The Numbers News - April 2017
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Weekend Estimates: Niche Audiences to the Fore at Home, Guardians Big Overseas
April 30, 2017
The last weekend before the Summer season is generally a quiet one, but two breakout hits aimed at niche audiences are making this one interesting. How to Be a Latin Lover will post a shade over $12 million from just 1,118 theaters, according to Lionsgate’s weekend estimate. That would be the news of the weekend if it wasn’t for Baahubali 2: The Conclusion earning the best weekend for a Bollywood movie in history with a stellar $10.1 million from just 425 locations. Those two films couldn’t knock The Fate of the Furious off top spot though, as the action blockbuster added another $19.4 million, to take its domestic total to $192.7 million.
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Friday Estimates: Audiences are still in Love with Furious
April 29, 2017
The top five this weekend looks a little different than anticipated. Okay, “a little” might be an understatement. The Fate of the Furious dominated Friday’s box office with $5.1 million, which puts it on pace for $18.5 million for the weekend. This is almost exactly as expected. Some of the new releases were a little more surprising.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Below Average Releases
April 28, 2017
It is not a good week for limited releases. Only two of the films on this week’s list are earning any level of buzz, Below Her Mouth and Rupture. However, both are earning bad reviews and are playing on VOD, so their box office chances are nearly zero. There are a couple of documentaries earning 100% positive reviews at the moment, Bang! The Bert Berns Story and Harold and Lilian: A Hollywood Love Story. If you like roc ‘n’ roll, check out the former. If you are a cinephile or if you are a regular on this site, then check out the latter.
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47 Meters Down Trailer
April 28, 2017
Aquatic horror movie starring Claire Holt and Mandy Moore opens June 16 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Circle Doesn’t Live Up to its Promise with $430,000 While Moviegoers Love Latin with $450,000
April 28, 2017
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The Circle was the first film to release Thursday preview numbers and they were not good at just $430,000. Granted, this is far from the worst we’ve seen this year. The Promise only managed $200,000 last week. If The Circle has the same legs during its opening weekend, it will only manage $9 million. Even that might be asking too much, as its reviews went from 50% positive when we made our prediction to just 21% positive today. I really don’t think it will manage $12 million over the weekend. We will have a better idea tomorrow when Friday’s numbers show up.
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Contest: Guard These Prizes
April 28, 2017
There is only one wide release next weekend, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2. Because of that, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprise consisting of their choice of either one TV on DVD release, two movies, or a kids package (could be a theatrical release, a couple of single-disc TV on DVD releases, or a full season TV on DVD release). Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Theater Counts: Circle Plays in 3,163 Locations; Guardians Coming to 4,200 Theaters Next Week
April 27, 2017
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April comes to end with two wide releases that have modest ambitions at the box office. The Circle opens in 3,163 theaters for STX Entertainment, who will be happy if it beats The Bye Bye Man’s $13.5 million opening weekend and becomes their second-best opening to date (Bad Moms holds the record for the studio, with $23.8 million—a number they would be thrilled with). Speaking of records, The Circle holds a very unusual one…
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Megan Leavey Trailer
April 27, 2017
Drama starring Kate Mara, directed by Gabriela Cowperthwaite, opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Predictions: April Circles the Drain
April 27, 2017
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The last weekend in April is usually a terrible weekend and this year is no different. There is only one truly wide release this week, The Circle, although How to be a Latin Lover has a shot at the top five. There are also two films opening in approximately 500 theaters hoping to sneak into the top ten: Sleight and Baahubali 2: The Conclusion. However, while it seems like a busy week for new releases, The Fate of the Furious will easily remain in first place. In fact, the top five this week could be nearly identical to the top five last week, with The Circle being the only nearly guaranteed new addition. This weekend last year, The Jungle Book led the way with $44 million, while the biggest new release was Keanu with just under $10 million. The new releases might be stronger this time around, but there’s almost no way 2017 will be able to compete with The Jungle Book.
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International Box Office: Furious Fast Start Leads to a Quick Fall with $158.1 million
April 26, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is living fast, but plummeting just as fast down 64% to $158.1 million on 19,757 screens in 65 territories for totals of $745.03 million internationally and $908.34 million worldwide. The film is now the biggest hit of 2017 on the international chart and is behind only Beauty and the Beast on the 2017 worldwide chart. The film’s biggest opening of the past weekend came in Poland where it earned $2.7 million on 187 screens, which is the best opening for the Fast and the Furious franchise in that market. Its biggest market overall continues to be China, where it added $55.28 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $321.65 million. The is the second biggest box office for a Hollywood release in China, behind only Furious 7, which earned $390.87 million there.
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Captain Underpants Trailer
April 26, 2017
Animated adventure with the voices of Ed Helms, Kevin Hart, and Thomas Middleditch opens June 2 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Forget About It: Winning Announcement
April 26, 2017
The winners of our Forget About It contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Unforgettable’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Jane Towers Above the Competition with $15,726
April 26, 2017
There were only two films in the $10,000 club on this week's theater average chart and both of them were biographical documentaries. Interesting coincidence. Citizen Jane: Battle for the City led the way with an average of $15,726 in two theaters. Meanwhile, Jeremiah Tower: The Last Magnificent just managed to hit the $10,000 mark with an average of $10,134, also in two theaters.
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Home Market Releases for April 25th, 2017
April 25, 2017
We are entering the worst time of year for the home market. The number of Oscar contenders have nearly dried up and there are more bombs than box office hits. As for the best of the new releases, The Criterion Collection release for Tampopo is the best and the only real choice for Pick of the Week. Meanwhile, the Mean Dreams DVD earns Puck of the Week, for the best Canadian release of the week.
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Kingsman: The Golden Circle Trailer
April 25, 2017
Action movie starring Taron Egerton, Mark Strong, Sophie Cookson, Julianne Moore, and Colin Firth, directed by Matthew Vaughn, opens September 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Furious Slows and New Releases Stall, Leaving Box Office short by $60 million
April 25, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the weekend box office chart. It held up a little better than expected with $38.41 million over the weekend; however, this was still over 60% lower than its opening weekend and the overall weekend fell over $60 million or 36% from last weekend for a total of $107 million. A lot of the blame can be pushed onto the new releases, as none of them earned a spot in the top five. Born in China was the best of the new releases earning sixth place with $4.79 million. Year-over-year, 2017 was 16% lower than 2016, but fortunately, 2017 still has an impressive $200 million lead over 2016 at $3.53 billion to $3.33 billion.
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The Lovers Trailer
April 24, 2017
Romantic comedy starring Debra Winger and Tracy Letts opens May 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: La La Land
April 24, 2017
La La Land was one of the best-reviewed films of the year and inarguably the biggest player during Awards Season. In fact, it earning 14 Oscar Nominations, tying the record previously set by All About Eve and Titanic. However, this caused a bit of a backlash against the film. Is the film as good as its Awards Season run would indicate? Or did it only do as well as it did, because it was practically designed to sway Oscar voters?
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Weekend Estimates: Big Decline, Big Win for Fate of the Furious
April 23, 2017
A decline of 61% compared to its opening weekend still leaves The Fate of the Furious the big winner at the box office this weekend, with the five new wide releases combined making less than half the $38.7 million it will earn on its second weekend, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. The film’s domestic gross will end the weekend at about $163.6 million. As of last night, it has reached $636.3 million internationally, and it should end the weekend with $752.4 million overseas, for a global total of $916 million as of Sunday. $327.4 million of that will have come from China, where Fate is clocking up another $67 million this weekend.
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Friday Estimates: Furious Falls 75%, Still Dominates Friday with $11.2 million
April 22, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office chart on Friday with $11.2 million. This could be more than any other film will earn during the entire weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news is this still represents a decline of just over 75% from its opening Friday. This is not good by any stretch of the word, but it is also not unexpected. The film will rebound on Saturday, and earn about $35.5 million over the weekend, according to Universal, which is close to our prediction and will lift the film’s running tally to $160 million. This keeps The Fate of the Furious on pace for $200 million and the film should become the third film released in 2017 to get to that milestone. It might overtake Logan on the yearly chart, but Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 2 will probably get there first.
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Phoenix Forgotten Trailer
April 21, 2017
Found-footage thriller starring Florence Hartigan, Chelsea Lopez, and Justin Matthews opens today ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: New Releases are Showing Very Little Promise
April 21, 2017
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There are five films opening wide or semi-wide this weekend and four of them have previews. (Phoenix Forgotten is the lone exception.) At the moment, we only have numbers for The Promise and they are not good. The film pulled in $200,000 in previews last night, putting it on par with The Space Between Us. That’s not good news, as that film missed the Mendoza Line by a large margin. The Promise is playing in fewer theaters and it is earning better reviews, so it might not open below the Mendoza Line, but its theater average won't be much above $2,000 in the best of circumstances.
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Limited and VOD Releases: The Happiest Week for Limited Releases
April 21, 2017
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Normally we only talk about films with ten or more reviews on this list, but this week there were just two such films: The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki and Slack Bay. Furthermore, only one of those is earning good reviews. There are also a couple of documentaries that are earning great reviews, but overall it is a slow week.
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Contest: Circle of Prizes
April 21, 2017
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April is finally over next week. On our April preview, we had three films opening wide this week, but two of those have been dropped to semi-wide or lower. This leaves just The Circle as the only truly wide release. As such, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Circle.
Our April Fools contests conclude this week. Two of our winners will win two previously reviewed movies, while the third will win the April Fool’s prize, a movie on HD-DVD.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies or a film on HD-DVD. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies or a film on HD-DVD. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of two previously reviewed movies or a film on HD-DVD.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Bankability Index: Tom Cruise Still King of the Hill
April 20, 2017
This month we’re introducing a new Bankability Index that estimates how much someone is worth to a film based on analysis of the Hollywood Creative Graph™, a network of over 130,000 people with over 6 million connections that represent all the films they have worked on together. By using an analytical technique called graph analysis, the Bankability Index measures the influence of each person in the Hollywood Creative Graph, which we translate into an estimate of the average value added per movie by everyone. Here on The Numbers, we will now publish each month the top 50 people on a per-movie basis, and subscriptions are available for our full report, which contains information on the top 250 people in the business.
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Theater Counts: Furious Continues to Dominate in Theaters
April 20, 2017
No less than five wide new releases are vying for attention this weekend, but they are all looking at fairly modest theater counts. In fact, they’re all playing in between 1,000 and 2,500 theaters, with the widest of the lot being Unforgettable, which debuts in 2,417 locations. The last time we had this many films opening at that wide a distribution was almost ten years ago—the weekend of October 3, 2008 to be precise. That weekend was quite the scramble, with a total of seven films opening or expanding wide, and another opening in over 500 theaters. This weekend isn’t quite as crazy, but no-one can complain about a lack of choice.
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Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Very Forgettable
April 20, 2017
Late April is one of the traditional dumping grounds and this week is truly living down to that reputation. There are five new releases that have at least a shot at the top ten, but none of them have a shot at becoming midlevel hits. Unforgettable is the widest new release of the week and will likely be the biggest hit, but it very likely won’t be the best. Free Fire and Born in China are in a close battle for the best reviews for the week. Meanwhile, The Promise and Phoenix Forgotten are just hoping to avoid opening below the Mendoza Line. I think earning a theater average above $2,000 is overly optimistic for either film. There’s a lot of competition, but nearly all of it is terrible, so The Fate of the Furious will have no trouble repeating in first place. Furthermore, both The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast will likely remain in the top five, meaning there’s not a lot of room for the other films. This weekend last year, The Jungle Book earned just over $60 million over the weekend, while The Huntsman: Winter’s War opened with close to $20 million. There’s no way 2017 will be able to match this one-two punch.
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International Box Office: Furious Goes from Zero to $500 million in one Weekend
April 19, 2017
The Fate of the Furious dominated in the international chart with $433.2 million in 63 markets. This is the biggest international weekend of all time, beating the previous record holder, Jurassic World, by over $100 million. Interestingly, both of these films were released by Universal. Furthermore, the film has already topped the international totals of all but the two more recent installments in the Fast and the Furious franchise. On the downside, the international opening weekend record isn’t the most prestigious record, because it depends a lot of how wide a release a film has. For instance, The Fate of the Furious opened in all but four markets this past weekend and of the remaining markets, only Japan is a significant market. The film has the number one overall international weekend, but only broke weekend records in 20 of the 63 individual markets and only one of those markets could be considered a major market. That one market was China.
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American Assassin Trailer
April 19, 2017
Thriller starring Dylan O’Brien, Michael Keaton, and Sanaa Lathan, directed by Michael Cuesta, opens September 15 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Leave it Up to Fate: Winning Announcement
April 19, 2017
The winners of our Leave it Up to Fate contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Fate of the Furious’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Going From A to Zed with $27,544
April 19, 2017
The Lost City of Z led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $27,544 in four theaters. The film is expanding into several hundred more theaters this Friday, so this is a great start. The overall number one film, The Fate of the Furious, was next with an average of $22,920. Norman: The Moderate Rise and Tragic Fall of a New York Fixer opened with nearly $100,000 in five theaters for an average of $19,842. The final film in the $10,000 club was Chasing Trane with $16,626 in its lone theater.
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Star Wars: The Last Jedi Trailer
April 18, 2017
Sci-fi adventure starring Daisy Ridley, Oscar Isaac, and John Boyega, directed by Rian Johnson, opens December 15 ... Full Movie Details.
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Home Market Releases for April 18th, 2017
April 18, 2017
We are entering the worst time of the year on the home market. There’s only a trickle of last year’s Awards Season contenders left to deal with, while it is way too early for the major spring releases to come out on DVD / Blu-ray. There are some classic titles that are on this list, like Donnie Darko: 15th Anniversary Limited Edition or Ocean Waves Blu-ray Combo Pack. However, the Pick of the Week isn’t either of these titles, but MST3K: Season 11, which you can watch on Netflix right now.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Fate Falls to Great Expectations, Still Earns $98.79 million
April 18, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated the box office this weekend, earning nearly a 60% share of the total box office. It did miss predictions, however, with “just” $98.79 million. This is the curse of great expectations. Overall, the box office rose 40% from last weekend, reaching $167 million. However, this was 5.1% lower than the same weekend last year. Had The Fate of the Furious matched expectations, then 2017 would have had a 5% lead over last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.37 billion and has a 7.2% lead over 2016. That will shrink as last year’s The Jungle Book’s legs will undoubtedly be better than The Fate of the Furious’s legs, but I don’t think 2017 will fall behind 2016 any time soon.
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Beatriz at Dinner Trailer
April 17, 2017
Drama starring Salma Hayek and John Lithgow opens June 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured VOD Review: MST3K: Season 11
April 17, 2017
There were rumors about MST3K being revived for a while, but it wasn’t until the Kickstarter materialized that I really thought it would make a comeback. I was one of nearly 50,000 backers who have been patiently waiting more than a year for the revival to start airing. On Friday, all 14 episodes of the show debuted on Netflix. I’m going to review the first four episodes of the show for two reasons. Firstly, the creators recommended not binging on the show. Secondly, it matches the old DVD reviews I’ve done.
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Weekend Estimates: Fate’s $100 Million Stateside Dwarfed by Huge International Haul
April 16, 2017
The Fate of the Furious is, as expected, posting great opening numbers domestically, with Universal projecting a $100.2 million opening weekend, but the real news this weekend is the record breaking in international markets. Helped by a gigantic $190 million in China—the biggest-ever three-day weekend in that territory—Fate is headed for an overseas debut of $432.2 million, according to the studio. That’s easily the biggest international weekend of all time, beating Jurassic World’s $316.7 million. It’s also ahead of the inflation-adjusted international opening for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II, which earned $314 million on its first weekend internationally, roughly equivalent to $375 million today.
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Friday Estimates: Fate Set for All-Time Worldwide Weekend Record
April 15, 2017
As expected, The Fate of the Furious dominated at the domestic box office on Friday, earning $45.6 million. This is not the best opening-day record for the franchise—Furious 7 owns that with $67.41 million—and it is almost a third lower than the previous installment, but if it manages the same legs, it will earn just under $100 million over the weekend. Universal is estimating an opening weekend of $103.8 million. Granted, this film’s reviews are 15 points lower than Furious 7’s, and that should hurt its legs. On the other hand, both films earned a solid A from CinemaScore. In fact, every film in the franchise since Fast Five has earned an A from CinemaScore. Consistency. A drop like this is troubling, but it is more than made up for by the film’s international performance…
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Analysis: Fate of the Furious Headed for $103m–$110m Opening
April 15, 2017
Universal just officially announced a $45.6 million estimated opening day for The Fate of the Furious. While that doesn’t put it in the top 50 days all-time, it will be the third-best day in April, behind the Friday and Saturday numbers for Furious 7, and sets the film up for a domestic opening over $100 million. Remarkably, the studio now has the film breaking Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ all-time record global weekend total of $529 million, with a projection of $534.2 million as of Saturday morning. We’ll have more on that as the weekend progresses, but for now here is how the domestic weekend might break down.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Don’t Get Lost on the Way to the Theater
April 14, 2017
We have a bumper crop of limited releases this week, with several that are earning outstanding reviews. Unfortunately, this means there’s way too much competition for all of them to thrive. The Lost City of Z has the loudest buzz and I think that will give it the edge at the box office.
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Thursday Night Previews: Fate Not Quite Furious with $10.4 million in Previews
April 14, 2017
The Fate of the Furious got off to a fast start with $10.4 million during previews last night; however, this wasn’t as fast as I was expecting. No one really thought it would match Furious 7’s $15.4 million from 2015, but it needed to come closer with $12 million if it’s going to get to our prediction of $116 million for the weekend. It is better than the $9.5 million in previews that Logan earned earlier this year. Coincidentally, both of those films has nearly identical opening weekend / previews multipliers and if The Fate of the Furious matches them, it will pull in just under $97 million over the weekend. Other tracking numbers have it still topping The Jungle Book’s $103.26 million opening weekend from last year. Splitting the difference gets us an opening weekend of almost exactly $100 million. It’s hard to complain when a film nearly gets to $100 million during its opening weekend, but this is the problem with great expectations.
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Contest: Forget About It
April 13, 2017
April is a mess. When I starting writing the April preview I identified nine films that I was not 100% sure were going to open truly wide. While writing the preview, one was pulled from the schedule and since then, two were downgraded to semi-wide or lower. Next weekend, Born in China is opening semi-wide, The Promise is right on the razor’s edge between semi-wide and truly wide, while we still don’t have an estimate for Free Fire. This leaves Unforgettable as the only confirmed truly wide release of the week. Because of this, it is the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Unforgettable.
Our April Fools contests continue this week. Two of our winners will win La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release. The Blu-ray Combo Pack doesn’t come out until the 25th, but the film is already out on Video on Demand.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of La La Land on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Theater Counts (updated): Fate of the Furious Takes Flight in 4,310 Theaters
April 13, 2017
The Fate of the Furious will break a record on Friday before a single person sits down in a movie theater: the film will become the widest live action release in Universal’s history when doors open tomorrow. The studio announced today that it will play in a gargantuan 4,311 locations [ed note: on Friday morning, that count was revised to 4,310, which doesn’t change any of the record rankings]. That’s the 12th-widest opening in history, and overtakes Jurassic World, which debuted in 4,274 theaters in 2015, as Universal’s biggest live action release. (Their widest release of all time, by the way, is the animated The Secret Life of Pets, which started out in 4,370 theaters.)
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Weekend Predictions: Furious is Fated to Outrace the Competition
April 13, 2017
The headline isn’t 100% accurate, because let’s face it, there is no competition this week. The Fate of the Furious is the only wide release of the week (Spark was dropped to select cities.) and it will beat the nearest competition likely by over $100 million. It will likely earn more than the rest of the box office combined will earn. There could be a close race for second place between The Boss Baby and Beauty and the Beast, but for the most part, there will be no mystery at the box office this weekend. As for this weekend last year, it was also really one-sided. The Jungle Book opened with $103.26 million, while Barbershop: The Next Cut was a distant second with $20.24 million. The Fate of the Furious will need to match this one-two punch, or at least come close, for 2017 to continue building on its lead over 2016. I’m cautiously optimistic.
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Detroit Trailer
April 13, 2017
Historical dramatization starring John Boyega, directed by Kathryn Bigelow opens August 4 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Ghost Comes to Life with $41.3 million
April 13, 2017
Ghost in the Shell rose to first place with $41.3 million in 57 markets for a two-week international total of $92.8 million. The film was aided by a first place debut in China. It earned $21.15 million over the weekend for a total opening of $21.49 million. It also opened in Japan with $3.2 million over the weekend. The film’s international running tally is nearly triple its domestic one and that spread will only grow. This will help the studio somewhat; however, it would need to make over $250 million internationally to have any real shot at breaking even.
Contest: Smurf to the Smurf: Winning Announcement
April 13, 2017
The winners of our Smurf to the Smurf contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Smurfs: The Lost Village’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Colossal Lives up to its Name with $30,057
April 12, 2017
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Colossal led the way on the theater average chart with an average of $30,057 in four theaters. Meanwhile, Their Finest was the only other film in the $10,000 club with an average of $19,049 also in four theaters.
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Thor: Ragnarok Trailer
April 12, 2017
Super hero adventure starring Chris Hemsworth opens November 3 ... Full Movie Details.
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Home Market Releases for April 11th, 2017
April 12, 2017
It is another shallow week on the home market. There are a number of Oscar-contenders on this week’s list, but the quality quickly drops off from that point. A couple of releases are contenders for Pick of the Week, but it is mostly filler. The best of this week’s list was Hidden Figures on Blu-ray and it is the Pick of the Week.
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Spark: A Space Tail Trailer
April 11, 2017
Animated adventure opens on Friday... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Baby and Beast Dominate Box Office with $26.36 million and $23.65 million
April 11, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, considering the time of year, but this was almost entirely due to holdovers. The Boss Baby earned $26.36 million, which was within a rounding of our prediction, while Beauty and the Beast was relatively close behind. This meant the best new release, Smurfs: The Lost Village, only managed third place. Furthermore, it wasn’t even close to second place. Overall, the box office fell 30% from last weekend. More importantly, it was 14% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $3.15 billion becoming the fastest year to reach $3 billion. It is also 6.4% or $190 million ahead of last year’s pace. It is still early, but 2017 is starting to build up a lead that will act as a cushion when it inevitably hits a soft patch.
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Featured VOD Review: Hidden Figures
April 10, 2017
Hidden Figures is an Oscar-bait movie, there’s no getting around that. It is an inspirational movie based on real life events that opened in limited release in December. Clearly they were going for Awards Season glory. It did earn a number of nominations, but was only able to pick up one award. On the other hand, the film earned nearly $170 million and is the biggest limited release hit of 2016. Is the film just a little too mainstream for Awards Season success? Did it deserve better on Oscar-night?
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Weekend Estimates: Baby Continues to Boss at the Box Office
April 9, 2017
The Boss Baby will score another win at the box office this weekend, with Fox predicting a total of $26.3 million for the weekend, down 48% from its debut, and $89.4 million to date. That’s a remarkably strong second weekend, considering that Beauty and the Beast will be down virtually the same proporation—45%—in its fourth weekend. Disney’s blockbuster will do $25 million for a cume of $432 million so far domestically. With $545.1 million internationally, the film now has $977.4 million worldwide, and will pass the billion dollar mark this week.
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Friday Estimates: Baby Bosses Around the New Releases, Maintains First with $6.86 Million
April 8, 2017
There was quite a race at the box office on Friday. The Boss Baby led the way with $6.86 million for the day, putting it just ahead of Beauty and the Beast, which made $6.85 million. This is a 56% decline from the film’s opening Friday, which is a little high for a family film. Granted, its reviews are not good, but it did get an A minus from CinemaScore. It should bounce back on Saturday, but a nearly 50% drop-off to just under $26 million is likely at this point.
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Theater Counts: Smurfs Open in 3,610 Theaters
April 7, 2017
Smurfs: The Lost Village is the widest new release this weekend, but, just as it’s struggling to get out the gate at the box office, it also struggled to win over theater owners faced with the choice of pushing Beauty and the Beast and The Boss Baby off their biggest screens, or out of the theater entirely. Beauty remains the widest release for the third straight weekend, and plays in 3,969 venues this time around. Boss Baby expands in its second weekend to 3,829. That makes for a daunting task for Smurfs to break out.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Sign Your Name. Here
April 7, 2017
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It is a busy week for limited releases with more than a dozen titles on this week’s list. This includes a quartet of releases with good reviews and loud buzz. Gifted’s reviews are good, but likely not good enough for limited release. That said, it has a shot at becoming a sleeper hit. Their Finest is a stellar British World War II dramedy, but the cast is more famous in the U.K. than here. Your Name is arguably the best film on this week’s list and it is a monster hit worldwide. However, it is playing in over 300 theaters and that might turn out to be too many. This leaves Colossal as the film with the best shot at mainstream success. Its reviews are not the best, but the combination of reviews, cast, buzz, and commercial viability is.
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Thursday Night Previews: Going has Stylish Start, while Smurfs is Going, Going, Gone
April 7, 2017
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There was an upset during Thursday’s previews, as Going in Style actually led the way with $600,000. However, demographics suggest it won’t remain in the lead for long. This is still not a great start, but it is nearly perfectly in line with expectations. The film’s reviews rose a little to 42% positive, but this still won’t help its legs. Look for an opening weekend of $10 million, more or less.
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Contest: Leave it up to Fate
April 6, 2017
It is an easy week to pick the target film for the Box Office Prediction contest, as there is only one wide release next week: The Fate of the Furious. (Spark: A Space Tail was supposed to open wide, but it is now opening in only a few hundred theaters.) Because of this, The Fate of the Furious is the only real choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Fate of the Furious.
Our April Fools contests continue this week. Two of our winners will win Sleepless on Blu-ray Combo Pack, which comes out on April 18th, although it is available on VOD right now. Meanwhile one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a potential winner of Sleepless on Blu-ray Combo Pack, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a potential winner, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final potential winner.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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Weekend Predictions: Will it be Smurfs and the New Releases Get Lost in the Crowd?
April 6, 2017
It is the first weekend of April and there are two and a half films opening wide this week. The widest of these is Smurfs: The Lost Village, but direct competition is going to hurt it at the box office. Going in Style is aiming to be a sleeper hit, but its reviews will likely get in the way of that. Meanwhile, The Case for Christ is opening in barely more than 1,000 theaters and it is aiming for the churchgoing crowd and no one else. On the positive side, it is Easter next weekend, so it should have good legs. Unfortunately for the new releases, it looks like The Boss Baby will have a relatively easy time repeating in first place, while Beauty and the Beast will be close behind in second. This weekend last year, The Boss opened in first place with $23.59 million, while Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice was right behind with $23.36 million. This week we should have at least two films top that, perhaps even three if Smurfs: The Lost Village is on the high end of expectations. 2017 should continue to add to its lead over 2016.
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International Box Office: Beauty Nears $900 million With $66.5 million
April 5, 2017
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Beauty and the Beast completed the threepeat earning first place on the international chart with $66.5 million in 55 markets for totals of $480.8 million internationally and $874.1 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it did do really well in a number of mid-level markets. Malaysia was the best earning $2.4 million, which is the second best opening in that market this year. Kong: Skull Island earned $2.6 million during its debut there. The Netherlands managed $1.8 million over the weekend for a total opening of $2.3 million, which is the best opening of the year so far. Likewise, it had the best openings of 2017 in both New Zealand ($1.4 million over the weekend and $1.7 million including previews) and in Chile ($1.5 million / $1.6 million). It will soon become the first film of 2017 to reach $1 billion worldwide and the 14th film from Disney to reach that milestone.
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Contest: Give Up the Ghost: Winning Announcement
April 5, 2017
The winners of our Give Up the Ghost contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ghost in the Shell’s opening weekend were...
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Theater Averages: Boss Baby Gets a Raise with $13,305
April 4, 2017
Wide releases again dominated the theater average chart taking two of the top three spots. This includes The Boss Baby, which led the way with $13,305. The only limited release in the $10,000 club was David Lynch: The Art Life with $10,823 in its lone theater. Last week’s champ, Beauty and the Beast, was right behind with an average of $10,789.
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Everything, Everything Trailer
April 4, 2017
Romantic drama starring Nick Robinson and Amandla Stenberg, directed by Stella Meghie, opens May 19 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Boss Blasts Off while Ghost Cracks
April 4, 2017
The Boss Baby beat expectations and earned first place with $50.20 million over the weekend. The strong competition pushed Beauty and the Beast into second place, but it nearly hit $400 million and it is on pace for $500 million, so I wouldn’t feel too bad for the film. On the other hand, you can feel bad for Ghost in the Shell, because an opening of just $18.68 million on a $110 million production budget is a disaster. Overall, the box office rose 16% from last week reaching $169 million. Compared to last year, the box office rose 28%, which is very impressive. Year-to-date, 2017 has pulled in $2.98 billion, putting it 6.1% or $170 million ahead of 2016’s pace. We are far enough into the year that a lead this big is significant. That doesn’t mean 2017 is guaranteed to come out ahead, but this is certainly reason to be optimistic.
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Oscar Contest Results
April 3, 2017
Thank you to everyone who entered our 20th annual Predict the Academy Awards Contest. As usual, the contest drew hundreds of high-quality entries, with the winners predicting 18 of the winners on what proved to be an crazy Oscar night.
Read on for our list of 2017 prize winners...
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Home Market Releases for April 4th, 2017
April 3, 2017
This is a terrible week on the home market, mostly. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story comes out on DVD or Blu-ray Combo Pack and the competition has clearly scared away any other top-level releases. The only other first-run release is Office Christmas Party, which is worth a rental, if you like anti-Christmas movies. As far as Pick of the Week contenders are concerned, there’s Rogue One... and really that’s it. There are a couple of other releases I highlighted, but they wouldn't be contenders during an average week. Don’t Kill It looks good for a low-budget horror movie, while Paterson is coming out on a featureless DVD / Blu-ray. They are worth picking up if you are a fan of their respective genres.
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Weekend Estimates: Boss Baby Beats Beauty
April 2, 2017
A great marketing campaign and a beautifully-timed opening will most likely combine to give The Boss Baby a win at the box office this weekend, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Victory isn’t completely assured, because the margin is fairly slim: Boss Baby is headed for $49 million, per Fox’s Sunday morning estimate, while Disney is expecting $47.5 million for Beauty and the Beast. Both studios expect Beast to win on Sunday, so the eventual winner will depend on today’s figures, but it would be a real surprise if the order changes when final numbers come in tomorrow.
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Friday Estimates: Baby Bosses Beast with $15.5 Million
April 1, 2017
The Boss Baby opened in first place on Friday with $15.5 million. This is higher than our original prediction and the adjusted prediction based on Thursday previews. Some are expecting an opening weekend of over $50 million, but that seems a tad high. The reviews have continued to improve and are now 49% positive, and the film earned an A minus from CinemaScore, which is bog standard for a family film. I think the direct competition from Beauty and the Beast will prevent it from getting to $50 million, meaning there will be a virtual tie on top of the charts over the weekend.
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2017 Preview: April
April 1, 2017
March was a month of extremes, led by two strong performances: Beauty and the Beast breaking records and Logan cracking $200 million with ease. There were also two other $100 million hits and another potential $100 million hit that we don’t have significant box office numbers for yet. This is fantastic. On the opposite end, there were three films on last month’s list that didn’t even open truly wide. This month won’t be as lucrative at the top, as The Fate of the Furious is the only film expected to top $100 million. Fortunately, it is expected to open with over $100 million. On the other extreme, there are many, many films on this list that I’m not sure will open wide. Fortunately, last April wasn’t any better. The Jungle Book made nearly $1 billion worldwide, but the other nine films combined made less than half of that. To emphasize: the other nine films that opened last April averaged less than $50 million worldwide each. If The Fate of the Furious can just come close to the previous installment of the franchise, then 2017 has a solid shot at topping 2016.
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