The Numbers News - October 2016

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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Star Trek Beyond

October 31, 2016

Long time readers don’t need me to explain how much I love Star Trek in all of its incarnations. ... Okay, most of its incarnations. I haven’t been a fan of the first two installments in the reboot franchise. The third film, Star Trek Beyond, was the weakest of them at the box office. Is it also the weakest of the three in quality? Or was the third the charmed? More...

Life Trailer

October 31, 2016

Science fiction thriller starring Jake Gyllenhaal, Rebecca Ferguson and Ryan Reynolds opens May 26, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Madea Defeats Feeble Inferno

October 30, 2016

What was meant to be the weekend that the Fall Season started in earnest has turned into a damp squib, with Inferno not just failing to hit expectations, but not even topping the chart. With just $15 million expected this weekend, according to Sony’s Sunday morning projection, the franchise has shown a dismal downward trajectory at the domestic box office. The Da Vinci Code opened with $77 million in 2006; Angels & Demons debuted with $46 million in 2009; and now Inferno will earn less on its opening weekend than either of its predecessors made on their opening days.

The weak opening for Inferno follows a string of so-so results for films over the past couple of months. Perhaps the reality show that is our presidential election is dragging down theatrical business? More...

Friday Estimates: Inferno Generates Little Heat with $5.6 million

October 29, 2016

As expected, Inferno earned first place on Friday. However, it was unexpectedly weak at just $5.6 million. Even strong legs over the weekend would result in an opening of just over $15 million. Given its reviews and its B+ rating from CinemaScore, it won’t have strong legs. Just over $14 million seems more likely at this point. Although it is aimed at a more mature crowd, so that could help. Plus, it is performing much better internationally, so it could break even regardless of how much it makes domestically. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Inferno Sparks, but Doesn’t Catch Fire with $800,000

October 28, 2016

Inferno got off to a slow start with midnight previews earning just $800,000. That’s well below the other thrillers that have opened this month. In fact, it is on par with Deepwater Horizon’s previews at the end of September. That film earned just over $20 million, which isn’t a bad opening, but it isn’t a great opening for a film that cost $75 million to make. Things get worse for Inferno, as it has terrible reviews and it is part of a franchise, so its legs will likely be shorter. At the moment, it is on pace for a sub-$20 million debut; however, that might change when we see Friday’s estimates. Maybe it will bounce back, or maybe things will get worse. More...

Live by Night Trailer

October 28, 2016

Historical drama written and directed by, and starring Ben Affleck opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: These Films will Put a Spell on You

October 28, 2016

While Halloween doesn’t technically arrive until Monday, it is still sort of Halloween weekend. This explains why there’s not a lot of films on this week’s list. That doesn’t mean there is nothing worth checking out. The Love Witch is the best of this week’s offerings with 100% positive reviews, but it might have to wait till the home market to find an audience. More...

Theater Counts: Inferno in 3,576 This Weekend, and Maybe Two Films in 4,000 Next Weekend

October 27, 2016

Inferno gets the blockbuster Fall season started this weekend with a roll-out in 3,576 theaters. Although it’s not expected to set any records, it is the first film released since the Summer season that’s aimed firmly at all four demographic quadrants. Anything over $30 million this weekend would be a very welcome sign for the studios as they eye the next couple of months, particularly with two potential giants opening next weekend, both of which could debut in over 4,000 theaters… More...

Contest: Be Presidential

October 27, 2016

Doctor Strange is opening next weekend and it is clearly going to be the biggest hit of the weekend. However, it is not the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest, because the presidential election is finally almost over. So this week, in order to win, one has to predict the outcome of the presidential election. However, there are some caveats. We will be using the numbers as reported by the majority of news organizations (AP, New York Times, Fox News, CNN, etc.) at midnight Hawaiian time, which is 3 am Pacific and 6 am in New York City. Because of this, it is likely not all 538 electoral college votes will be called. In order to enter, you must provide four numbers: The number of electoral college votes Hillary Clinton has been awarded, the number of electoral college votes Donald Trump has been awarded, the number of electoral college votes all third party candidates have been awarded, and the number of electoral college votes that are still too close to call. Remember, all four numbers will add up to 538.

We compare each result to the actual result and the person with the lowest total error will win. The entry with with second lowest total error will come second, while a third winner will be chosen from all eligible entrants to win the third prize. Each winner will have their choice of a Frankenprize of either a full-season TV on DVD release, two movies, or three single-disc kids movies.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! We are keeping the Friday deadline, even though the voting doesn’t take place until Tuesday, because we don’t want to have two contests going at the same time. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Inferno Catch Fire over the Weekend?

October 27, 2016

There’s only one wide release this week, Inferno, and it should have no trouble earning first place. On the other hand, it won’t come close to matching the other two films in the Da Vinci Code franchise. Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween earned first place last week, but Madea movies tend to have short legs, so it could see a large drop-off this weekend. Or perhaps Halloween will help it thrive. This weekend last year, Halloween landed on a Saturday. It comes as no surprise that this was a disaster for the box office. The “best” new release, Burnt opened outside of the top five with just $5 million. The two and a half wide releases earned a combined $10 million last year. This year, there’s a small chance Inferno will earn $10 million during its opening day. There’s almost no chance 2016 won’t crush 2015 in the year-over-year comparison. More...

International Box Office: Jack Reaches for the Top earning $31.5 million

October 27, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opened in first place internationally with $31.5 million in 31 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it earned $5.56 million, including previews. The film’s second biggest market was in the U.K. where it earned $3.28 million in 519 theaters. This is lower than it opened here, given the relative size of the two markets, and much lower than the $5.75 million the first film opened with. Granted, that film opened in the U.K. right around Christmas, but overall Never Go Back is underperforming. This is really bad news for Paramount Pictures, as they’ve had a bad year with a number of high-profile, high-cost movies failing to break even and really can’t afford another misstep. More...

Contest: Within Reach: Winning Announcement

October 26, 2016

The winners of our Within Reach contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Moonlight Shines Bright With $100,519

October 25, 2016

Moonlight not only earned the best theater average of the weekend at $100,519 in four theaters, but it had the best average for any film that opened in 2016. It wasn’t the only film to do well this week, as Michael Moore in TrumpLand earned an average of $25,100 in two theaters. The Handmaiden pulled in an average of $18,426 in five theaters, while the re-release of Tanpopo earned $16,410 in one. We are still not done, as the overall number one film, Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, earned an average of $12,611. More...

Weekend Wrap-up: Madea Treats Herself to $28.50 Million

October 25, 2016

2016 finally has a real reason to celebrate this weekend. Not every film topped expectations, but the top did enough to overcome any weakness at the bottom. The biggest hit of the week was Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween, which beat expectations with $28.50 million. Jack Reacher: Never Go Back had to settle for second place with $22.87 million, which is still better than most were predicting. Ouija: Origin of Evil did well for a movie that cost just $9 million to make, but the less said about the other two new releases, the better. Overall, the box office rose 26% from last week, reaching $124 million. More importantly, the box office was 18% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 extended its lead over 2015 at $8.93 billion to $8.53 billion. Having a $400 million cushion this late in the year is good news, even with The Force Awakens looming in the future. More...

Home Market Releases for October 25th, 2016

October 24, 2016

It’s not a great week on the home market, as the biggest release of the week is the low-budget horror film, Lights Out. It is worth picking up on Blu-ray, but it is not worth the Pick of the Week title. The best film on this week’s list is Finding Dory, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand and it is worth waiting for the Blu-ray. That said, there’s no top-notch competition, so it is the Pick of the Week. More...

Rules Don’t Apply Trailer

October 24, 2016

Historical drama starring Warren Beatty and Lily Collins opens November 23 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Ghostbusters

October 23, 2016

Ghostbusters felt like a mistake from the very beginning. It is a remake of one the great comedies of all time. Then the first trailer came out and it was complete garbage. However, the international trailer was actually relatively good and the writer / director, Paul Feig, hadn’t made a bad movie since Unaccompanied Minors. Does this film live up to the original? If not, is it as good as the average Paul Feig movie? Or were the haters right on this one? More...

Weekend Estimates: Jack Reacher No Match for Madea

October 23, 2016

Hollywood has a habit of underestimating Tyler Perry. When Diary of a Mad Black Woman opened back in 2005, it was expected to struggle to make the top 10, and yet finished top of the chart with a $21.9 million weekend. More than eleven years later, he, or perhaps more accurately, Madea, continues to defy tracking models and rack up wins at the box office, with Boo! A Madea Halloween set to top this weekend’s chart with a projected $27.6 million. That’s nearly $5 million better than the debut of Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, which Paramount has coming in at $23 million. More...

Friday Estimates: Madea Scares the Competition with $9.4 million

October 22, 2016

Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween beat expectations on Friday to earn first place at the box office with with $9.4 million. I was a little more bullish than most, but even I didn’t think it would finish in first place on Friday. This is not quite as much as Madea’s Big Happy Family made on its opening day in 2011, but it is enough to put the film on pace for $25 million. Its reviews have risen to 33% positive, which isn’t bad for a Madea movie, while it earned an A from CinemaScore, so the fans are clearly happy with the film. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Handmade Limited Releases

October 21, 2016

Several films coming out this week are earning nearly unanimously positive reviews. This includes a few documentaries, but also a couple of narrative films that have a shot at some box office success. Moonlight is clearly aiming to win awards and it might do so. The Handmaiden should help grow Chan-wook Park’s fanbase here. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Jack Reaches $1.33 million during Previews

October 21, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back pulled in $1.33 million during previews, which is approximately inline with expectations. It is just a hair below the $1.35 million The Accountant earned last week. However, The Accountant also earned significantly better reviews than Never Go Back is earning and that will likely hurt its legs. That said, we predicted $21 million and that seems safe at the moment. More...

Contest: Burn It Down

October 20, 2016

There is only one film opening wide next week, Inferno, so obviously it is the only choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Inferno

We are back to the usual Halloween Trick or Treat prizes. After determining the three winners, two will be given horror movies, the “Treats”, while the third will be given a movie so bad it is scary it was made, the “Trick”.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be one of three winners. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will be the second of three winners. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the third of three winners.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Reacher Reach the Top?

October 20, 2016

It is a busy week as far as wide releases are concerned, although not as busy as we thought it would be at the beginning of the month, as I’m Not Ashamed has dropped to “select cities”. It still has a shot at the top ten, but a slim shot. The biggest release of the week is Jack Reacher: Never Go Back, as it is opening in an estimated 3,800 theaters. However, the buzz is weak and its reviews won’t help either. It will likely struggle to top $20 million. This gives Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween a shot at first place. The best new release of the week is Ouija: Origin of Evil. One would hope a horror film earning 80% positive reviews ten days before Halloween would at least have a shot at first place. We’ll see. Finally there’s Keeping Up with the Joneses. It’s bad and that’s all I need to say about that. There is good news. This weekend last year was a disaster. The biggest wide release was The Last Witch Hunter and it earned less than $11 million. The biggest film was The Martian, which earned under $16 million. We could have two films top $20 million, so 2016 should end the slump it has been in. More...

Theater Counts: Jack Reacher Opens in 3,780 Theaters

October 20, 2016

Jack Reacher: Never Go Back will open in 3,780 theaters this weekend, per Paramount’s Thursday morning announcement. That’s well ahead of their estimate of 3,500 this time last week, and points towards a solid opening for the film. Ouija: Origin of Evil is set for 3,168 locations, and will be the second-widest new release, according to what we’ve heard so far. Keeping Up with the Joneses will launch in 3,022 venues—about in line with what Masterminds debuted with a few weeks ago. Lionsgate has Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween coming out this weekend in 2,260, and have a shot at topping the chart with the film. More...

Gold Trailer

October 20, 2016

Drama based on real-life events, starring Matthew McConaughey opens Christmas Day ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Inferno Burns Bright with $49.75 million

October 19, 2016

Inferno started its international run in first place with $49.75 million on 12,293 screens in 64 markets. However, its individual markets are a bit of a mess. On the low end, the film only managed second place in the U.K. with $3.62 million on 591 screens, while it also had to settle for second place in Australia with $1.73 million on 266. Given the size of those two markets, this is like opening with just under $20 million here. On the other hand, the film earned first place in Italy ($5.07 million on 679 screens); Russia ($4.81 million on 2,032); and Germany ($4.09 million on 768). Those markets suggest a $40 million to $50 million opening here. Sadly, I think the lower end is more likely here. More...

Contest: Number Crunching: Winning Announcement

October 19, 2016

The winners of our Number Crunching contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Accountant opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Godzilla Stomps All Over the Theater Average Chart

October 19, 2016

Shin Godzilla had a number of special screenings over the weekend and its daily theater count ranged from 26 to 311. This made a huge mess of the theater average chart. I guess adding up the averages for the individual days would be the best, giving it an average of $5,271. However, even that doesn’t take into account the many theaters which only had limited showings on the single day they played the film. It’s a mess.

As for films that are a lot easier to deal with, Miss Hokusai topped that chart with an average of $12,262 in two theaters. This is another hit for GKIDS. Certain Women was right behind with an average of $12,180 in five theaters. Christine was playing in just one theater, earning $11,744. More...

Guardians of the Galaxy vol 2 Trailer

October 19, 2016

Sci-fi super hero adventure with Chris Pratt and Zoe Saldana opens May 5, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Home Market Releases for October 18th, 2016

October 18, 2016

It’s a bad week for the home market. There are only two first-run releases and neither of them are worth picking up. There’s not a lot of limited releases, TV on DVD releases, etc. to make up the gap. However, there is one truly great release, Trilogía de Guillermo del Toro from The Criterion Collection. The Blu-ray costs a lot, but it is a must have for fans of Guillermo Del Toro, especially his earlier Spanish-language work: Cronos, The Devil’s Backbone, and Pan’s Labyrinth. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Accountant Wins with $24.71 million, but 2016 Goes Further in Debt

October 18, 2016

The weekend box office was not good. The Accountant did beat expectations with $24.71 million, but the other wide releases missed expectations. As a result, the box office fell 6% from last weekend to $97 million. The weekend box office should never be below $100 million, outside of a few dead zones during the year. We’ve been below that mark too frequently this year. Worse still, this is 18% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a substantial lead over 2015 at $8.78 billion to $8.43 billion. However, we are nearing the $325 million mark where we have reason to panic. Remember, The Force Awakens earned $650 million during 2015 and Rogue One is only expected to earn half that much this year. We need to maintain a lead that large, or else 2016 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison in the end. More...

Allied Trailer

October 18, 2016

War-time thriller starring Brad Pitt and Marion Cotillard, directed by Robert Zemeckis opens November 23 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray Review: Aliens: 30th Anniversary

October 17, 2016

The original Alien movie can be described as a haunted house movie set in space, only with an alien instead of a supernatural entity attacking the cast. Aliens, on the other hand, loses nearly all of its tension and instead goes for an action-oriented approach. Does it work? Oh hell yeah. This is one of the best films from the 1980s and it is a must have. Is this 30th Anniversary Blu-ray worth picking up if you have the box set? That’s an interesting question. More...

A Monster Calls Trailer

October 17, 2016

Fantasy adventure opens December 23 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Assassin’s Creed Trailer

October 16, 2016

Sci-fi actioner starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard opens December 21 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: The Accountant Pencils in $24.71 Million Weekend

October 16, 2016

As expected, The Accountant will be the comfortable winner at the box office this weekend, with Warner Bros. projecting a $24.71 million debut for the thriller. That’s almost identical to the opening enjoyed by The Girl on the Train last weekend, and about average for Ben Affleck. His previous Fall outings all opened in somewhat the same vicinity: Gone Girl hit $37.5 million on opening weekend in 2014; Argo posted $19.5 million in 2012, ahead of a very fruitful box office run and eventual Best Picture award; The Town started out with $23.8 million in 2010. More...

Friday Estimates: The Accountant Steels Top Spot with $9.1 million

October 15, 2016

As expected, The Accountant earned first place at the box office on Friday. However, it did better than expected with a $9.075 million opening day. This is not quite as good as The Girl on the Train managed last week, but it could have a slightly better internal multiplier. Its reviews are mixed, but its CinemaScore is solid A, and that should help its legs. On the other hand, it is aimed at a more male audience, so that will likely hurt its legs a little. I think all of these factors balance out and it will make between $24 million and $25 million. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Oh No, You have to Go to Limited Releases!

October 14, 2016

There are a ton of limited releases earning great reviews this week. Perhaps too many of them. Some, like Shin Godzilla, have more popular appeal, but many of them, like Tower, are aiming for Oscar Glory. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Accountant's $1.35 million Adds Up

October 14, 2016

The Accountant got off to a healthy start with $1.35 million during Thursday night previews. This is more than both The Girl on the Train and Gone Girl managed. On the other hand, the film’s demographics are more male-dominated than those two films, and men are more likely to rush out to see a movie as early as possible. Its reviews have climbed up to 50% positive, so that won’t hurt its legs. We predicted $19 million and I’m fairly confident in that number. In fact, that might be on the low end of expectations going forward. More...

Contest: Within Reach

October 14, 2016

There are five films opening wide or semi-wide next week. Of those, only Jack Reacher: Never Go Back has a realistic shot at first place. Because of that, it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Jack Reacher: Never Go Back.

We are back to the usual Halloween Trick or Treat prizes. After determining the three winners, two will be given horror movies, the “Treats” while the third will be given a movie so bad it is scary it was made, the “Trick”.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Accountant be Counted On?

October 13, 2016

Three wide releases are coming out this week, which is one more than expected. The Accountant is clearly the biggest of the three, but its reviews are falling into the danger zone. Kevin Hart: What Now? is hoping to be the biggest stand-up comedy movie since Eddie Murphy’s Raw. Finally there’s Max Steel, which I didn’t think was going to open truly wide. Then again, its theater count is 2,034, so it is opening barely wide. This weekend last year, Goosebumps led the way with $23.62 million. I really thought The Accountant would top that, but I no longer think that will be likely. Worse still, there were five films that earned more than $10 million last year, but there will only be three of them this week. 2016’s slump will continue. More...

Theater Counts: The Accountant Leads New Releases

October 13, 2016

The Accountant will open in 3,332 theaters this weekend, and play in a few more theaters than last week’s winner, The Girl on the Train, which adds 97 locations and will play in 3,241. Kevin Hart: What Now? debuts in 2,568 venues, and Max Steel will start out with a modest 2,034 movie houses. More...

Dory Finds its way to $1 Billion

October 13, 2016

Last weekend, Finding Dory became the 27th film to earn $1 billion worldwide. In doing so, it created a lot of interesting tidbits worth talking about. But first, the history of $1 billion movies. More...

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story Trailer

October 13, 2016

Sci-fi adventure starring Felicity Jones opens December 16 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Peregrine Takes Down its Prey with $42.5 million

October 12, 2016

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children remained the top draw internationally with $42.5 million in 75 markets for totals of $94.0 million internationally and $145.2 million worldwide. The film took top spot in Russia with an opening weekend of $6.63 million on 1,185 screens. It also earned first place in France with $5.5 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it as pulled in $14.38 million, including $4.94 million on 899 screens this past weekend. More...

Contest: Demon Night: Winning Announcement

October 12, 2016

The winners of our Demon Night contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for The Girl on the Train opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Asura has Maddening Opening with $10,627

October 12, 2016

Asura: The City of Madness was the only film in the $10,000 club with an average of $10,627 in two theaters. Interestingly, Operation Mekong nearly rose to that milestone with an average of $9,511 in 17 theaters. More...

Home Market Releases for October 11th, 2016

October 11, 2016

Ghostbusters is the biggest release of the week and the best first run release. Combined with its fully-loaded Blu-ray (extended edition), it is a Pick of the Week contender. There’s not much competition. The main competition is a new Collector's Edition Blu-ray for The Thing, but this is at least a double-dip, which hurts its value. There are a couple of smaller releases as well. In the end it was a literal coin toss to decide the Pick of the Week and Ghostbusters won. More...

Underworld: Blood Wars Trailer

October 11, 2016

Fantasy action movie starring Kate Beckinsale opens January 6, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Only Girl isn’t a Train Wreck earning $24.54 million

October 11, 2016

Over the weekend was Columbus Day, or as it is known in more and more places, Indigenous People’s Day. It’s also Thanksgiving Day up here in Canada and it would make more sense for Americans to celebrate Canadian Thanksgiving than Columbus Day. Canadian Thanksgiving is where you give thanks to all the Canadians that make your life better. For example, both Ryan Gosling and Ryan Reynolds are Canadian. Anyhoo... The weekend box office numbers were not buoyed by the semi-holiday on Monday as none of the new releases matched expectations. The Girl on the Train led the way by a wide margin with $24.54 million compared to $15.14 million for Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children. Neither The Birth of a Nation nor Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life made it into the top five. The overall box office fell 9.5% from last weekend dropping to $103 million. That was 13% lower than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 has earned $8.64 billion, putting it 4.4% / $370 million ahead of 2015. A couple of more weeks like this and we will have reason to hit the panic button. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: The Neon Demon

October 10, 2016

When The Neon Demon was first screened at the Cannes Film Festival, it earned a lot of praise including a standing ovation... also people booed the film, while there have been plenty of reports of people walking out of the movie. You rarely see such a divergent opinion on a film and that made me very intrigued. Will I love the film? Will I hate it? Will I be one of the few people who were indifferent? More...

Weekend Estimates: Girl on Train Pulls Out of Station with $24.6 Million

October 9, 2016

New releases are battling headwinds to make progress at the box office this weekend. The current political frenzy, and the lingering effects of Hurricane Matthew have both dragged down ticket sales, but one film has come out relatively unscathed. Going into the weekend, we had The Girl on the Train pegged at a $27 million opening. In the event, it will start with $24.7 million, according to Universal’s Sunday morning projection. Things are less rosy for the other two debutants. More...

Friday Estimates: The Girl on the Train Schools the Competition with $9.35 million

October 8, 2016

Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life

As expected, The Girl on the Train led the way on Friday, albeit with a slightly smaller-than-expected figure of $9.35 million. This is a little more disappointing after the film’s previews, especially since films aimed at more mature women tend to have longer than average legs. We knew the reviews were not good and that wouldn’t help the film; however, the audience reaction was even worse, as the film earned a B- from CinemaScore. Anything below a B+ usually results in weak legs, and we are already seeing The Girl on the Train struggle in that regard. We originally predicted $27 million, but I think $26 million is now more likely. That’s not a bad opening weekend for a movie that cost $45 million to make, so Universal should still be happy. We also can’t be sure how much effect Hurricane Matthew had on the opening day, so business could yet pick up as the storm passes. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Looking for Timeless Limited Releases

October 7, 2016

It is both a great week for limited releases and a terrible one. While there are a number of fantastic films, like Under the Shadow for example, there are very few that have a legitimate shot at box office success. The usual reason for this is Video on Demand. Voyage of Time will likely be the biggest hit on this week’s list, but as an IMAX film, it will likely be in theaters for years. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Girl Won’t Be Gone after Earning $1.23 million

October 7, 2016

The Girl on the Train got off to a good start with $1.23 million during its previews last night. This is essentially the same as Gone Girl managed during its previews back in 2014. Gone Girl earned a reported $1.2 million, so it could have been between $1.15 million to $1.24 million. Unfortunately for The Girl on the Train, Gone Girl’s reviews were stellar, while this film is earning mixed reviews. It won’t have the same legs, but this start does mean $30 million is a lot more likely than it was on Thursday’s predictions. More...

Contest: Number Crunching

October 6, 2016

While Kevin Hart: What Now? is opening truly wide next week, which is a bit of a surprise, there’s little doubt that The Accountant will come out on top at the box office. As such, it is the choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for The Accountant.

This is the second week with The Neon Demon on Blu-ray as a prize. Don’t worry about entering both contests, because if someone does end up winning two of the same prize, they will be offered a replacement horror movie.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win either one of two “Treat” prizes, a copy of The Neon Demon on Blu-ray, or the “Trick” prize, a really bad movie that I’ve previously reviewed.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Theater Counts: Girl on the Train Arrives in 3,144 Theaters

October 6, 2016

As expected, The Girl on the Train will open in the most theaters this weekend, and is the film to beat at the box office. Universal is expecting the film to play in 3,144 theaters as of Thursday afternoon, although it might pick up a few more by the weekend. How many of those theaters will play the film all weekend is currently unknown though, since Hurricane Matthew is causing the temporary closure of many movie theaters in Florida, and may prompt further shutdowns in the next few days. How much that will affect ticket sales is something we will only know over time. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will Girl be the Rebirth of the Box Office?

October 6, 2016

October begins with a trio of wide releases, led by The Girl on the Train. The film’s reviews are mixed, which is not ideal, but also not fatal. The Birth of a Nation was looking to become an Awards Season player, but its reviews are not quite at that level. Finally there’s Middle School: The Worst Years of My Life. There are still no reviews and the buzz is as quiet as you can get for a wide release. This weekend last year, the only wide release was Pan and it bombed hard. However, The Martian remained on top with $37.01 million over the weekend. There’s almost no way The Girl on the Train will match that and last year had better depth as well. 2016’s slump will continue. More...

International Box Office: Peculiar Powers Its Way to the Top with $37.4 million

October 5, 2016

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children debuted in first place internationally with $37.4 million in 59 markets. The film’s biggest market was South Korea, where it earned second place with $4.43 million on 810 screens over the weekend for a total of $5.30 million. It also earned $4.43 million in 558 theaters in the U.K., which was also enough for second place in that market. The film had nearly identical results in both Mexico ($3.61 million) and in Australia ($3.07 million). The film cost $110 million to make, so it will need to make about $250 million internationally to have any real chance of breaking even in the short term. It is too soon to tell if that will happen. We will need to see more results from other markets, and more importantly, we will need to see the film’s legs as well. More...

Contest: Dark Urges: Winning Announcement

October 5, 2016

The winners of our Dark Urges contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Deepwater Horizon opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Denial Denies American Honey Top Spot with $18,746

October 5, 2016

Denial and American Honey were the only two films in the $10,000 club on the theater average chart this week. Denial earned first place with an average of $18,746 in five theaters, while American Honey was relatively close behind with an average of $17,801 in four. More...

Home Market Releases for October 4th, 2016

October 4, 2016

The theme for this week on the home market is “good, but not great”. There are a lot of releases, but almost none of them rise above merely good. This meant there were very few contenders for Pick of the Week and the only real choice was The Wailing. It earned perfect reviews, so even though the Blu-ray isn’t loaded with extras, it is still the best release of the week. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Miss Peregrine finds a Home at the top with $28.87 million

October 4, 2016

The overall box office was about as strong as expected, as Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children beat expectations by the same amount as Deepwater Horizon missed expectations. This helped the overall box office grow 10% from last weekend to $114 million. However, this is still 24% lower than this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 still has a lead over 2015, but that lead has shrunk to 4.9% or $390 million at $8.50 billion to $8.10 billion. If 2016’s lead falls below $325 million, then we will need to panic. Remember, last year ended with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, which earned $650 million before the end of the year. Rogue One isn’t expected to earn half of that, so 2016 is going to need a $325 million lead or it will need better depth in order to come out ahead. I would prefer the former. More...

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Trailer

October 3, 2016

Swashbuckling adventure opens May 26, 2017 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Satanic

October 2, 2016

It’s the first week in October, so there’s no better time to review a horror film. This is one of the reasons I choose to review Satanic. Also, the film stars Sarah Hyland from Modern Family and I like her in that show. On the other hand, it was a really small release. There were no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes when it came out; there wasn’t even a page on Wikipedia. So is this an undiscovered gem? More...

Friday Estimates: Peregrine Soars on Friday with $9.0 million

October 1, 2016

Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children took first place on Friday with $9.0 million. This is a little better than predicted and fine for a September release. The film’s reviews ticked up a couple of percentage points and now sit at 64% positive, while it earned a CinemaScore of B+. This is about on par with The Maze Runner. If the two films have the same internal multiplier, then Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children will open with about $26 million over the weekend. More...

2016 Preview: October

October 1, 2016

September is over and we should all be glad about that. Unless the final weekend brings a surprise $100 million hit or two, 2016’s lead over 2015 will shrink over the month. There were some bright spots, most notably Sully, which will be the biggest hit of the month. On the other hand, we had more outright bombs than even midlevel hits. Sadly, October isn’t much better. There are a couple of films that could be $100 million hits, but most of the films will struggle to become midlevel hits. Both Inferno and The Girl on the Train are aiming for $100 million. One of them might get there too. If both get there, then October will be seen as a success. By comparison, last October was led by The Martian; however, because of a misalignment in the calendar, The Martian’s opening weekend actually lines up with the final weekend in September. It had great legs, so that will help 2015 early in the month, but the rest of the month was terrible last year and I think 2016 will come out ahead as a result. More...

The Numbers News - October 2016

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