Weekend predictions: ’tis the weekend before Avatar, and nothing is stirring

December 9th, 2022

With holiday shopping in full swing, and Avatar: The Way of Water arriving next week, movie theaters will be very quiet this weekend. Unless something unexpected happens, this will be the second-slowest weekend of the year, behind the weekend of January 28, when Spider-Man: No Way Home recorded its sixth weekend win with a modest $11 million. Black Panther: Wakana Forever is predicted to top the chart for a fifth time this weekend, with our model thinking it’ll earn about $13.5 million. If it can’t top $10 million (which is a possibility), this might prove to be the slowest weekend of the year. More...

Weekend predictions: Black Panther will break November record, but maybe not the $200-million barrier

November 11th, 2022

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever earned $28 million from previews on Thursday, the 15th-best preview figure in history, and notably higher than the $25.2 million earned by the original Black Panther back in 2018. That sets it on a path to break the record for the biggest weekend in November, currently held by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire with $158 million, but our model thinks topping $200 million will be a hard task. More...

Weekend predictions: will Don't Worry, Darling’s strong previews translate into a great opening weekend?

September 23rd, 2022

After a months-long (social) media frenzy, Don’t Worry, Darling finally hits theaters this weekend, and Warner Bros. and theater owners had enough confidence in the film to book it in 4,113 movie houses, the widest opening since Bullet Train at the beginning of August. That film earned $4.6 million in previews on its way to a $30-million opening weekend. Now, Don’t Worry, Darling is off to a promising start itself, with $3.1 million in previews, which includes special event IMAX screenings on Monday. Will that translate into a big opening weekend? Here’s what our model thinks… More...

Weekend predictions: Barbarian the favorite going into brutally slow weekend

September 9th, 2022

The weekend after Labor Day is traditionally the slowest one of the year at the box office. But, to get the good news out of the way, there’s a good chance that won’t be the case this year, with the weekend of January 28 looking like it will hold on to that crown. The fact we’ll probably top the $34.8 million earned at the box office on the last weekend of January is down to three new wide releases, albeit ones that probably won’t set records at the box office. More...

Weekend predictions: a wide-open race for number one

September 2nd, 2022

This weekend at the box office is a forecaster’s nightmare, with a two new wide releases that are only playing in 1,880 and 1,184 theaters, a classic re-release that’s opening in 1,246 locations, and a recent blockbuster getting a re-release in 3,935 theaters. Making things even harder to predict is that tickets will only be $3 each at thousands of theaters on National Cinema Day on Saturday (see the Regal, Cinemark, and Marcus Theatres sites, and check your local listings—and note that the UK has National Cinema Day on Saturday too). There are four films that have a realistic chance of winning the weekend: Spider-Man: No Way Home, Bullet Train, Top Gun: Maverick, and (even though it’s a rank outsider) DC League of Super Pets. Any one of them would be a highly unusual box office winner, given how long all of them have been in theaters, but that’s mainly the result of a highly unusual lack of major new releases. More...

Weekend predictions: Sonic 2 set to top Sonic 1

April 8th, 2022

Two long years ago, Sonic the Hedgehog posted an excellent $58-million opening weekend. A few weeks later, theaters were shut across North America, and it would be more than a year before another film (F9 in June, 2021) earned more than $50 million on opening weekend. This weekend, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 will become the third franchise film, after Venom: Let There Be Carnage and Spider-Man: No Way Home, to have a bigger opening than its predecessor since the start of the pandemic. Maybe the history books will record this weekend as the unofficial “end” of the pandemic era at the box office, with Sonic neatly bookending its beginning and end. Even if we have a few more bumps ahead, though, Sonic 2 should cruise past the first Sonic film, and could earn as much as $70 million this weekend. More...

Weekend predictions: Morbius headed to $40-million debut

April 1st, 2022

After a gigantic debut for Spider-Man: No Way Home and a pandemic-record-setting start for Venom: Let There Be Carnage, Sony is looking for a super hero three-peat this weekend with the release of Morbius. While another number one opening is guaranteed, we’re not looking at quite the same kind of numbers this time around, with our model predicting an opening weekend in the $41-million range. More...

Weekend estimates: The Lost City tops with $31 million, RRR makes the top 3

March 27th, 2022

The Lost City looks as though it’ll post a weekend right in line with expectations, with Paramount projecting it’ll earn $31 million at the domestic box office this weekend. That’ll be enough for a comfortable weekend win, ahead of The Batman’s $20.5 million or so. Bollywood blockbuster RRR: Rise, Roar, Revolt will land in third with an impressive $9.5-million projected weekend. More...

Weekend estimates: Jujutsu Kaisen headed to $17.7-million weekend, The Batman tops $300 million domestically

March 20th, 2022

The Batman will pass $300 million at the domestic box office today, based on Warner Bros. Sunday-morning projection. It’ll be close though: the studio has it reaching $300.1 million today. With Spider-Man: No Way Home likely to surpass $800 million domestically in the next week, things are looking good at the box office right now. Having five new releases in the top 11 also helps, although Jujutsu Kaisen 0: The Movie is the only one of those to really break out. More...

Weekend predictions: The Batman will easily win the weekend, even with a steep drop

March 11th, 2022

After earning more than ten times as much as any other film last weekend, and having no competition from new wide releases this weekend, The Batman will cruise to victory at the box office this time around. In fact, it could drop by 90% from its opening and still win the weekend. So the more interesting question is how much it will fall exactly. More...

Weekend estimates: The Batman storms to $128.5-million projected domestic opening

March 6th, 2022

The Batman will earn about $130 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Warner Bros.’s Sunday morning projection. That would be a great result for a franchise reboot at any time, and it’s downright spectacular by current standards. It’s only the second film to open with more than $100 million since the beginning of 2020 (Spider-Man: No Way Home being the first, of course), and it’s performance narrowly exceeds the $123 million our model would have predicted for the film pre-pandemic. Is the pandemic’s effect on theatergoing beginning to wane? More...

Weekend predictions: $150-million opening on the cards for The Batman

March 4th, 2022

The Batman posted an impressive $21.6 million from preview screenings, according to Warner Bros.’ Friday-morning analysis, putting it on track for well over $100 million this weekend and easily the biggest opening since Spider-Man: No Way Home. Based purely on the preview numbers, our model thinks it could top $150 million this weekend, although that forecast needs to be tempered a bit because of the early screenings on Tuesday and Wednesday that are included in that “Thursday previews” number. More...

Weekend predictions: Uncharted debut confirms Tom Holland as the man of the moment

February 18th, 2022

If Thursday’s preview numbers for Uncharted are anything to go by, Tom Holland is just about the biggest star in the movie business right now. After nine weeks of near-total domination at the box office for Spider-Man: No Way Home, Holland’s new film looks set for an easy win over Presidents Day weekend, with a very good shot of posting the biggest weekend of 2022 so far. More...

Weekend estimates: Death on the Nile wins Super Bowl weekend

February 13th, 2022

The studios are in a cautious mood this morning, projecting a steep fall-off at the box office on Sunday thanks to the Super Bowl, and little upside from Sunday being the day before Valentine’s Day. That leaves the studio estimates somewhat behind what our model predicted on Friday morning, but still sees relatively solid debuts for Death on the Nile and Marry Me, at $12.8 million and $8 million respectively. Spider-Man: No Way Home continues to power ahead and will hit $759 million in total domestically by the end of the day today, per Sony’s prediction. That leaves it just $1.5 million behind Avatar on the all-time domestic list More...

Weekend estimates: jackass forever posts healthy $23.5 million

February 6th, 2022

jackass forever was the hot favorite to win going into the weekend, and it’ll win in some style, as it appears to have gained momentum as the weekend has progressed. On Friday morning our model predicted an $18.1-million opening weekend for the stunt-reality-comedy movie. Paramount projected a $20.7-million weekend on Saturday morning once they’d seen Friday’s numbers, and have now upped that to a projected $23.5 million this morning. While that’s not huge by the standards of the franchise (Jackass 3D opened with over $50 million back in 2010, for example), it’s a very respectable figure by pandemic standards, and a welcome increase in business for movie theaters that have lacked new content in recent weeks. Moonfall’s $10-million debut is more disappointing, but also a little ahead of where things looked based on its modest Thursday previews. More...

Weekend predictions: jackass forever headed for weekend win

February 4th, 2022

Barring a massive slump for the two new releases, Spider-Man: No Way Home will finally lose its box office crown for good this weekend, possibly slipping into third place behind both jackass forever and Moonfall. jackass is looking the easy weekend winner, based on its overall pedigree and respectable preview numbers on Thursday. More...

Weekend estimates: with no new competition Spider-Man makes it six out of seven domestically, passes $1 billion internationally

January 30th, 2022

Spider-Man: No Way Home will top the domestic box office chart for the sixth time this weekend, earning about $11 million, according to Sony’s Sunday-morning prediction. That will take it to $735.9 million in total, less than $25 million behind Avatar’s $760.5-million final domestic cume. That’s a landmark Spidey still has a good chance of hitting before its run is complete. One landmark it has hit this weekend is $1 billion internationally, becoming the 10th film to hit that mark all time, and the first ever for Sony. More...

Weekend predictions: Spider-Man heading for sixth weekend win

January 28th, 2022

With no new wide releases, this weekend at the box office will have an eerie familiarity to it. There’s a good chance that Ghostbusters: Afterlife will be back in the top 10 in its eleventh weekend in release. Licorice Pizza is almost certain to celebrate ten weeks in release with another top 10 finish. And standing over everything will be Spider-Man: No Way Home, which should break $10 million in its seventh week in theaters, and top the chart for the sixth time. Spidey should end the weekend with around $735 million domestically, putting it $25 million behind Avatar in the all-time race. More...

Weekend estimates: Spider-Man back to the top with $14.125 million on soft weekend

January 23rd, 2022

Spider-Man: No Way Home is back at the top of the box office chart this weekend, with Sony projecting it will earn $14.125 million this time around for a domestic total of $721 million. Scream will be down 59% from its opening (in line with our model’s prediction). Its $12.4 million takes it to $51.3 million so far. Redeeming Love is coming in well ahead of our Friday-morning prediction with $3.71 million over the weekend and will land in fourth place. More...

Weekend predictions: Spider-Man and Scream do battle for top spot

January 21st, 2022

After beating Spider-Man: No Way Home fairly handily last weekend, Scream will need a good hold to stay at the top of the chart this time around. Our model thinks Spidey will regain top spot, but it’s likely to be close between the two of them. This weekend’s new wide releases look like they will struggle to mount a challenge at the top of the chart. More...

Weekend predictions: Scream should top Spider-Man this weekend

January 14th, 2022

We should see a new movie at the top of the box office this weekend, with Scream heading for an opening somewhere around $30 million, and Spider-Man: No Way Home slowly descending from its stratospheric heights. More...

Weekend estimates: Spider-Man up to sixth all-time, 355 arrives with $4.8 million

January 9th, 2022

Spider-Man: No Way Home continues to power its way towards more records this weekend, passing Jurassic World and Titanic to become the sixth-highest-grossing film in history in North America. If you count Avatar as part of the Disney family now, No Way Home is also the new record holder for a non-Disney film. In the face of that competition, The 355 fell a little short of expectations, with $4.8 million. More...

Weekend predictions: 355 won’t stop Spider-Man

January 7th, 2022

The 355 goes up against the unstoppable force that is Spider-Man: No Way Home at the box office this weekend, and there’s really only one possible winner. Although the webbed crusader won’t be dislodged from the top spot, 355 could do decent business, and will tell us something about where the market stands as we start out 2022. More...

Weekend estimates: Spider-Man cruises past $600 million with a $52.7-million weekend

January 2nd, 2022

Spider-Man: No Way Home continues to pulverize its competition at the box office this weekend with another $52.7 million taking it past the $600-million mark in the domestic market. With another $644.9 million overseas, Spidey has now amassed a breath-taking $1.255 billion after 17 days in theaters. It’s now in the top ten films of all time at the domestic box office and the top 20 worldwide, with plenty of gas in the tank as it heads into the New Year. More...

Weekend estimates: Spider-Man rewrites pandemic rulebook with $253-million opening

December 19th, 2021

After two dismal years for the theatrical business, Spider-Man has returned to change the rules of the game. Again. Back in 2002, the first Spider-Man movie set an all-time record by opening with $114.8 million—becoming the first film to top $100 million at the box office in a single weekend. That was arguably the beginning of the modern era at the box office.

This weekend, Spider-Man: No Way Home may be kicking off the post-pandemic era with a gargantuan $253-million opening. That’s not just the best result of the pandemic. It’s the best by a huge margin, more than doubling the opening of Venom: Let There Be Carnage, which itself significantly outperformed expectations. Even more impressively, it’s the third-best weekend of all time, behind only Avengers: Endgame ($357 million) and Avengers: Infinity War ($258 million). In fact, a good Sunday number would take it into second place on that list.

Oh, and it’s already the highest-grossing film of 2021. More...

Weekend predictions: Spider-Man eyes $150-million weekend

December 17th, 2021

Spider-Man: No Way Home is already rewriting the pandemic record books, after posting a spectacular $50 million in previews on Thursday. That’s the third-best preview number ever, and well ahead of our model’s most optimistic prediction going into the weekend. Every film not in the Twilight Saga franchise that has earned even half that amount from previews has gone on to open with over $150 million. So a very, very big weekend is in store. So big, that it’s taken quite a bit of number crunching to settle on what I think is a good prediction. More...

Weekend estimates: West Side Story shows some legs with $10.5-million weekend win

December 12th, 2021

As I said on Friday, the measure of success for West Side Story is not so much how it opens as how strong its legs are. Based on its performance through this weekend, there’s cause for some mild optimism. Ahead of the weekend, our model expected an opening around $6.9 million, based on its debut in a relatively modest 2,820 theaters and current market conditions. Its $800,000 in preview earnings suggested a weekend close to $10 million was on the cards, and bumped the model’s prediction up to $8.27 million. This morning Disney announced a projected $10.5 million for the film over its opening weekend. While that’s hardly a reason for dancing in the streets, it does suggest the film will play well for a while. More...