2018 Preview: June

June 1, 2018

Incredibles 2

This May was an odd month, as Avengers: Infinity War opened on the last weekend of April, rather than the first weekend of May. This meant May started out slowly, but Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story did well enough to give 2018 a healthy lead over 2017. Looking forward, there are two potential monster hits this month, Incredibles 2 and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, and another $100 million hit, Ocean’s 8. Last June, there were four $100 million hits, led by Wonder Woman, which pulled in over $400 million. I think 2018 and 2017 will be an even match at the top, so 2018 will have to rely on depth to improve upon its lead over 2017.

Weekend of June 1st, 2018

Adrift

The first weekend of the month is the weekend after Memorial Day long weekend. The weekend after a holiday is rarely a good time to release a potential monster hit, and this year there are just three films, all of which would be happy earning just $50 million in total. Action Point was expected to earn first place, but the early theater count is just 2,000, so Adrift now has the edge. Meanwhile, Upgrade is opening semi-wide, but it has a shot at the top ten. Unfortunately for these three films, this weekend last year, Wonder Woman earned just over $100 million during its opening weekend and there’s no way 2018 will be able to compete with that.

Action Point

Action Point
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/ActionPointMovie/
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: June 1st, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for crude sexual content, language, drug use, teen drinking, and brief graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Daredevil, Amusement Park, Prologue, Non-Chronological, Corporations vs. Mom and Pop Store, Dysfunctional Family, Old Age Makeup
Directed By: Tim Kirkby
Written By: John Altschuler, Dave Krinsky, Johnny Knoxville, Derek Freda, John Altschuler, Dave Krinsky, Mike Judge
Starring: Johnny Knoxville
Production Budget: $19 million
Box Office Potential: $25 million million

I don’t think it is unfair to look at Action Point as a Jackass movie with slightly more plot. These films have made a lot of money at the box office, with very little spent on their production budgets. However, it has been five years since the last Jackass film came out and this one’s buzz is really quiet. Additionally, it is opening in fewer theaters than expected, so the studio doesn’t have a lot of faith in the film.

Adrift

Adrift
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/AdriftMovie/
Distributor: STX Entertainment
Release Date: June 1st, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for injury images, peril, language, brief drug use, partial nudity and thematic elements.
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Drama
Keywords: Romance, On a Boat, Extreme Weather, Disaster, Lost At Sea, 1980s
Directed By: Baltasar Kormakur
Written By: David Branson Smith, Jordan Kandell, Aaron Kandell, Susea McGearhart, Tami Oldham
Starring: Shailene Woodley, Sam Claflin
Production Budget: $35 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

This film is based on a true life story about a couple, played by Shailene Woodley, Sam Claflin, who try to sail across the ocean, only to be hit by a super storm. It is the biggest release of the week, but it still only has a 50/50 chance of matching its production budget domestically. If it can, and finds a receptive audience internationally, then it could break even early in its home market run.

Upgrade

Upgrade
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Upgrade.Movie/
Distributor: BH Tilt
Release Date: June 1st, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence, grisly images, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Body Horror, Cyborg, Death of a Spouse or Fiancée / Fiancé, Revenge, Artificial Intelligence, Paralysis, Confined to a Wheelchair
Directed By: Leigh Whannell
Written By: Leigh Whannell
Starring: Logan Marshall-Green
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at less than $10 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million

Logan Marshall-Green stars as a man who is mugged and during the mugging his wife is killed and he is left paralyzed. He is then approached by a billionaire inventor who tells him he can give him back his ability to walk with his new invention. However, it’s not just something to help his legs work again, it’s an AI that can completely take over his body, if given permission. He uses this to find the people who mugged him and killed his wife. Then things get weird. This film is earning some positive buzz and the early reviews are mostly positive. On the other hand, the film is only expected to open in 1,400 theaters and I fear it will be another Free Fire, as that was another stylish action film that failed to find an audience.

Weekend of June 8th, 2018

Ocean’s 8

The second weekend of June is the weekend Ocean’s 8 debuts. Its box office chances are better than any of the other films opening this weekend or the previous weekend. At first, that might seem like damning it with faint praise, but it does have a better than 50/50 chance of getting to $100 million domestically. On the other hand, I’m not 100% sure Hereditary and Hotel Artemis will even open truly wide. If Hereditary does open wide, it could be a big hit among its target audience, but it is too strange to attract mainstream audiences. Hotel Artemis is too similar to Upgrade in terms of its mix of raw action and thriller elements and the direct competition will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year, there were three wide releases, all of which missed expectations. Unfortunately for 2018, Wonder Woman earned $58 million over the weekend and that could be more than all three new releases this year are going to open with, leaving 2018 with its second loss in a row.

Hereditary

Hereditary
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: A24films.com/Films/Hereditary
Distributor: A24
Release Date: June 8th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for horror violence, disturbing images, language, drug use and brief graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords: Adult Child Dealing with the Death of a Parent, Death of a Son or Daughter, Car Accident, Dysfunctional Family, Supernatural, Cults, Occult, Séance, Dream Sequence, Sleepwalking, Demons, Possessed
Directed By: Ari Aster
Written By: Ari Aster
Starring: Toni Collette, Alex Wolff, Milly Shapiro, Gabriel Byrne
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $10 million

I’m of two minds when it comes to this movie. On the one hand, there are not a lot of horror movies in theaters right now and the film’s reviews are amazing. On the other hand, it looks like an “Art house horror”. These are films that please critics, but fail to find mainstream audiences. Recent examples include The Witch or last year’s It Comes at Night. If you know anything about this film’s plot, then you know “too bizarre for mainstream audiences” is an understatement. If you don’t know anything about the plot, then I’m not going to spoil it.

Hotel Artemis

Hotel Artemis
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Facebook.com/HotelArtemis/
Distributor: Global Road
Release Date: June 8th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for violence and language throughout, some sexual references, and brief drug use.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords: Near Future, Gangs, Doctors, Medical and Hospitals, Los Angeles
Directed By: Drew Pearce
Written By: Drew Pearce
Starring: Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, Brian Tyree Henry, Jenny Slate, Zachary Quinto, Charlie Day, Dave Bautista
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $20 million to $30 million
Box Office Potential: $15 million

Jodie Foster plays The Nurse, a woman who runs a secret hospital for criminals only. There are a lot of rules, including no violence within the hospital. However, when one of her patients steals something from a powerful crime boss, the crime boss decides he’s above the rules.

On the one hand, a lot of people are calling this film a rip-off of the John Wick films. On the other hand, I don’t care. The third film doesn’t come out until next year, so I’m happy we get more films that are trying to tap into the same style. More of this style of action film is appreciated. Back to the original hand, I think I’m in the minority here, so I don’t have a lot of faith in this film’s box office chances.

Ocean’s 8

Ocean’s 8
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Oceans8Movie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 8th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for language, drug use, and some suggestive content.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Heist, Life on the Outside, Fashion, Delayed Sequel, Genderbending Casting, New York City
Directed By: Gary Ross
Written By: Gary Ross, Olivia Milch, Gary Ross
Starring: Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Mindy Kaling, Sarah Paulson, Nora Lum, Rihanna, Helena Bonham Carter
Production Budget: $70 million
Box Office Potential: $105 million

This is both a delayed sequel and a gender-bent remake of the Ocean’s Eleven films. It has the loudest buzz of any film coming out in June so far, and by a large margin. There are some metrics that have it earning $120 million or more. However, this is the same metrics that had both Deadpool 2 and Solo: A Star Wars Story opening with $150 million, so I think that figure is overly optimistic. That said, I think it has a 50/50 shot at $100 million domestically. If it can match that internationally, then it will break even early in its home market run and that might be enough to justify a sequel or two.

On a side note, Anne Hathaway was scheduled to star in a second gender-bent con artist remake, The Hustle, but that film has been pushed back to 2019.

Weekend of June 15th, 2018

Incredibles 2

Incredibles 2 opens this week and it will destroy this competition, both from this year and last year. The two other films opening this week are Superfly and Tag, neither of which are expected to earn $50 million in total. This weekend last year, Cars 3 missed expectations with just $54 million, while Wonder Woman earned second place with $41 million. Incredibles 2 should earn more than those two films combined.

Incredibles 2

The Incredibles 2
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: https://movies.disney.com/the-incredibles-2
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: June 15th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG for action sequences and some brief mild language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Adventure
Keywords: Delayed Sequel, Super Villains, Family Movie
Directed By: Brad Bird
Written By: Brad Bird
Starring: Holly Hunter, Craig T. Nelson, Sarah Vowell, Huck Milner, Samuel L. Jackson
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $180 million to $200 million
Box Office Potential: $405 million

It has been 14 years since The Incredibles has come out and a lot has changed in the movie industry since then. Most importantly, the MCU has made Super Hero movies the norm. This boost in the genre’s popularity could help Incredibles 2 become the fastest opening film in the history of Pixar, topping Finding Dory. I think that’s a little too bullish for my taste. That said, I would be surprised if the film isn’t the third film to earn $100 million during its opening weekend this year. I suspect the film will have long enough legs to hit $400 million, especially since there is no direct competition for nearly a month and the most recent $100 million animated kids movie was Coco, so there’s a lot of pent up demand.

Superfly

SuperFly
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Superfly.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: June 13th, 2018
MPAA Rating: Not Rated
Source: Remake
Genre: Action
Keywords: African-American, Black Urban, Blaxploitation, Crime, Crime Thriller
Directed By: Director X
Written By: Alex Tse, Phillip Fenty
Starring: Trevor Jackson Campbell
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million
Box Office Potential: $20 million

Director X is a Canadian director who has mostly made music videos and just a couple of feature-length films up here. This is his first feature-length movie made for an American distributor, while a lot of the cast don’t have much in the way of star power. Furthermore, the buzz is incredibly quiet, so quiet that I’m not 100% sure it is opening truly wide. On the other hand, it is starting a couple of days early, so maybe that will help it at the box office. I’m still not bullish about its chances.

Tag

Tag
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: TagTheMovie.com
Distributor: Warner Bros.
Release Date: June 15th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for language throughout, crude sexual content, drug use and brief nudity.
Source: Based on Factual Book/Article
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Delayed Adulthood, Ensemble, Miscellaneous Sports
Directed By: Jeff Tomsic
Written By: Rob McKittrick, Mark G. Steilen, Mark G. Steilen
Starring: Ed Helms, Jake Johnson, Hannibal Buress, Jon Hamm, Jeremy Renner
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

This film is based on a real-life story of a group of friends who have been playing the same game of tag for 30 years. Now one of them wants to retire undefeated and his other friends try one last time to tag him. This is a strange premise to a movie and I’m worried audiences won’t accept the plot within the confines of the movie and most audience members will struggle to believe it is really based on real events. That said, there’s a good cast and audiences might be looking for a good comedy at this point of the year, so it has a real shot at becoming a midlevel hit.

Weekend of June 22nd, 2018

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is the only film opening wide this week and it will easily dominate the box office chart. However, it won’t be a success if it merely opens in first place. It won’t even be a success if it can top last year’s number one film, because of course it will. In this case, success will be determined by how well it does compared to its predecessor and whether or not it is the biggest hit of the month.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: JurassicWorld.com
Distributor: Universal
Release Date: June 22nd, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for intense sequences of science-fiction violence and peril.
Source: Based on Fiction Book/Short Story
Genre: Action
Keywords: Dinosaurs in the Modern World, Animals Gone Bad, Cloning, Dinosaurs
Directed By: Juan Antonio Bayona
Written By: Colin Trevorrow, Derek Connolly
Starring: Chris Pratt, Bryce Dallas Howard
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $220 million to $260 million
Box Office Potential: $450 million

I hate Jurassic World. I didn’t like it when it first came out and the more I think about it, the madder I get. I’m trying to keep that in mind when judging Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’s box office chances. It is widely expected to earn less than its predecessor, but how much less is up in the air. I’ve seen predictions range from barely more than $300 million to almost $600 million. I think $425 million or less will be seen as a disappointment, especially if it is not the biggest hit of the month, but still more than enough to ensure the untitled sequel going along without a hitch. Anything above $500 million will be seen as a major success.

Weekend of June 29th, 2018

Sicario: Day of the Soldado

The final weekend of the month has two wide releases, Sicario: Day of the Soldado and Uncle Drew, neither of which are expected to be major presences at the box office. Meanwhile, Sanju is opening “wide”. In this case, we think it means around 1,000 theaters, but not enough to be featured here. Meanwhile, this weekend last year, Despicable Me 3 opened with $72.43 million. That could be more than the combined total domestic box office of both wide releases this year. 2018 will lose in the year-over-year comparison, unless Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom can earn close to $70 million during its second weekend. That’s not out of the question.

Sicario: Day of the Soldado

Sicario: Day of the Soldado
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: Soldado.Movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: June 29th, 2018
MPAA Rating: R for strong violence, bloody images, and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Action
Keywords: Mexico, Drug Cartels, Human-Trafficking, Smuggler, Terrorism, Kidnap, Government Corruption
Directed By: Stefano Solima
Written By: Taylor Sheridan
Starring: Benicio del Toro, Josh Brolin
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $30 million to $40 million
Box Office Potential: $45 million

The original Sicario did better than expected, so I’m not surprised it is getting a sequel. Sicario: Day of the Soldado is going to open wide instead of expand wide, so it will start much faster, but I doubt it will have the same legs. It almost certainly won’t have as good reviews, because the original’s reviews were fantastic and will be tough to match. On the other hand, it is the bigger of the two films opening this week, so that should help its box office chances.

Uncle Drew

Uncle Drew
Trailer: Click to Play
Official Site: UncleDrew.Movie
Distributor: Lionsgate
Release Date: June 29th, 2018
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for suggestive material, language and brief nudity.
Source: Based on TV
Genre: Comedy
Keywords: Basketball, Road Trip, Out of Retirement, Ensemble, Gratuitous Cameos, Harlem, New York City
Directed By: Charles Stone III
Written By: Jay Longino
Starring: Kyrie Irving, Lil Rel Howery, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Reggie Miller, Nate Robinson, Erica Ash, Lisa Leslie, J.B. Smoove, Mike Epps, Tiffany Haddish, Nick Kroll
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $35 million

Uncle Drew is a basketball movie based on a series of commercials. How am I supposed to judge this movie’s box office chances? How many movies are based on commercials? The Ernest films and... That’s about it. Some say Space Jam is based on a commercial, but I think it is more accurate to say the commercial is based on the Looney Tunes. The buzz is also rather quiet, which makes predictions even harder. I’m giving the advantage to Sicario: Day of the Soldado, because it has box office track record to work with. That said, I could be wrong here.

Filed under: Monthly Preview, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom, Ocean’s 8, Action Point, Sicario: Day of the Soldado, Tag, Uncle Drew, Hereditary, Superfly, Upgrade, Adrift, Hotel Artemis, Sanju, Ernest, Ocean's Eleven, Jackass, Marvel Cinematic Universe, John Wick, Cate Blanchett, Sandra Bullock, Samuel L. Jackson, Holly Hunter, Brad Bird, Helena Bonham Carter, Josh Brolin, Gabriel Byrne, Toni Collette, Benicio del Toro, Mike Epps, Jodie Foster, Jeff Goldblum, Jon Hamm, Anne Hathaway, Ed Helms, Bryce Dallas Howard, Jake Johnson, Mike Judge, Johnny Knoxville, Reggie Miller, Craig T. Nelson, Shaquille O'Neal, Sarah Paulson, Chris Pratt, Zachary Quinto, Jeremy Renner, Gary Ross, J.B. Smoove, Sarah Vowell, Leigh Whannell, Shailene Woodley, Nick Kroll, Charlie Day, Mindy Kaling, Logan Marshall-Green, Baltasar Kormakur, Juan Antonio Bayona, Sam Claflin, Rihanna, Jenny Slate, Colin Trevorrow, Derek Connolly, Alex Tse, John Altschuler, Dave Krinsky, Dave Bautista, Drew Pearce, Alex Wolff, Derek Freda, Erica Ash, Trevor Jackson Campbell, Sterling K. Brown, Hannibal Buress, Charles Stone III, Mark G. Steilen, Sofia Boutella, Taylor Sheridan, Chris Webber, Stefano Solima, Director X, Tiffany Haddish, Awkwafina, Jay Longino, Aaron Kandell, Jordan Kandell, Brian Tyree Henry, Lil Rel Howery, Tim Kirkby, Jeff Tomsic, Olivia Milch, David Branson Smith, Kyrie Irving, Nate Robinson, Lisa Leslie, Huck Milner, Rob McKittrick, Ari Aster, Milly Shapiro, Tami Oldham, Susea McGearhart, Phillip Fenty