The Numbers News - February 2016

← January 2016

March 2016 →

Weekend Wrap-Up: Deadpool Remains Immortal pulling in $31.12 million

February 29, 2016

As anticipated, Deadpool easily won the weekend with $31.12 million. This was more than double its nearest competitor, Gods of Egypt, which earned $14.12 million. Unfortunately, those were the only two films that earned more than $10 million over the weekend. The overall box office was $112 million, which was 21% lower than last weekend. This was still 5.1% more than the same weekend last year, while 2016's year-to-date advantage crept up ever so slightly to 3.9% at $1.78 billion to $1.71 billion. Hopefully March can continue this pace. More...

Featured TV on DVD Review: Drunk History: Season 3

February 29, 2016

I featured Drunk History on a Holiday Gift Guide and I stand by that recommendation. It's got a really simple set-up and a better than expected execution. On the other hand, I was worried that it's high concept meant a really short shelf life. Would I grow tired of the show after just three seasons? Or is it still entertaining? More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Winners... And the Oscar Goes to Spotlight for Best Picture

February 28, 2016

It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.

More...

Oscar Predictions: Mad Max Heads Technical Categories, Revenant Favorite for Best Picture

February 28, 2016

Voting in our annual Predict the Academy Awards contest is now closed, and we can reveal the final vote totals in each category, along with the rough probability for which film will win each award. This is a year where readers are very confident about the outcomes in many of the categories. In fact, there isn’t a single major category where less than 50% of readers picked the same winner, and there are five Oscars where 90% or more of readers agreed on the outcome, including a massive 97% of the vote for Inside Out for Best Animated Feature. That makes The Revenant a rather more uncertain bet, with 70% of readers favoring it for Best Picture. That’s actually theoretically the closest call among all the major prizes… More...

Weekend Estimates: Deadpool Enjoys Third Weekend Win

February 28, 2016

This is shaping up to be a triumphant weekend for 20th Century Fox. The studio will take three out of the top five spots at the box office this weekend, with Deadpool claiming a third straight win with $31.5 million, taking it to a huge (for the time of year) $285.6 million by close of business on Sunday. The studio’s Kung Fu Panda 3 will be down just 28% to $9 million in third place, for $128.5 million to date, and their new release Eddie the Eagle will land in fifth with a slightly disappointing, but not horrible, $6.3 million. Oh, and The Revenant is still in the top ten in its tenth weekend in release, and is the hot favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars this evening (more on that in a moment).

All of which is a roundabout way of saying that Gods of Egypt had a horrible opening weekend… More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Preview

February 28, 2016

If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD. More...

2015 Awards Season: Independent Spirit Awards Winners

February 27, 2016

Awards Season begins with the Independent Spirit Awards nominations, but they don't hand the awards out until the day before the Oscars. Spotlight was the big winner tonight, but it wasn’t the only one.

More...

Friday Estimates: Deadpool Delivers a Mortal Blow to Gods of Egypt

February 27, 2016

Deadpool will again earn first place at the box office, and with more than anticipated. It earned $8.95 million on Friday, which is 45% lower than last Friday's box office. If it maintains this run, then it will earn $31 million over the weekend for a total of $285 million. By this time next weekend, it will be over $300 million domestically. I don't think the studio was expecting $300 million worldwide when it gave the film the greenlight. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 27, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest closing at noon tomorrow, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This morning, we get to the final category, Best Picture. The film I think should win, Inside Out, wasn't even nominated. Of the movies on this list, I think The Martian is the best. If you look at the odds makers, it isn’t even in the top three. I’m going to be doubly disappointed tomorrow. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Director

February 27, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest reaching its conclusion tomorrow at noon, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Best Director is one of the last categories we will look at, and it is one of the least competitive. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Gods off to a Mortal Start

February 26, 2016

Gods of Egypt had the best showing among new releases from its Thursday previews; however, best is being used as a relative term, as it only managed $800,000. By comparison, 13 Hours pulled in $900,000 earlier this year. If the film’s reviews hurt its word of mouth, and I can’t imagine they won’t, then we are looking at a domestic total of about $40 million on a $140 million production budget. In fact, it will likely make less during its opening weekend than the $15.3 million reportedly spend on TV ads leading up to its release. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Yesterday is the Perfect Day to Watch a Limited Release

February 26, 2016

It's Oscar weekend, so obviously there's not many new limited releases worth paying attention to. Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon: Sword of Destiny is the biggest, but Only Yesterday is the best. More...

Contest: Hop To It

February 26, 2016

A new month begins and there new prizes to celebrate. Zootopia should have no trouble earning first place at the box office and because of that, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Zootopia.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Yu-Gi-oh! GX: Season 3 on DVD. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a copy of Digimon Fusion: Season 2 on DVD. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either some kids shows. I'll try to aim for a similar value and target demographic. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Gods of Egypt Eye Top Spot

February 26, 2016

There are three wide releases looking to overtake Deadpool at the box office. I seriously doubt any of them will be able to do so. In fact, all three combined might not top Deadpool over the weekend. Gods of Egypt is by far the biggest costing $140 million, but it likely won't earn 10% of that over the weekend. Triple 9 is a rather generic action film that bombed in its debut in the U.K., which doesn't bode well for its run here. Finally, Eddie the Eagle is a feel-good inspirational sports movie based on a real life story. Unfortunately, the sport in question is ski-jumping, which isn't popular enough to expect the movie will find an audience in theaters. This weekend last year, Focus was the top film, but Deadpool will likely beat it by $10 million over the weekend. It should be a relatively good week for 2016. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actress

February 26, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Lead Actress is not generating a lot of buzz, but one actress has been constantly winning and is the overwhelming favorite. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actor

February 26, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. If Leonardo DiCaprio doesn't win, there will be rioting in the streets. More...

International Box Office: Deadpool Still Lively with $85.0 million Weekend Haul

February 25, 2016

Deadpool remained in first place with $85.0 million in 74 markets over the weekend for totals of $256.3 million internationally and $493.2 million worldwide. The film had a trio of openings in major markets. This includes South Korea where it earned $7.36 million on 1,035 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.58 million. This is the biggest opening for a 18+ film, which is the South Korean equivalent of an R-rating. The film also opened in first place in Spain with $3.86 million on 319 screens, but had to settle for second place in Italy with $3.24 million on 368. Even if the film doesn't earn another dollar, its return on investment would be well over 100%. More...

Contest: Race to the Top: Winning Announcement

February 25, 2016

The winners of our Race to the Top contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Race opening weekend were... More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 24, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Like the Best Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 24, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This year, Best Supporting Actress is a two-horse race, making it one of the more competitive categories of the ones we are going to look at. More...

Theater Averages: Mermaid Nearly Cracks $1,000,000

February 24, 2016

The Mermaid led the way as far as limited releases were concerned with $985,000 in 35 theaters for an average of $28,144. The film has broken records in China, which we will talk about more tomorrow with the international top five. The Embrace of the Serpent was next with an average of $16,985 in three theaters over the weekend, while it earned an average of $20,721 during its five-day opening. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Deadpool with an average of $15,172. On a related note, Warner Bros. has announced an R-rated Blu-ray for Batman v. Superman. The is the wrong lesson to learn from the success of Deadpool. More...

Home Market Releases for February 23rd, 2016

February 23, 2016

It's not a great week on the home market. The Good Dinosaur is the biggest release this week, but it is the only wide release of note. Spotlight started out in limited release, but while it expanded significantly, it never expanded truly wide. As for the Pick of the Week, I'm going with the Bogart / Bacall Blu-ray Double-Shot: The Big Sleep and Key Largo.

On a side note, it is another short list this week, because Amazon continues to be run by morons. I tried to get help from chat, but that wasn't very successful. I "talked" to four people without getting an answer. Two of which logged in and then logged out without saying a thing. One logged in, introduced themselves, then logged out when I asked a question. I tried through e-mail, but a week later and no reply. I have a phone number for press and I will try that once the Oscars are over and I'm not overwhelmed with work. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Deadpool Cruises to $56.47 million Win

February 23, 2016

Deadpool held onto first place with $56.47 million over the weekend, while the best new release, Risen, was well back in third place with $11.80 million. It's not surprising the overall box office fell this weekend when compared to the last weekend. The overall box office fell 41% to $142 million, which is barely more than what Deadpool alone earned last weekend. This was still 19% more than this weekend last year, when Fifty Shades of Grey fell 74%. 2016's year-to-date lead roughly doubled to 3.5% at $1.63 billion to $1.57 billion. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: The Good Dinosaur

February 22, 2016

The Good Dinosaur looks like it will be the first Pixar film to lose money. It cost nearly $200 million to make, while there were reports that the advertising budget was $150 million worldwide. It needed to make over $500 million worldwide to have a shot at breaking even any time soon. It made barely more than $300 million, which wasn't enough to pay for its reported advertising budget. Is it as bad as its box office numbers would suggest? Or is there a reason this film failed to connect with audiences besides quality? More...

Weekend Estimates: Deadpool Continues to Dominate with $55 Million Weekend

February 21, 2016

After a $132 million opening, Deadpool wasn’t under much threat at the top of the chart this weekend, so a fairly sharp 58% decline to $55 million this weekend still leaves it dominant in movie theaters. That softness might be a slight concern going forwards, but for now Fox is reveling in having a February hit that has already grossed close to $500 million worldwide (Sunday’s official estimate is $491.9 million), and having Kung Fu Panda 3 hold on to second place with $12.5 million in its fourth weekend for a domestic total of $117 million. That left the three new wide releases fighting for places lower down the chart, although their performance was by no means all doom and gloom. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay

February 20, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Adapted Screenplay category is about as competitive as the Best Original Screenplay, which is to say it isn't competitive at all. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 20, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. The Best Original Screenplay category isn't the most lop-sided category we will highlight, but it is also not very competitive. More...

Friday Estimates: Deadpool Rises to the Occasion

February 20, 2016

Deadpool landed on the low end of expectations on Friday with $16.23 million. This puts it on pace to reach $56 million over the weekend, which is way more than the three new wide releases will earn. It also keeps the film on pace for more than $300 million domestically. Had it cost the usual $150 million to $200 million for a comic book movie, it still would have broken even. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Bewitching Results

February 19, 2016

The Witch had the fastest start on Thursday, with $630,000 from preview shows. This is almost identical to what Krampus earned late last year and that film earned $16 million during its opening weekend. Granted, Krampus was the only wide release that weekend and didn’t have to deal with any film as big as Deadpool. That said, this is still a good result for the film and it suggests it will top predictions, especially if moviegoers like it as much as critics did. Additionally, A24 said the advertising budget was “nominal” and that it was focused on the planned VOD / home market release in three months. It could break even by this time next week. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: When Mermaids Cry

February 19, 2016

It's a short list this week, but there are more than a few films worth talking about. The Mermaid is by far the biggest and it has already earned close to $300 million worldwide. Additionally, its director, Stephen Chow, has had some box office success here in the past. Unfortunately, it has No Reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, so it is hard to tell if it deserves breakout success here. More...

Contest: Got to have Faith

February 19, 2016

There are three wide releases next week, but Gods of Egypt is the overwhelming favorite. ... Well, to be more accurate, Deadpool is the overwhelming favorite, but Gods of Egypt should be the biggest hit of the three new releases. Therefore, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Gods of Egypt.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a Frankenprize consisting of either two movies, one full-season TV on DVD release, or three single-disc kids shows. Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Deadpool Looks to Outrace the New Releases

February 19, 2016

The box office doesn't look good this week, not when compared to last weekend. Last weekend Deadpool broke many records, from biggest February weekend, to more obscure records like biggest R-rated super hero movie. Worse still, there are three wide releases this weekend, but combined they still won't match Deadpool's sophomore stint. They won't even come close. Race and Risen should be in a close race for third place, while The Witch will likely just finish in the top five. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey remained in first place, despite dropping 74% to $22.26 million. Deadpool should crush that number. However, last year, there were also 6 movies that earned $10 million or more. This year, there might be only be two $10 million movies. More...

International Box Office: Deadpool and Mermaid Crack $100 Million Milestones

February 18, 2016

Deadpool opened in first place on the international chart, but it was surprisingly close. The film earned $125.0 million in 61 markets, which is a little lower than its domestic numbers, but its worldwide opening of $257.4 million is fantastic, especially for a film that cost $58 million to make. Its biggest opening came from the U.K., where it earned $20.52 million in 543 theaters. It also earned more than $10 million in Russia ($12.11 million in 1119 theaters) and in Australia ($10.87 million in 393). The film is already playing in most major international markets, but even if it just matches its opening weekend during the rest of its run, it will earn near enough a $100 million profit margin. There will be a sequel, but there may also be several copycat films as well . More...

Contest: You're Dead to Me: Winning Announcement

February 18, 2016

The winners of our You're Dead to Me contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deadpool opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Deadpool Tops Weekend and Yearly Chart with $37,222

February 18, 2016

Deadpool had the best theater average for the entire year with an average of $37,222. Granted, it is still early and there's no way this record will last till June, but it is still an incredible start. On the downside, there was no other film in the $10,000 club. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film

February 18, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Animated Film. Inside Out has a better than 90% chance of winning. If it doesn't win, it would almost certainly be the biggest surprise of Oscar night. More...

2015 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Documentary

February 18, 2016

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Documentary. Last year, this category was in chaos. This year, we have a favorite, a long shot with a shot, and then the rest. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Deadpool Assassinates the Competition

February 17, 2016

Most people thought Deadpool would be a big hit over the weekend. I didn't see a single prediction that said it would be this big. It earned $132.43 million over the three-day weekend, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and a healthy chunk of its advertising budget. ... Or at least its initial advertising budget. Needless to say, there is already a sequel in the works. How to be Single had a very solid opening, while Zoolander 2 will need to become a hit on the home market in order to break even. The overall box office rose 150% from last weekend to $239 million over three days. Wow. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey debuted. Deadpool made almost as much in the four days it was in theaters than Fifty Shades of Grey made in total. It goes without saying that 2016 won the year-over-year comparison. Its 11% difference is impressive. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $1.44 billion, which is 1.9% more than 2015's running tally at the same stage. More...

19th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition

February 16, 2016

Today we’re launching The Numbers 19th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition, our traditional chance for you to win some great prizes, and for all of our readers collectively to predict who will win the Oscars on February 28. The top selection for Best Picture in our contest has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 14 times in the previous 18 years we’ve run the contest, and we've correctly predicted the Best Animated Feature 11 times out of 14. That represents a batting average of close to 80%—an amazing performance when you consider that there are now nine or ten nominees for Best Picture each year.

Uniquely among Oscar contests, when you make your predictions, we show you how many people have voted for each movie so far, and allow you to go back and change your choices. In fact, you can come back at any time to update your predictions as news breaks and sentiment changes about different nominees. But beware our tie-breaking rule: if multiple people correctly predict the same number of winners, whoever made their picks first will win the prize.

So enter now for your best chance of winning our grand prize: every film nominated for Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. We will send you all eight films that are nominated as soon as they become available on the home market, and you get to choose either the DVD or Blu-ray version. Our runner-up will win the Best Picture and Best Animated Feature on DVD or Blu-ray. And, for our long-term players, the best performer from among our all-time top 200 players will win the Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray.

Click Here to Enter Now

More...

Home Market Releases for February 16th, 2016

February 15, 2016

There's no major release this week. I was tempted to give Spectre the Pick of the Week honor, but the screener arrived too late to get the review done over the weekend. None of the big releases are worth the Pick of the Week title. There are a number of smaller releases that are worth considering for Pick of the Week, including The Kid, which tops the list.

On a side note, this week's list is a little shorter than I would have liked, because the people who run Amazon are morons. They've changed the New Releases page, again, making it even harder to find a list of new releases for the week. Additionally, there are some films, like Black Mass, that weren't on the list of releases for this week before the changes were made. I understand why physical stores reorganize every once and a while, because if people have to walk to the store to find something, they are more likely to buy something else on a whim. However, these people physically walked to the store, so if they don't buy what they came for, it will be a wasted effort. On the other hand, people go to Amazon by clicking a button. Making it harder to find new releases for that week won't make it more likely they will buy something else. It means they are more likely to not buy anything at all. More...

2015 - Awards Season: BAFTA - Winners - Revenant and Mad Max Lead the Way

February 15, 2016

The BAFTA awards were handed out over the weekend. There were two main winners, The Revenant, which won most of its five awards in the high-prestige categories, and Mad Max: Fury Road, which earn all four of its awards in technical categories. It appears the Oscars will be very similar in that breakdown. More...

2015 - Awards Season: WGA - Winners - Spotlight Shines on Potential Oscar Winners

February 15, 2016

The Writers Guild of America awards were handed out over the weekend. Frankly, there wasn't a single surprise in any of the three theatrical categories, so there's not much to talk about. More...

Weekend Estimates: Deadpool Smashes February Record with $135m Debut

February 14, 2016

This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey broke one of the longest-standing records in the business by posting a $85.2 million opening weekend, besting the record for biggest weekend in February that had been held by The Passion of the Christ since 2004. Fifty Shades and, in 2014, The LEGO Movie dispelled the myth that big movies couldn’t open in February, and this year Deadpool is single-handedly making President’s Day weekend look like a Summer holiday weekend with an opening projected by Fox at $135 million for the Friday–Sunday period and $150 million over four days. More...

Friday Estimates: No Grey Zone for Deadpool

February 13, 2016

Sometimes a movie opens and it takes a while to figure out if it was a financial success or not. Deadpool is not one of those movies. Not only did its previews break a couple of records, it crushed a few more on Friday. Its opening day haul of $47.5 million is a new record for the biggest day in February, topping Fifty Shades of Grey by just over $10 million. It is also the biggest opening day for an R-rated film, topping The Maxtrix Reloaded for that record. It likely won’t have as strong legs as that film, despite its reviews, because the Fanboy Effect is strong with this movie. That said, the film cost just $58 million to make, so unless it cost more than that to advertise, it will break even just on its domestic box office. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Invading a Theater Near You

February 12, 2016

It's Valentine's Day weekend, so it should come as no surprise that there's a few romantic films on this week's list. On the other hand, the biggest release is Where to Invade Next. Its reviews are good, but it is opening in 300 theaters, which could prove to be too many. More...

Contest: Race to the Top

February 12, 2016

There are three wide releases next week. Of those three, I think it is safe to say The Witch has the weakest box office potential. However, there could be a close race between Race and Risen. Furthermore, both films lend themselves to contest names. (Race to the Top vs. Rise to the Top.) However, faith-based films tend to be too unpredictable, so we are going with Race as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Race.

Thursday Night Previews: Deadpool Has Lively Debut - Updated

February 12, 2016

Deadpool set two records for biggest February previews and biggest previews for an R-rated film with $12.7 million. ... I think it is safe to assume Deadpool 2 is on its way. The studio was expecting between $60 million and $65 million over the four-day weekend, but studios tend to downplay expectations so they can claim victory, even if the film is a little weaker than anticipated. With the record previews, I think it is safe to say it will top those expectations and even our $75 million prediction seems low. More...

Weekend Predictions: Deadpool Looking for Dead Presidents

February 11, 2016

It's Valentine's Day weekend and Presidents Day long weekend, so the box office should be very robust, at least compared to last weekend. Deadpool has the best reviews and the best buzz and should have no trouble earning first place at the box office. Zoolander 2 is earning weak reviews, but nostalgia could help during its opening weekend. Finally there's How to be Single, which is a Romantic Comedy. Any romantic film should do well on Valentine's Day, even one earning mixed reviews. This weekend last year, Fifty Shades of Grey came out, which is a movie my mind keeps trying to forget happened. It earned just over $85 million during its opening weekend, but less than that during the rest of its run. Deadpool won't open as fast, but it very likely won't collapse next weekend either. 2016 will lose in the year-over-year comparison in the short run, but perhaps by Monday, the tide will turn. More...

International Box Office: Force Awakens Drops Out of Top Five, but Cracks $2 Billion Worldwide

February 10, 2016

The Revenant returned to first place with $24.0 million in 67 markets over the weekend for totals of $176.4 million internationally and $325.9 million worldwide. By this time next week, the film will very likely be above $200 million internationally, while $400 million worldwide is within reach. More...

Contest: Seize Your Prizes: Winning Announcement

February 9, 2016

The winners of our Seize Your Prizes contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Hail, Caesar! opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: I Knew Her does Relatively Well with $9,312

February 9, 2016

No films earned more than $10,000 on the theater average chart. I Knew Her Well came the closest with $9,312 in its lone theater. Kung Fu Panda 3 landed in second place with just $5,328, which shows you how bad the weekend was. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Broncos Biggest Winners, but Pandas still earn $21.24 million

February 8, 2016

Super Bowl weekend was not a good weekend at the box office. The competition usually takes its toll at the box office, but this year it was particularly bad. Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way with just $21.24 million, while Hail, Caesar! was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. In fact, the weekend was so bad that Star Wars: The Force Awakens remained in third place during its eighth weekend of release. The overall box office took a massive hit, down 31% to just $95 million. This was 37% lower than the same weekend last year, but miraculously, 2016 maintained its lead over 2015, by the tiniest of margins, $1.34 billion to $1.33 billion. With a difference of 0.5% or $6 million, the lead will likely disappear during the week, but 2016 should get it back when Deadpool debuts this Friday. More...

Home Market Releases for February 9th, 2016

February 8, 2016

It's a strange week on the home market, as we have a monster release coming out, Spectre. There are also four or so releases that are contenders for Pick of the Week. But after that, there's a huge drop in quality and we quickly reach releases that are not even worthy of being fillers. Of the contenders, Grandma is the Pick of the Week and it is certainly worth picking up on Blu-ray. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Grandma

February 7, 2016

Grandma was Lily Tomlin's first starring role in nearly 30 years. She clearly wasn't rusty and there was even some Oscar-buzz for her performance. That didn't pan out. Is it as good as its reviews? Or was nostalgia at play here? Were critics just so happy Lily Tomlin was back that their judgment was clouded? More...

Weekend Estimates: Panda holds off Caesar on Super Bowl weekend

February 7, 2016

Super Bowl weekend isn’t exactly known for super-sized box office results, and this year will prove to be no exception, with Kung Fu Panda 3 comfortably winning the weekend with $21 million, down 49% from its debut. Hail, Caesar! will land in second place with $11.4 million or so, which is a decent performance from 2,232 theaters, although quite a bit softer than The Ladykillers’ $12.6 million first outing from 1,583 theaters back in 2004, and well behind the kind of numbers posted by True Grit. More...

2015 Awards Season: DGA Winners—The Revenant Bounces Back

February 7, 2016

The Directors Guild of America awards were handed out and it was a big night for Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and The Revenant. More...

Friday Estimates: Panda Buries Caesar

February 6, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 will easily win the race for top spot at the weekend box office. Not only did it earn first place on Friday with $5.2 million, but of all of the wide releases, it will be among the least affected by Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately, this is still a little lower than predicted and it will likely only earn just over $20 million over the weekend. Its worldwide total is closing in on its production budget and it has barely started its international run, so there’s plenty of reason for DreamWorks to be happy, and there’s justification for another installment in the franchise. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Regression and Regret

February 5, 2016

It is a bad week for limited releases. Not only are there not a lot of films on this week's list, but most of them are earning reviews that suggest they will struggle in limited release. The biggest film, Regression, is also the worst film, while Rams is at the opposite end when it comes to reviews and theater count. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Hail Storms into Theaters

February 5, 2016

Hail, Caesar! got off to a relatively good start on Thursday earning $543,000 at 1,815 theaters. This puts it in between the previews for Dirty Grandpa and The 5th Wave, meaning it is on pace for close to $11 million over the weekend. Its positive reviews could help it over $11 million, which would match predictions perfectly. More...

Contest: You're Dead to Me

February 5, 2016

Next week, there are three wide releases, but only one of them truly matters: Deadpool. The rare R-rated Super Hero movie looks to become the first of that subgenre to earn $100 million at the box office. The big question is if it can turn its Intenet buzz into real buzz. I'm cautiously optimistic. Even its low-end expectations will very likely put it in first place next weekend. Because of that, it is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Deadpool.

Weekend Predictions: Hail, Holdovers!

February 4, 2016

It's a new month and there are three wide releases trying to score and get February off to a fast start. That's probably not going to happen. Not only do the wide releases have to deal with Kung Fu Panda 3, but it is also Super Bowl Weekend with the Carolina Idontknows Playing the Dever Somethingabouthorses. ... Once the Seattle Seahawks were eliminated, I completely stopped caring about the NFL. The best new release of the week is Hail, Caesar!, which is the only film with a real shot at becoming a midlevel hit. Pride and Prejudice and Zombies started out with mixed reviews, but that might not be a dealbreaker for its target audience. Finally there's The Choice. There are still not enough reviews for a Tomatometer Score and the buzz appears to be getting worse. The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water led the way this weekend last year, with more than all three new releases will earn this year. More...

International Box Office: Panda Tops Chinese Box Office earning $75.7 million Internationally

February 4, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 opened in first place on the international chart with $75.7 million in six markets over the weekend. This includes a first place, $50.77 million over the weekend in China for a total opening of $57.47 million. The film also earned first place in South Korea with $9.14 million on 1,364 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.54 million. Its other major market opening was in Russia, where it topped the chart with $4.71 million on 1,190 screens. The film will clearly do better internationally than it will domestically. It is too soon to tell how well it will do worldwide when compared to the other films in the franchise. More...

Contest: Kung Fu Dino: Winning Announcement

February 3, 2016

The winners of our Kung Fu Dino contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Kung Fu Panda 3 opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Panda Eats the Competition with an average of $10,438

February 3, 2016

There was only one film in the $10,000 this week, Kung Fu Panda 3, which earned an average of $10,438. The best limited release was Rabin The Last Day, which opened with $7,940 in one theater. More...

Home Market Releases for February 2nd, 2016

February 2, 2016

This week the home market is led by a Blu-ray double-dip, Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, while there is also an Oscar contender, Bridge of Spies, on the top. After that, the list is filled with bombs and weaker limited releases. It was an easy choice to select Snow White as Pick of the Week. More...

Featured Blu-ray Review: Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs

February 2, 2016

Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs is a movie I swear I've reviewed. Maybe I've reviewed so many Disney classics that I can no longer remember which ones I've reviewed and which ones I haven't. This film is absolutely a classic in both senses of the word. It is the first feature-length cell-animated film, first hitting theaters nearly 80 years ago. Additionally, it is widely considered one of the best feature-length animated films of all times. However, part of that is due to nostalgia and how ground-breaking it was. If you ignore the age and the technological marvel it was at the time, does it still live up? Or has it aged poorly. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Kung Fu Wins with $41.28 million lifting Box Office Along the Way

February 2, 2016

Kung Fu Panda 3 led the way during the weekend with $41.28 million over the weekend. This was below admittedly optimistic predictions, but still great for this time of year. The rest of the new releases were not as strong and it is likely all three will lose money in the end. Fortunately, Kung Fu Panda 3 was strong enough to help the overall box office grow. The overall box office rose 22% to $139 million. More impressively, and more importantly, the box office was 38% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $1.01 billion, reaching the $1 billion mark faster than last year. It wasn't the fastest year to get there, as 2010 holds that record thanks to Avatar. 2016 has regained the lead over 2015 at 1.9% or $19 million. Obviously the usually caveats apply here: It is far too early and that lead is far too small to be of real significance. That said, it is always better to be ahead than to be behind, no matter how small that lead it. More...

2016 Preview: February

February 1, 2016

As expected, January was dominated by holdovers with Star Wars: The Force Awakens and The Revenant leading the way. That's not to say there were no new releases that did well, as Ride Along 2 and Kung Fu Panda 3 were hits with moviegoers. Looking forward, there is only one film that looks like a sure hit, Deadpool. There's a slim chance it could be a surprise $200 million hit. There's a much better chance it will be the only $100 million hit. Conversely, last February started with a $100 million hit coming out, The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, while there were two other $100 million movies to come out that month, Fifty Shades of Grey and Kingsman: The Secret Service. Looks like 2016 is going to lose in the year-over-year comparison. More...

The Numbers News - February 2016

Quick Links