2019 Preview: July
July 1, 2019
June was a disaster, with no pleasant surprises for the entire month, and a boatload of disappointments. In fact, one could argue Aladdin was the biggest hit of the month, despite it opening in May. Toy Story 4 is the biggest hit released in June, but it still missed expectations by a huge margin. In fact, so many films missed expectations by huge margins I’m rethinking my predictions for July. I still think there will be monster hits and I seriously doubt Spider-Man: Far from Home and The Lion King will bomb, but I also don’t think they will reach the heights some of the tracking data suggests they will. The only other film that has a shot at $100 million is Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, but the overall box office is so weak that I’m no longer sure it will get there. Meanwhile, last July wasn’t as strong on top with just two films topping $200 million, Mission: Impossible - Fallout and Ant-Man and the Wasp, neither of which came close to $300 million. However, last year had a lot better depth and I think that could result in 2019 merely breaking even in the year-over-year competition.
The first weekend of the month has one of the two biggest hits of the month, Spider-Man: Far from Home. It’s the latest film in the M.C.U. and the follow-up to Homecoming. It will dominate the weekend, but I don’t think it will match its predecessor. Midsommar is the second film by writer / director Ari Aster. His previous film, Hereditary, wowed critics and was a huge hit for a low-budget horror movie. I fear this one won’t do as well at the box office, but should still be profitable. This weekend last year, Ant-Man and the Wasp opened with more than $75 million. There are some who think Far from Home will double that. I’m not one of them, but I still think it will give 2019 a solid win.
Ari Aster’s previous film, Hereditary, earned excellent reviews and became one of A24’s biggest hits at the box office. However, it also earned a D plus from CinemaScore, so clearly audiences were divided on the movie. I think Midsommar will have a very similar result. Its early reviews are on par with the previous film. It should come close at the box office. And I suspect it will earn a D plus or a C minus from CinemaScore. As long as the production budget isn’t too much higher than Hereditary’s $10 million price-tag, then it will be very profitable in the end.
Is a plot point a surprise twist if it is based on comic book lore going back for decades?
Anyhoo, Spider-Man: Far From Home is the follow-up to both Spider-Man: Homecoming and more importantly, the immediate follow-up to Avengers: Endgame, which could be the biggest movie of all time by the time this film hits theaters. Because Far From Home is the first film to deal with the aftermath of Endgame, it should get a boost at the box office. However, 2019 has been a real downer at the box office and I don’t think Homecoming will escape the black hole that the box office has become. I think it will still be a monster hit and it has close to a 50/50 chance of reaching $300 million domestically, but this is lower that I would have predicted, had the rest of summer met expectations.
The second weekend of July is much weaker than the first with no potential monster hit. In fact, the two wide releases coming out this week will likely earn less, combined and in total, than Spider-Man: Far From Home will earn during its opening weekend and it is very likely Far from Home will repeat on top of the chart. That said, Stuber does look like it has some potential to be a midlevel hit and have a profitable, if not spectacular, run at the box office. Meanwhile, Crawl is a low-budget horror film that won’t set the box office on fire, but should prove profitable down the line. This weekend last year, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation opened with $44 million, which is more than both new releases will earn this weekend. On the other hand, Far From Home should still top the chart with more than $44 million and could help 2019 win overall. It will be close.
This is a horror film set during a hurricane in which a father and daughter are trapped by rising waters and hunted by alligators. The film looks effective and it only cost $17 million to make, so it could earn more during its opening weekend that it cost to make. I don’t think it will quite get there, but it should be close.
Dave Bautista stars as a cop, who loses his drivers license due to his eyesight. Kumail Nanjiani stars as an Uber driver, who is roped into helping the cop. This action comedy is rated R and it is the first R-rated movie distributed by Disney in over half a decade. Unfortunately, if the early reviews are correct, this might be a problem, as some of the critics are saying it is too violent to work as a comedy, even an action comedy. Fortunately, it likely cost a very reasonable amount to make and it could earn more during its opening weekend then its production budget. If this happens, then it will have no trouble breaking even sooner rather than later.
This weekend is in some ways the slowest weekend of the month, as there is only one wide release, but it should also be the busiest weekend of the month, as that release is The Lion King. The film’s presales are better than Beauty and the Beast’s were; however, they said the same about Toy Story 4 and Incredibles 2 and look how that turned out. This weekend last year was a close race between The Equalizer 2 and Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again. The Lion King should top those two films combined giving 2019 the win.
The latest “live-action” Disney remake, although it isn’t actually live-action and is a photo-realistic digitally animated film with motion capture performances. This film will likely be the biggest hit of the month and one of the biggest hits of the summer. However, I don’t think it will be as big as I thought it would be a month ago. A month ago, I figured it would be close to a $500 million hit and maybe even top Beauty and the Beast at the box office. Now I don’t think so. That said, it should come close to $400 million and it will have no trouble breaking even before the home market, guaranteeing more of these are made in the future.
The month ends on a slow note with only one wide release, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, the latest from Quentin Tarantino. See You Soon is also coming out this week, but it is apparently coming out nationwide and not truly wide. This weekend last year, Mission: Impossible—Fallout opened with just over $60 million. Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood won’t open with that much, but The Lion King should lead as the holdover hopefully giving 2019 the win.
The latest from Quentin Tarantino. This film has been earning a lot of buzz, its early reviews are stellar, and many people think it will crack $100 million with ease. I was one of those people, at the beginning of June. The box office is so weak that I think every film is going to take a hit and miss original expectations. The film has no competition this weekend and there’s no direct competition opening the weeks around its debut, so it will have its target audience to itself. This could be enough to overcome the box office drought we are in, but I’m not convinced.
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Weekend of July 5th, 2019
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Midsommar
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Official Site: A24films.com/films/Midsommar
Distributor: A24
Release Date: July 3rd, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for disturbing ritualistic violence and grisly images, strong sexual content, graphic nudity, drug use and language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Sweden, Occult, Relationships Gone Wrong, Narcotics, Family Vacations
Directed By: Ari Aster
Written By: Ari Aster
Starring: Florence Pugh, Jack Reynor
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $10 million to $20 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million
Spider-Man: Far From Home
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Official Site: SpidermanFarFromHome.movie/
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: July 2nd, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG-13 for sci-fi action violence, some language and brief suggestive comments.
Source: Based on Comic/Graphic Novel
Genre: Action
Keywords:
Marvel Comics, Prague, Vacation, Surprise Twist, Venice, Italy, Sequels With Returning Stars, Berlin, Faked Death, Friendly Alien on Earth, False Identity, Gratuitous Cameos, Shapeshifter, Scene in End Credits
Directed By: Jon Watts
Written By: Chris McKenna, Erik Sommers, Stan Lee, Steve Ditko
Starring: Tom Holland
Production Budget: Reported at $160 million
Box Office Potential: $295 million
Weekend of July 12th, 2019
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Crawl
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Official Site: Facebook.com/TheCrawlMovie
Distributor: Paramount Pictures
Release Date: July 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for bloody creature violence, and brief language.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Horror
Keywords:
Extreme Weather, Florida, Animals Gone Bad, Trapped, Rescue
Directed By: Alexandre Aja
Written By: Michael Rasmussen, Shawn Rasmussen
Starring: Barry Pepper, Kaya Scodelario
Production Budget: Reported at $17 million
Box Office Potential: $40 million
Stuber
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Official Site: FoxMovies.com/Movies/Stuber
Distributor: 20th Century Fox
Release Date: July 12th, 2019
MPAA Rating: R for violence and language throughout, some sexual references and brief graphic nudity.
Source: Original Screenplay
Genre: Comedy
Keywords:
Police Detective, Taxi Driver, Car Accident, Car Chase, Shootout, Accidental Shooting
Directed By: Michael Dowse
Written By: Tripper Clancy
Starring: Kumail Nanjiani, Dave Bautista
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $15 million to $25 million
Box Office Potential: $55 million
Weekend of July 19th, 2019
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The Lion King
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Official Site: Movies.Disney.com/The-Lion-King-2019
Distributor: Walt Disney
Release Date: July 19th, 2019
MPAA Rating: PG for sequences of violence and peril, and some thematic elements.
Source: Remake
Genre: Adventure
Keywords:
Talking Animals, Animal Lead, Royalty, Accidental Death, Remake, Ensemble, Coming of Age, Revenge
Directed By: Jon Favreau
Written By: Jeff Nathanson, Brenda Chapman, Irene Mecchi, Jonathan Roberts, Linda Woolverton
Starring: Donald Glover, Beyoncé Knowles, James Earl Jones, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Billy Eichner, Seth Rogen, John Oliver, Keegan-Michael Key, John Kani, Alfre Woodard, Eric Andre, Florence Kasumba, JD McCrary, Shahadi Wright Joseph
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $180 million to $220 million
Box Office Potential: $395 million
Weekend of July 26th, 2019
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Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood
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Official Site: OnceUponATimeInHollywood.movie
Distributor: Sony Pictures
Release Date: July 26th, 2019
MPAA Rating: Not Yet Rated
Source: Based on Real Life Events
Genre: Thriller/Suspense
Keywords:
Los Angeles, 1960s, Hollywood, Ensemble, TV Industry, TV actor, Aspiring Actress / Actor, Stuntman, Inspired by a True Story, Addiction
Directed By: Quentin Tarantino
Written By: Quentin Tarantino
Starring: Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie
Production Budget: Unknown - Estimated at $50 million to $70 million
Box Office Potential: $95 million
Filed under: Monthly Preview, Spider-Man: Far From Home, The Lion King, Midsommar, Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood, Stuber, Crawl, See You Soon, Marvel Cinematic Universe