The Numbers News - February 2024

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Theater Counts: Dune blasts into 4,071 theaters

February 29, 2024

After two weeks as the most widely-available film in North America, Madame Web will take a backseat this week to the highly anticipated sci-fi epic feature, Dune: Part Two. The follow-up to 2021’s Dune, Dune: Part Two is set to begin its theatrical run in 4,071 movie houses, including IMAX and 70mm-format releases. That’s down a little from its predecessor, which debuted in 4,125 locations. More...

The Numbers Business Report looks at how much an Oscar is worth

February 29, 2024

With the Oscars coming up on March 10, the latest issue of The Numbers Business Report looks at how much Oscar nominations and wins are worth. The analysis includes a major update to our box office prediction model that now allows us to see how much our model thinks a film will have earned by the end of its run at any point after it has been released. It turns out that some films are helped a lot by a Best Picture nomination, and, even if they don’t win the big prize, also get a boost from the telecast. Others… not so much. Pick up a copy of the Report for details. More...

Imaginary trailer

February 28, 2024

Blumhouse horror movie starring DeWanda Wise and Pyper Braun opens exclusively in theaters on March 8 ... Full Movie Details.

When Jessica moves back into her childhood home with her family, her youngest stepdaughter Alice develops an eerie attachment to a stuffed bear named Chauncey she finds in the basement. Alice starts playing games with Chauncey that begin playful and become increasingly sinister. As Alice’s behavior becomes more and more concerning, Jessica intervenes only to realize Chauncey is much more than the stuffed toy bear she believed him to be. More...

Kung Fu Panda 4 trailer

February 26, 2024

Animated adventure starring Jack Black opens exclusively in theaters on March 8 ... Full Movie Details.

After three death-defying adventures defeating world-class villains with his unmatched courage and mad martial arts skills, Po, the Dragon Warrior, is called upon by destiny to… give it a rest already. More specifically, he’s tapped to become the Spiritual Leader of the Valley of Peace. That poses a couple of obvious problems. First, Po knows as much about spiritual leadership as he does about the paleo diet, and second, he needs to quickly find and train a new Dragon Warrior before he can assume his new lofty position. Even worse, there’s been a recent sighting of a wicked, powerful sorceress, Chameleon, a tiny lizard who can shapeshift into any creature, large or small. And Chameleon has her greedy, beady little eyes on Po’s Staff of Wisdom, which would give her the power to re-summon all the master villains whom Po has vanquished to the spirit realm. So, Po’s going to need some help. He finds it (kinda?) in the form of crafty, quick-witted thief Zhen, a corsac fox who really gets under Po’s fur but whose skills will prove invaluable. In their quest to protect the Valley of Peace from Chameleon’s reptilian claws, this comedic odd-couple duo will have to work together. In the process, Po will discover that heroes can be found in the most unexpected places. More...

Weekend projections: Bob Marley holds on at top of chart

February 25, 2024

A lack of new releases with mass-market appeal will allow Bob Marley: One Love to stay top of the chart at the box office this weekend. The biopic is projected to decline a respectable 53% from the Friday-to-Sunday portion of its opening weekend to earn another $13.5 million on this outing. That’ll take it to around $71 million in total after 12 days in release. Its closest challenger will be Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba—To the Hashira Training, which will come in with an impressive $11.575 million debut. Ordinary Angels is doing good business in third place with a projected $6.5 million opening weekend. More...

Dune: Part Two trailer

February 24, 2024

Sci-fi action movie starring Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya plays exclusively in IMAX theaters Sunday, February 25, and opens wide on Friday, March 1 ... Full Movie Details.

The mythic journey of Paul Atreides continues, as he unites with Chani and the Fremen while on a path of revenge against the conspirators who destroyed his family. Facing a choice between the love of his life and the fate of the known universe, he endeavors to prevent a terrible future only he can foresee. More...

Weekend predictions: One Love likely to stay number one on a busy weekend

February 23, 2024

Bob Marley: One Love looks like a clear favorite to top the box office chart going into the weekend, although it has quite a bit of competition, with three new wide releases vying for spots at least in the top five. Demon Slayer: To the Hashira Training looks like its biggest threat from the numbers we’ve seen so far. More...

Theater counts: Madame Web holds off a flurry of newcomers to remain widest release

February 22, 2024

Despite taking a backseat at the box office to Bob Marley: One Love during its opening frame, Madame Web once again finds itself as the widest release in North America this weekend, as it retains (mostly by contractual obligation) its opening count of 4,013 theaters. The superhero film starring Dakota Johnson has earned over $28 million in its first eight days, a figure that has been doubled by One Love, which opened alongside Madame Web on Valentine’s Day. This week witnesses three new wide releases, accompanied by a pandemic era film making its way back into cinemas. More...

Challengers trailer

February 21, 2024

Luca Guadagnino’s drama starring Zendaya, Mike Faist, and Josh O’Connor opens in theaters April 26 ... Full Movie Details.

Tashi Duncan is a former tennis prodigy turned coach and a force of nature who makes no apologies for her game on and off the court. Married to a champion on a losing streak, Tashi’s strategy for her husband’s redemption takes a surprising turn when he must face off against the washed-up Patrick—his former best friend and Tashi’s former boyfriend. As their pasts and presents collide, and tensions run high, Tashi must ask herself, what will it cost to win? More...

Weekend projections: One Love tops chart, and heads to $50-million-plus six-day opening

February 18, 2024

While it will technically fall short of having the best weekend of 2024 so far, Bob Marley: One Love is unquestionably the first hit of the year. Its unusual “opening weekend,” running from Valentine’s Day on Wednesday through the end of the President’s Day holiday on Monday, will generate $51 million at the box office, according to Paramount’s Sunday-morning projection. Its three-day, Friday-to-Sunday, opening will land at about $27.7 million, less than $1 million behind Mean Girls $28.6-million debut back in January. With excellent audience word-of-mouth, there’s still a chance Marley could top that figure. More...

Weekend predictions: Bob Marley could have the best weekend of 2024 so far

February 16, 2024

Bob Marley: One Love made a huge splash on Wednesday when it had the best mid-week opening day ever for a Valentine’s Day release. Its $14 million debut is also the best single day for a movie at the box office so far this year, comfortably beating Mean Girls’ $11.5-million opening day. This weekend, it could claim the biggest weekend of the year if it can top $28.6 million between Friday and Sunday. That landmark isn’t guaranteed, but the biopic should end the weekend with over $40 million in the bank, and possibly more than $50 million, from its first five days in theaters. More...

Drive-Away Dolls trailer

February 16, 2024

Action comedy starring Margaret Qualley and Geraldine Viswanathan, directed by Ethan Coen rolls into theaters February 23 ... Full Movie Details.

Jamie is an uninhibited free spirit bemoaning yet another breakup with a girlfriend. Her demure friend Marian desperately needs to loosen up. In search of a fresh start, the two embark on an impromptu road trip to Tallahassee, but things quickly go awry when they cross paths with a group of inept criminals along the way. More...

Theater counts: Madame Web weaves its way to widest release

February 15, 2024

After spending its first two weeks as the widest release and at the box office itself, Argylle slips to second this week, despite an increase in showings as it heads into its third week. The spy-action comedy has racked up just over $31 million in 13-days at the domestic box office, while bringing in roughly the same ($32 million) from overseas play. This week, the espionage feature will take a back seat to Valentine’s Day newcomers Madame Web, and the aptly-named considering the holiday, Bob Marley: One Love. More...

Arthur the King trailer

February 14, 2024

Animal adventure starring Mark Wahlberg arrives in theaters March 15 ... Full Movie Details.

Over the course of ten days and 435 miles, an unbreakable bond is forged between pro adventure racer Michael Light and a scrappy street dog companion dubbed Arthur. Light is desperate for one last chance to win, as he convinces a sponsor to back him and a team of athletes for the Adventure Racing World Championship in the Dominican Republic. As the team is pushed to their outer limits of endurance in the race, Arthur redefines what victory, loyalty and friendship truly mean. More...

Twisters trailer

February 12, 2024

Action thriller with an ensemble cast led by Glen Powell and Daisy Edgar-Jones opens in theaters July 19 ... Full Movie Details.

Kate Cooper, a former storm chaser haunted by a devastating encounter with a tornado during her college years now studies storm patterns on screens safely in New York City. She is lured back to the open plains by her friend, Javi to test a groundbreaking new tracking system. There, she crosses paths with Tyler Owens, the charming and reckless social-media superstar who thrives on posting his storm-chasing adventures with his raucous crew, the more dangerous the better. More...

Weekend projections: Argylle stays top on dismal weekend in theaters

February 11, 2024

With Lisa Frankenstein bombing, the distraction of the Super Bowl, poor weather in the Southeast, and no mainstream Oscar contender that hasn’t already played out, this will be the worst weekend at the box office in North America since December, 2022, and most likely the fourth-worst weekend since the post-pandemic era started on Memorial Day, 2021. After a poor debut last weekend, and a middling hold this weekend, Argylle will retain top spot on the North American chart more-or-less by default. More...

Weekend predictions: Lisa Frankenstein and Argylle battle one another, and the Super Bowl

February 9, 2024

The race for bragging rights at the box office looks as though it will be a tight one this weekend. Lisa Frankenstein is the marginal favorite, according to our model, but Argylle could squeak in a second win if it has a better-than-expected hold or Lisa Frankenstein falters. Both films will likely struggle to do much business, and could be hurt quite a bit by Sunday’s Super Bowl. More...

Theater counts: Argylle repeats but faces fierce competition from newcomers

February 8, 2024

Despite debuting lower than many expected, Matthew Vaughn’s Argylle easily topped the domestic box office charts in its opening frame, earning just over $17 million in its first three days, and taking in more than $11 million more than its closest competitor. This week looks to be a much closer contest with the release of 1980’s set horror-comedy, Lisa Frankenstein. More...

A Quiet Place: Day One trailer

February 7, 2024

Sci-fi horror movie starring Lupita Nyong'o opens in theaters June 28 ... Full Movie Details.

Experience the day the world went quiet. More...

2024 market prediction: a tough year ahead in theaters

February 7, 2024

The January revision to our 2024 prediction sees a revised expectation of $8.3 billion at the box office, down $100 million from our December forecast. That’s in spite of a net gain of two wide releases on the confirmed schedule, no major hiccups among the new releases in the first half of the month, and some good January earnings from films that were released at the end of the year.

The reason our prediction has fallen is that, while we’re seeing some interesting new announcements, they are not coming at a rate that’s quick enough to keep the market on track for our original $8.4-billion prediction.

Subscribe to The Numbers Business Report for an extended version of this report, delivered up to three weeks before we publish updates online, or read on for an overview of how our model thought the rest of 2024 will shape up in movie theaters, as of January 16… More...

Madame Web trailer

February 5, 2024

Super hero action movie starring Dakota Johnson, Sydney Sweeney, Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced and Tahar Rahim opens in theaters February 14 ... Full Movie Details.

Madame Web is a clairvoyant whose psychic abilities allow her to see within the spider world itself. This is the story of how she came to be. More...

Weekend projections: Argylle holds well through weekend for $18-million debut, The Chosen place a strong second

February 4, 2024

Argylle looked like it was heading to a dismal debut when we ran our predictions on Friday. It’s coming in well ahead of what our model was seeing based on $1.7 million in previews on Thursday, although it will end up with a so-so $18 million, according to Universal’s Sunday-morning projection. Meanwhile, The Chosen is exceeding expectations, and will end the weekend in second place. More...

Weekend predictions: Argylle set for weekend win, but falling well short of its potential

February 2, 2024

Argylle will almost certainly end this weekend at the top of the box office chart, but it looks as though it will struggle to live up to its potential. After posting just $1.7 million in previews on Thursday it will need to come storming back over the next few days to reach a respectable opening number. The Chosen: Season 4, Episodes 1–3 wasn’t far behind yesterday, earning $1.4 million on its first day in theaters. While it isn’t expected to have the legs to challenge Argylle, it should at least land a decent opening in the top 10. More...

Theater counts: Argylle hits 3,605 theaters this weekend

February 1, 2024

After three weeks of being the widest release in the land, Mean Girls slips into the third-place slot this week as a newcomer makes its way into theaters. The teen musical comedy has racked up just short of $62 million in its first 20-days at the box office, and has been running neck-and-neck with Jason Statham’s action flick, The Beekeeper in recent days, winning the weekend box office, but slipping to second on the daily charts during the week. This week will witness a new leader at the box office as Argylle makes its debut. More...