17th Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition

The Numbers Oscar Contest once again proved to be uncannily accurate at predicting Oscar winners this year, with no less than 21 of the top vote-getters in the contest going on to win the Oscar on the night. That includes all the major awards, including Best Picture 12 Years a Slave, and Best Animated Feature, Frozen. Those correct predictions bring our tallies to 14 out of 17 for Best Picture and 11 out of 13 for Best Animated Feature, for an average of over 80%.

The only categories where entrants in the contest missed the winner were Best Documentary Feature, where The Act of Killing lost out to 20 Feet From Stardom, and two of the short categories (always the hardest to predict): Best Animated Short and Best Live Action Short.

With the consensus of contest participants being so close to the actual winners, the winners had to score incredibly highly. In fact, five people scored 23 out of 24 Oscar winners correctly, meaning that we needed to go to the tie-breaker to determine the winners. These are the people who came out on top:

Grand Prize: Craig A. Horleman of Dover, Delaware
Runners-up Prize: Tala Rezai of Calabasas, California
Bonus Prize for Long-Term Players: Jimmy Orsag of Rochester, Pennsylvania
Special Mention for Top Foreign Player: Ryan Lim of Coquitlam, British Colombia, Canada

The Contest
- Full List of Top 200 Players in 2014
- All Time Top 200 Players

The Predictions
- Our full list of predicted winners in 2014
- Our predictions compared to the actual winners in 2014
- Complete vote tallies in each category

Our grand prize in the contest is every film nominated for Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. We will send the winner all nine films that are nominated as soon as they become available on the home market, with a choice of either the DVD or Blu-ray version.

Our second-placed finisher will receive the Best Picture winner and Best Animated Feature winner.

And finally, as an added incentive to everyone who enters regularly, the highest-scoring player from our All-Time Top 200 Players list will receive the Best Picture winner on their choice of DVD or Blu-ray.

Note: Players from foreign territories are welcome to submit predictions for the contest, but are not eligible for prizes. We will, however, make a special mention of our top-scoring foreign player.

Multiple Email Addresses: If you enter from multiple email addresses, only the votes you enter first will be eligible for prizes. Entries from other email addresses will not be eligible for prizes.

See our complete set of rules for more information.



Player Rankings

All-Time Top 200 Players

To see your personal results by year, please enter your email address below and hit enter:

Email Address:


Nominations

To help your research, here is a complete list of nominations and our Awards Season news articles.

Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Animated Feature Film
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
Kaze Tachinu

Directing
American Hustle - David O. Russell
Gravity - Alfonso Cuarón
Nebraska - Alexander Payne
12 Years a Slave - Steve Rodney McQueen
The Wolf of Wall Street - Martin Scorsese

Actress in a Leading Role
American Hustle - Amy Adams
Blue Jasmine - Cate Blanchett
Gravity - Sandra Bullock
Philomena - Judi Dench
August: Osage County - Meryl Streep

Actor in a Leading Role
American Hustle - Christian Bale
Nebraska - Bruce Dern
The Wolf of Wall Street - Leonardo DiCaprio
12 Years a Slave - Chiwetel Ejiofor
Dallas Buyers Club - Matthew McConaughey

Actress in a Supporting Role
Blue Jasmine - Sally Hawkins
American Hustle - Jennifer Lawrence
12 Years a Slave - Lupita Nyong'o
August: Osage County - Julia Roberts
Nebraska - June Squibb

Actor in a Supporting Role
Captain Phillips - Barkhad Abdi
American Hustle - Bradley Cooper
12 Years a Slave - Michael Fassbender
The Wolf of Wall Street - Jonah Hill
Dallas Buyers Club - Jared Leto

Best Writing: Original Screenplay
American Hustle - Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine - Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club - Craig Borten and Melissa Wallack
Her - Spike Jonze
Nebraska - Bob Nelson

Best Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Before Midnight - Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips - Billy Ray
Philomena - Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave - John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street - Terence Winter

Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
La grande bellezza
Jagten
L'image manquante
Omar

Best Documentary Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet From Stardom

Best Documentary Short Subject
Cavedigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

Best Animated Short Film
Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

Best Live Action Short Film
Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn't Me)
Avant que de tout perdue (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitaako Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

Achievement in Cinematography
Yi dai zong shi - Philippe Le Sourd
Gravity - Emmanuel Lubezki
Inside Llewyn Davis - Bruno Delbonnel
Nebraska - Phedon Papamichael
Prisoners - Roger Deakins

Achievement in Costume Design
American Hustle - Michael Wilkinson
Yi dai zong shi - William Chang Suk-Ping
The Great Gatsby - Catherine Martin
The Invisible Woman - Michael O'Connor
12 Years a Slave - Patricia Norris

Achievement in Film Editing
American Hustle - Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten
Captain Phillips - Christopher Rouse
Dallas Buyers Club - John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa
Gravity - Alfonso Cuaron and Mark Sanger
12 Years a Slave - Joe Walker

Original Score
The Book Thief - John Williams
Gravity - Steven Price
Her - William Butler and Owen Pallett
Philomena - Alexandre Desplat
Saving Mr. Banks - Thomas Newman

Original Song
Despicable Me 2 - Happy - Music and Lyric by Pharrell Williams
Frozen - Let It Go - Music and Lyric by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
Her - The Moon Song - Music by Karen O, Lyric by Karen O and Spike Jonze
Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - Ordinary Love - Music by Paul Hewson, Dave Evans, Adam Clayton and Larry Mullen. Lyric by Paul Hewson

Achievement in Production Design
American Hustle - Production Designer: Judy Becker. Set Decoration: Heather Loeffler.
Gravity - Production Designer: Andy Nicholson. Set Decoration: Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard.
The Great Gatsby - Production Designer: Catherine Martin. Set Decoration: Beverley Dunn.
Her - Production Designer: K.K. Barrett. Set Decoration: Gene Serdena.
12 Years a Slave - Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen. Set Decoration: Alice Baker.

Achievement in Sound Editing
All is Lost - Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns.
Captain Phillips - Oliver Tarney
Gravity - Glenn Freemantle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Brent Burge
Lone Survivor - Wylie Stateman

Achievement in Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips - Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mark Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro
Gravity - Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson
Inside Llewyn Davis - Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland
Lone Survivor - Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow

Achievement in Visual Effects
Gravity - Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, David Shirk and Neil Corbould
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug - Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds
Iron Man 3 - Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick
The Lone Ranger - Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier
Star Trek Into Darkness - Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling
Dallas Buyers Club - Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa - Stephen Prouty
The Lone Ranger - Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny



Awards News

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Ceremony Live Blog - And the Oscar goes to... 12 Years a Slave

March 2, 2014

The Oscars are being handed out this evening and as usual, we will be live-blogging the event. Here's the last look at the nominations with those chosen by our contest entrants as the likely winners in Bold. If I disagree with the consensus, they are in italics, and sharp-eyed readers will note there are no categories where that's true. Finally, if I am rooting for an underdog, they are underlined. There are only two categories where that is true. I want Chiwetel Ejiofor to win Best Lead Actor for his performance in 12 Years a Slave. I also want Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa to win for Best Hair and Make-up, because Dallas Buyers Club had a hair and make-up budget of $250. Yes it was effective, but the special effects make-up used in Bad Grandpa was just more difficult to pull off, even if the movie wasn't Oscar-bait. Regardless, I don't expect there to be many surprises at this year's awards. More...

2014 - Awards Season: Slave Top Winners at Spirit Awards

March 2, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

Independent Spirit Award handed out the hardware last night and the big winner was 12 Years a Slave, which picked up five of the seven awards it was nominated for. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Picture

February 27, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. We wrap up our look at the prestigious categories with the most prestigious of them all: Best Picture. Like last year, there were nine nominees. Unlike last year, none of them were completely out of left field. That's not to say they all have a legitimate shot at winning; there's definitely a favorite. However, politics could become an issue. I don't mean politics as in Democrat vs. Republican. I mean behind-the-scenes issues might play a bigger role than what is on the screen. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Director

February 27, 2014

Gravity poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we end this with the two most prestigious awards, starting with Best Director. You could generously call this a two-horse race, but in reality there is only one director expected to win. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay

February 25, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, ending with Best Adapted Screenplay. This race is about as uncompetitive as it can be with nearly all analysts agreeing on the likely winner. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay

February 25, 2014

Her poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we will look at the two writing categories, starting with Best Original Screenplay. This race is twice as competitive as the Best Adapted Screenplay, by that I mean it is a two-way race for the Oscar and not a runaway race. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actress

February 20, 2014

Blue Jasmine poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, finishing with Best Lead Actress. Unlike last year, this year the race is far more competitive in nearly all of the of the four acting categories this year. The person seen as the favorite has switched, more than once, and at the moment, I'm not sure who is going to win. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actor

February 20, 2014

Dallas Buyers Club poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. Like last year, this category is not truly competitive with one nominee way out ahead according to experts. And also like last year, I'm supporting an underdog. (In fact, I'm cheering for two underdogs.) More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor

February 18, 2014

Dallas Buyers Club poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. This is one of the least competitive races this year. One actor has consistently pulled in win after win and I would be shocked if Oscar night wasn't the same. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress

February 18, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we will look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress, which is again not a very competitive category this year. I'm not saying it is impossible for upset to happen here, but it is very, very unlikely. (On a side note, except for changing the links and using another poster, this is an exact cut and paste from last year. This category is slightly more competitive that last year, but not by enough to matter.) More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Documentary

February 15, 2014

The Act of Killing poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Documentary, which is probably the hardest category to predict, because some of the previous winners of major awards were not even nominated for an Oscar. When the nominations were this unpredictable, the winner could be any of the five films. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Animated Feature

February 15, 2014

Frozen poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Animated Feature Film, which looked like it would be competitive for most of the year, then Frozen came out and instantly became the favorite. Is it the favorite? Or is there a dark horse out there? More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Schedule

February 15, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Over the next two weeks, we will be looking at the ten most prestigious categories starting with...

More...

2014 Awards Season: WGA: A.I. and Pirates Told the Right Stories

February 1, 2014

Stories We Tell poster

WGAs handed out their awards on Saturday and depending on who you talk to, there were a couple of major upsets. There was certainly at least one upset, but the other awards are less surprising. More...

2014 Awards Season: DGA: Gravity adds Weight to its Oscar Chances

January 26, 2014

Gravity poster

The Directors Guild of America handed out the awards over the weekend, including two for theatrical releases. There were no true upsets, but it didn't go exactly as I anticipated it would go. More...

2014 Awards Season: PGA Produces a Rare Tie

January 20, 2014

Gravity poster

Producers Guild of America handed out their awards last night and while there were no real upsets, there was certainly a surprise for the top prize. More...

2014 Awards Season: SAG is a Buyer's Market

January 19, 2014

Dallas Buyers Club poster

SAG handed out their awards last night, and while there were not many surprises, there was one major upset, at least in my mind. Dallas Buyers Club led the way with two wins, making it the new Oscar favorite. More...

2014 Awards Season: PGA Buries the Lead

January 19, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

Producers Guild of America announce the winners tonight, but it seems I forgot to upload the story when they announced their nominations. In my defense, they announced them on January 2nd. You don't make an announcement on January 2nd, not unless you are trying to bury a story. As for the actual nominations, there are very few differences between this group and others, except when it comes to documentaries. Then again, that's been the norm this year. No one seems to agree on what the best documentaries were. More...

2014 Awards Season: Oscars Understand the Gravity of the Situation

January 16, 2014

Gravity poster

The Oscar nominations were announced this morning and there are some surprises mixed in with the predictable results. Gravity and American Hustle led the way with ten nominations each while 12 Years a Slave was right behind with nine. The fact that 12 Years a Slave wasn't the leader is the first of the surprises. More...

2014 Awards Season: DGA: Telling Stories about Documentaries

January 14, 2014

Stories We Tell poster

The Directors Guild of America finished its theatrical nominations yesterday with the Documentary category. I'm of two minds with the list of nominees. On the one hand, I feel like I should be surprised, because a number of documentaries thought to be Oscar favorites were left off the list. On the other hand, they've been left off the list a number of times. I think it is time to rethink who is and is not an Oscar favorite. More...

2014 Awards Season: Golden Globes: All American Night

January 13, 2014

American Hustle poster

Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out the Golden Globe awards last night, and there were a few surprises in the mix. American Hustle led the way with three wins, which isn't a real surprise, but I think many thought another film would lead with three or more wins. The only other film to earn more than one award was Dallas Buyers Club at just two. That might give you a hint at what the big surprise was. More...

2014 Awards Season: DGA Dips into Nominations

January 7, 2014

12 Years a Slave poster

The Directors Guild of America handed out their nominations for Feature Films today and will do the same for Documentaries next week. I have no idea why they do this, but it makes my job harder. Usually, I just wait till the Documentary nominations are announced, but this year I will do two stories. Next week will be mostly cut and paste job. More...

2014 Awards Season: WGA: Nominees Have Stories to Tell

January 5, 2014

Stories We Tell poster

WGAs announced their nominations this weekend and there were a couple of surprises to talk about. The top of that list is 12 Years a Slave, which was deemed ineligible because it wasn't written under WGA jurisdiction. This makes using the WGAs as an Oscar guide less reliable. On the other hand, several Oscar favorites showed up as well, including American Hustle, Nebraska, and others that have picked up major nominations this year. More...

2014 Awards Season: Slave Hustles to the Top

December 14, 2013

12 Years a Slave poster

Hollywood Foreign Press Association announced their Golden Globe nominations this week, and a clear picture is forming. 12 Years a Slave was again the recipient of the most nominations, but this time it was a tie, as it and American Hustle both grabbed seven nominations. If you look down the list of other multi-nominated films, you will find a number of familiar faces. More...

2014 Awards Season: SAG a Slave to Slave

December 14, 2013

12 Years a Slave poster

SAG handed out nominations over the week, and like with the Independent Spirit Awards, 12 Years a Slave led the way and earned four nominations. It wasn't the only film that was singled out. More...

2014 - Awards Season: Slave Earns Independence

November 28, 2013

12 Years a Slave poster

Independent Spirit Award started the Awards Season this week, handing out its nominations. 12 Years a Slave led the way with seven nominations, but it wasn't the only film to pick up multiple nominations. More...

Previous Results

Results from 2013:

- Top 200 Players in 2013
- All-Time Top 200 Players

- Analysis: Argo Predicted as Best Picture, Awards to Be Spread Far and Wide
- Votes in Each Category
- Predicted Winners in Each Category

Results from 2012:

- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2012
- Top Players of All Time

Results from 2011:

Lines in bold below indicate where our predictions where correct.

- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2011

Results from 2010:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies from The Numbers readers in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2010

Results from 2009:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies from The Numbers readers in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2009

Results from 2007:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Top 50 Players in 2007

Results from 2006:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Our announcement of the winner

Results from 2005:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.
- Our announcement of the winner

Results from 2004:

- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete Numbers vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.

Results from 2003:
- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.

Results from 2002:
- The actual Oscar winners.
- Complete vote tallies in each category.
- Our list of predicted winners.