widely accepted that The Divergent Series: Allegiant would open in first place. However, two things happened to prevent that. Firstly, Zootopia not only opened faster, but its legs were much longer. Secondly, Allegiant failed to match even lowered expectations. This left Zootopia with an easy first place win over the weekend. However, it wasn't the only pleasant surprise, as Miracles from Heaven opened faster than expected. The overall box office slipped 3.3% from last weekend to $131 million. It was also 0.3% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 is still ahead of 2015 by an 8.4% margin at $2.33 billion to $2.15 billion.
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Home Market Releases for March 22nd, 2016
March 21, 2016
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This week, there are not many releases to talk about and one of them, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, is dominating the list so much that I could ignore the rest of the list and very little of substance would be lost. I'm not going to do that, but I could. The Box Set is a contender for Pick of the Week, but I'm still waiting for the screener. City Lights is another contender for Pick of the Week, but in the end, I went with the Canadian movie, Mountain Men on DVD, which is Puck of the Week.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Perry Mason Movie Collection: Volume Five
March 20, 2016
The fifth and final volume of the Perry Mason Movie Collection comes out this week. The original TV show is still widely considered a classic of the genre and was so beloved that nearly two decades after the original show ended, CBS began airing a series of TV movies. Over the next decade, 30 such films were made. Did the high quality last till the end of the franchise? Or did it run out of steam?
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Weekend Estimates: Zootopia tops Allegiant
March 20, 2016
Zootopia is set to win a third straight race and pass $200 million at the domestic box office in the process, but the real story of this weekend is the weak debut by The Divergent Series: Allegiant.
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Friday Estimates: Allegiant’s $11.9 million Haul Gives it Top Spot, Barely
March 19, 2016
As expected, The Divergent Series: Allegiant opened in first place on Friday. However, it only managed $11.9 million, which is barely more than half of what Divergent and Insurgent made during their opening days. That’s bad, but it gets worse. You have to take into account the reviews, which are stuck at a mere 10% positive. Its CinemaScore is better, but even that's only a B, which is a full letter grade below what Divergent and Insurgent earned. $30 million over the weekend is probably out of the question, although it should come close. If the reports are correct and it cost $110 million to make, then there’s very little hope it will break even any time soon. If the final film in the franchise, Ascendant, suffers a similar decline, then the franchise might end up costing Lionsgate money.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases are Very Special
March 18, 2016
Of the seven films on this week's list, five of them are earning excellent reviews and one of the other two is a Bollywood film with no reviews. Midnight Special was supposed to open wide, but that's not happening now. It could still find an audience in theaters. Additionally, Krisha is being released by A24 and that distributor has a very good track record.
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Thursday Night Previews: Allegiant Falls Behind Predecessors
March 18, 2016
The Divergent Series: Allegiant was the only film to have Thursday previews, but it wasn't able to take advantage of the lack of competition. It started its box office run with $2.35 million over the weekend. This is well below the $4.9 million and the $4.1 million earned by Divergent and Insurgent respectively. This is such a large drop-off that I think our prediction might be a little too generous. We will know more tomorrow when the Friday estimates are in.
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Contest: Prediction v Prediction
March 18, 2016
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice opens next weekend and many think it will be the biggest box office hit of the year so far. It better be, otherwise Warner Bros. will be pissed that they spent $200 million on this movie only to lose to Deadpool. However, while it might not become the biggest hit of the year, it will certainly become the biggest hit of the weekend. It is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Hero Quest on DVD, and a previously reviewed movie.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a two previously reviewed movies, one of which will have a similar family-friendly target audience.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Is Zootopia Headed for a Threepeat?
March 18, 2016
There are three wide releases coming out this week. This includes The Divergent Series: Allegiant, which, at the beginning of the month, was widely expected to earn first place during its debut. However, Zootopia's success at the box office combined with Allegiant's failure with critics will likely result in Zootopia in earning first place, again. Miracles from Heaven is the latest faith-based film to hit theaters. It might struggle simply because there is too much recent competition for this still niche-market. Finally there's The Bronze, which is opening in just over 1,000 theaters. If it can avoid the Mendoza Line, or at least come close, then it will reach the top ten. That should be doable, maybe. This weekend last year, Insurgent earned first place with just over $52 million, while Cinderella earned second place with close to $35 million. I think Zootopia will come close to Cinderella, but Allegiant will fall far short of Insurgent and that will result in 2016 losing in the year-over-year comparison.
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International Box Office: Zootopia Goes Global with $83.1 million
March 17, 2016
Zootopia rose to first place with $83.1 million in 45 markets over the weekend for totals of $288.7 million internationally and $432.7 million worldwide. The film's biggest market was China, where it grew to $59.44 million over the weekend for a ten-day total of $112.83 million. It became only the second animated film to earn $100 million in China and should top Kung Fu Panda 3's record-breaking run of $151.74 million. The film opens in Brazil this weekend and the U.K. next weekend, so its run is far from over.
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Contest: 10 Outta 10: Winning Announcement
March 17, 2016
The winners of our 10 Outta 10 contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for 10 Cloverfield Lane opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Eye has Sky-High Opening with $22,761
March 16, 2016
Eye in the Sky opened on first place on the per theater chart with an average of $22,761 in five theaters. This opening, plus its reviews, suggest it could do well in wider release. Likewise, Hello, My Name is Doris earned an average of $21,246 in four theaters while its Tomatometer Score is 90% positive. It could also earn some measure of mainstream success. City of Gold did very well for a documentary with an average of $15,740, also in four theaters. The overall number one film, Zootopia, earned an average of $13,415. Remember was the latest A24 to do well with an average of $10,245 in two theaters.
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Home Market Releases for March 15th, 2016
March 15, 2016
There are several top-notch releases coming out this week, including a trio of Awards Season contenders: The Big Short, Brooklyn, and Carol. All three are Pick of the Week contenders. However, the winner of that title is Game of Thrones: Season Five on Blu-ray.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Zootopia Doubles The Competition with $51.34 Million
March 15, 2016
The weekend box office was mostly positive with both Zootopia and 10 Cloverfield Lane finishing on the very high end of expectations over the weekend. On the other hand, the less said about the other new wide releases the better. Overall, the box office fell from last weekend, down 17% to $135 million, but that's not a bad decline after Zootopia's monster opening. Compared to last year, the box office was up 2.5%, which isn't a great improvement, but any win now increases the chances 2016 will remain competitive with 2015 when we reach the point that Furious 7, The Avengers: Age of Ultron, and Jurassic World opened last year. Speaking of the year-over-year comparison, 2016's lead over 2015 slipped to 8.7% at $2.15 billion to $1.98 billion. That is still an impressive lead and one that will hopefully grow by the end of the month.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Game of Thrones: Season 5
March 13, 2016
Season Six of Game of Thrones starts on the 24th of April. Still a full month away. On the other hand, Season Five comes out this week and to celebrate we have a Contest and a review. How was Season Five compared to the previous seasons? Is it still engaging? Or now that the show is running out of source material to pull from, is it starting to show cracks?
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Weekend Estimates: Zootopia Romps to $50 Million Second Weekend
March 13, 2016
Zootopia is headed to another big win at the box office this weekend, with a modest 33% decline from last weekend keeping it well ahead of a pack of new releases. Its $50 million gross this time around takes it to $142.6 million in total domestically. With $288.7 million in the bank internationally, including over $100 million in China by the end of the weekend, Disney looks to have struck gold again. A sequel, theme park tie-ins and merchandizing seem likely, although Disney has so much of that going on already, what with Star Wars, Marvel, its Princess lines, and Pixar, that this might actually be more of a niche for them. (A half-billion-dollar-and-counting niche. Nice work if you can get it.)
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Friday Estimates: Utopia for Zootopia, Clover Sees Green, Rest Bomb
March 12, 2016
As expected, Zootopia led the way at the box office on Friday. However, its Friday number was better tan anticipated at $12.02 million. It should have a real jump at the box office on Saturday, due to its family-friendly nature, giving the film a real shot at $50 million during its sophomore stint. Even if it just fails to get there, which is likely, that would be down only 30% or so from its opening frame, and would put the film’s running tally at over $140 million and would put it on pace for well over $250 million in the end. That’s very impressive, especially for this time of year.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Say Hello to Limited Release
March 11, 2016
There are quite a few limited releases on this week's list that are earning excellent reviews and / or substantial buzz. This includes Hello, My Name is Doris, which I really hope does well. Boom Bust Boom, City of Gold, Eye in the Sky, and Marguerite are all worth checking out in theaters. Most of the rest are worth a rental on VOD.
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Thursday Night Previews: Cloverfield gets Lucky During Its Previews
March 11, 2016
10 Cloverfield Lane had the best results during its Thursday previews with $1.8 million in 2,500 theaters. This is the same as Insidious: Chapter 3 managed last year during its previews. That film opened with $22.69 million over the full weekend, which is a good target for 10 Cloverfield Lane to aim for. With amazing reviews, $25 million is within reach. We will know more tomorrow when we get Friday's estimates.
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Contest: Play the Game
March 11, 2016
Of the three wide releases coming out next week, only The Divergent Series: Allegiant has a real shot at box office success. Although, very few people think it will match Insurgent at the box office, especially if its early reviews are any indication. Regardless of its critical scorn, the film should have no trouble earning first place and so it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Divergent Series: Allegiant
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Five on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Clover Will Need Lots of Luck to Win Box Office Race
March 10, 2016
There are four widish releases coming out this week, but only two of them are opening truly wide, while only one of them has any real box office power. That film is 10 Cloverfield Lane, which is the pseudo-sequel to Cloverfield. Very few people think it will match its predecessor, but it should open in a solid second place. That leaves Zootopia in the perfect spot to repeat on the top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, Cinderella led the way with $67.88 million. This is more than any one single film will make this year. However, the second biggest hit of last year was Run All Night at barely more than $11 million and no other film earned substantially more than $6 million. Perhaps the depth from 2016 will help it win in the year-over-year comparison. I'm not overly bullish that will happen, but we can't rule it out either.
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International Box Office: Ip Man 3 has First Place Debut with $75.0 million, maybe.
March 10, 2016
It's a really bad week for international numbers, but not because the box office numbers are low. Ip Man 3 reportedly opened in first place with $75.0 million in three markets over the weekend for a total of $76.5 million. This includes $71.28 million in its native China. I say "reportedly" because this week this story broke. If this is true, then we will have to doubt any box office number coming out of China. This is a mess. Chinese films regularly reach the top five on the international chart, so if we can't trust the official reports, it makes these figures nearly useless.
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Contest: Hop to It: Winning Announcement
March 9, 2016
The winners of our Hop to It contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Zootopia opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Zootopia Knight a Theater Average Champion with $19,614
March 9, 2016
Zootopia not only earned first place on the overall box office, it also topped the theater average chart with an average of $19,614. The only other film to earn more than $10,000 per theater was Knight of Cups, which earned an average of $15,138 in four theaters.
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Home Market Releases for March 8th, 2016
March 8, 2016
It's March 8th, which is International Women's Day. This is the one day a year where men flood Twitter asking, "Why isn't there an International Men's Day." ... There is. It's November 19th. ... Anyway, it isn't a great week for new releases. The biggest release is The Peanuts Movie and its 3D Combo Pack is a Pick of the Week contender. However, it just misses out on that title to Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt: Season 1.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Zootopia Wins Weekend With Record-breaking Result of $75.06 million
March 8, 2016
As expected Zootopia dominated the weekend box office earning $75.06 million. This is half of what The Hunger Games opened with, but it was still the fifth Biggest March Opening. It also broke a couple of smaller records, but more on that down below. Second place went to London Has Fallen, but it was way, way back with just $21.64 million. This is terrible for a film that cost more than $100 million to make. Overall, the box office was $159 million. This is 41% more than last weekend and 77% more than the same weekend last year. 2016's lead over 2015 rose to just a hair under 10% at $1.97 billion to $1.79 billion. Granted, by this time in 2015, none of the year's $1 billion hits had been released, so things can change rapidly, but this is still a great start so far.
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Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Spectre
March 7, 2016
Spectre is the latest Bond film. It is a follow-up to Skyfall, which not only earned stellar reviews, but was also the biggest box office hit in the franchise earning more than $1 billion worldwide. Spectre wasn't as strong at the box office or with critics, but I'm a long time fan of the franchise, so I will still like it, right?
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Weekend Estimates: Zootopia Starts March with $73.7 Million
March 6, 2016
Buoyed by excellent reviews and limited competition, Zootopia will launch this weekend to a huge $73.7 million, the fourth-best weekend in March and best-ever weekend for Walt Disney Animation Studios, ahead of Frozen’s second weekend back in 2013. With a 93% favorability score among audiences, and an A CinemaScore, the film should enjoy long legs going into the Easter season. Aside from The Little Prince (which is expected to open in limited release), Zootopia doesn’t have much competition from other family films until The Jungle Book opens on April 15. It’s already shaping up to be another good year at the box office for Disney.
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Friday Estimates: Nature vs. Nurture
March 5, 2016
Zootopia started its run with $19.47 million on Friday. This tops The Lorax's opening by almost exactly $2 million. The film’s reviews remain Oscar-worthy, and its CinemaScore is an A (A+ among its target demographic). This should result in a great internal multiplier, meaning a $75 million weekend is within reach, and becoming the Biggest March Opening for an animated film seems like a lock.
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Limited and VOD Releases: King of Limited Release
March 4, 2016
There's no limited release on this week's list that looks like a sure hit. Knight of Cups has the pedigree, but not the reviews. On the other hand, Emelie has excellent reviews, but it is playing on Video on Demand. Songs My Brothers Taught Me is a low key release, but maybe it will find a receptive audience in theaters.
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Thursday Night Previews: Zootopia Hopps to the Top - Update
March 4, 2016
Judy Hopps and the rest of the cast of Zootopia got off to a great start earning $1.7 million during its Thursday previews. This doesn't sound like a lot compared to Deadpool, which earned more than $12 million just a few weeks ago. However, family films rarely do this well during previews. In fact, Kung Fu Panda 3 didn't even bother with previews. A good comparison is Home, which opened this month last year. That film earned $650,000 during its previews and its reviews were only mixed. As expected, Zootopia is no longer earning 100% positive reviews, but its Tomatometer Score is still a stunning 99% positive. This should help its word-of-mouth and a record-breaking run is still well within reach.
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Contest: 10 Outta 10
March 4, 2016
There are four wide releases coming out next week, maybe. I'm still not convinced all of them will open in 2,000 theaters or more. That said, 10 Cloverfield Lane should easily be the best of the four films and might earn more than the other three earn combined. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for 10 Cloverfield Lane.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Debbie Macomber's Cedar Cove: The Final Season on DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Zootopia Hopes to Have a Wild Debut
March 4, 2016
March begins with three wide releases and there is a potential record-breaker in that list, sort of. Zootopia isn't going to challenge The Hunger Games for Biggest March Opening, but it has a good shot at topping The Lorax for biggest opening for an animated film in March. London Has Fallen needs to make close to $30 million this weekend, if it is to have any real shot at breaking even any time soon. This isn't going to happen. Meanwhile, Whiskey Tango Foxtrot is just hoping to come close to $10 million over the weekend. This weekend last year, the box office was led by Chappie with just $13.35 million. Zootopia will earn way more than that on opening night. It should be a great weekend for 2016 in the year-over-year comparison.
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International Box Office: Deadpool Has Double-Milestone Weekend with $40.2 million
March 3, 2016
Deadpool reached two milestones this weekend topping $300 million internationally and $600 million worldwide. Over the weekend, the film added $40.2 million in 74 markets to its running tally, which now sits at $324.1 million internationally and $609.4 million worldwide. At this pace, the film will have no trouble getting to $400 million internationally and $700 million worldwide. It is massively profitable, but I am worried the studio will double, or triple, the production budget of the sequel and then insist on more control over the process, because the stakes are higher.
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Contest: Got to have Faith: Winning Announcement
March 3, 2016
The winners of our Got to have Faith contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Gods of Egypt opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Ran Runs Away from the Competition with $11,462
March 2, 2016
Rialto re-released Ran over the weekend, which is not something I recommend you say five times fast. The film pulled in $11,462 in its one theater, making it the only film to earn an average of more than $10,000.
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Home Market Releases for March 1st, 2016
March 2, 2016
There are some really good releases on this week's Home Market Release Report, including many that either won or were competing for Oscars, like Creed, Room, etc. However, once you get past the cream of the crop, there isn't much in the way of depth. Most of the Oscar contenders are Pick of the Week Contenders, but the best release by far is The Adventures of Bob & Doug McKenzie: Strange Brew on Blu-ray. This is the greatest movie ever made.
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2016 Preview: March
March 1, 2016
It's March 1st, which is not only the beginning of the month, but also Super Tuesday. If you are not American and don't pay attention to American politics, Super Tuesday is sort of like the Oscar night of the primary season. I was going to write about my predictions, but it looks like the race is about to be over. On the Republicans side, if Trump gets more than 50% of the delegates, then he has won. It will be too late to stop him. If he gets less than 40%, then it becomes a real race again. If the polling is correct, then he will get closer to 50% than 40%. On the Democratic side, Sanders needs at least 45% of the delegates, or it is over for him. Anything less than that and Hillary Clinton will have too big a lead to overcome. If the South Carolina result is an indicator, Hillary Clinton could get two-thirds of the delegates awarded tonight.
As for the box office, February was amazing, thanks to Deadpool's record-breaking opening and better than expected legs. The month ended with 2016 being nearly 4% higher than 2015's pace. Additionally, there are some big releases coming out this month with both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice looking to get more than $200 million, while Allegiant should hit $100 million. Last March, there were also three films that earned more than $100 million, but only one $200 million hit, Cinderella. It should be a really close race between 2016 and 2015.
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