The Numbers News - October 2018

October 31, 2018

Suspiria led the theater average chart both over the weekend and for the year earning just over $180,000 in two theaters for an average of $92,019. This tops the previous average of $73,572 by Free Solo, although that movie was playing in four theaters. Up next was Can You Ever Forgive Me? with an average of $14,255 in 25 theaters during its second weekend of release. A couple of foreign-language films were next with Burning earning an average of $13,066 in two theaters and Border earning an average of $10,529 in seven. More...

International Box Office: Halloween Rises from the Dead and into First Place

October 31, 2018

Halloween rose from fifth to first with $26.0 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $46.0 million. The film’s biggest new market was Germany, where it earned first place with $3.41 million on 513 screens. On the other hand, it only managed fifth place in France with $2.37 million on 316 screens. Its Australian debut was in-between those two results at second place and $1.99 million on 264 screens. It’s best holdover was in Mexico, where it earned first place with $2.34 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $9.39 million. Like I mentioned last week, this film isn’t doing as well internationally as it is domestically, but it has done so well domestically that it will break even before taking its international numbers into consideration. More...

How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World Trailer

October 30, 2018

Animated adventure opens February 22 ... Full Movie Details.

As Hiccup fulfills his dream of creating a peaceful dragon utopia, Toothless’ discovery of an untamed, elusive mate draws the Night Fury away. When danger mounts at home and Hiccup’s reign as village chief is tested, both dragon and rider must make impossible decisions to save their kind. More...

Home Market Releases for October 30th, 2018

October 30, 2018

It’s another slow week on the home market, with not a lot of big releases and not a lot of Pick of the Week contenders. There were several that came close, including 2001: A Space Odyssey, Never Goin’ Back, The Princess Bride, etc. In the end, Mandy on Blu-ray was the only true contender for that title. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Halloween Repeats on Top, New Releases are Barely Seen

October 30, 2018

The month of October ends on a soft note with only one of the new releases we talked about in our prediction reached the top ten over the weekend. And even that film, Hunter Killer, didn’t quite reach our low expectations. Fortunately, Halloween came within a rounding error of predictions with $31.42 million and the overall box office wasn’t too bad at $104 million. Granted, this is 37% lower than last weekend, but this is to be expected for Halloween weekend. More importantly, the overall box office was 37% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 has pulled in $9.55 billion, putting it ahead of 2017’s running tally of $8.45 billion. At first glance, this looks like 2018 has a $1 billion lead, but it was actually $999 million, according to our numbers. It will certainly get there by the end of business on Monday. This is a fantastic result, but a short-lived one, as November and December won’t be able to maintain this lead. More...

Vox Lux Trailer

October 29, 2018

Musical drama starring Natalie Portman opens December 7 ... Full Movie Details.

In 1999, teenage Celeste survives a violent tragedy. After singing at a memorial service, Celeste transforms into a burgeoning pop star with the help of her songwriter sister and talent manager. Celeste’s meteoric rise to fame dovetails with a personal and national loss of innocence, consequently elevating the young powerhouse to a new kind of celebrity: American icon, secular deity, global superstar. By 2017, adult Celeste is mounting a comeback after a scandalous incident almost derailed her career. Touring in support of her sixth album, a compendium of sci-fi anthems entitled, “Vox Lux,” the indomitable, foul-mouthed pop savior must overcome her personal and familial struggles to navigate motherhood, madness and monolithic fame. More...

Featured DVD Review: Never Goin’ Back

October 29, 2018

Never Goin’ Back opened in limited release with good reviews, but not great reviews. It wasn’t able to find an audience in theaters, but now that it is on the home market, is it worth checking out? Is it worth picking up? More...

Weekend Estimates: Halloween Holds on Strong, but Susparia Shines

October 28, 2018

Halloween’s weekend estimates are matching our predictions perfectly with $32.05 million. If this number holds, it will have $126.70 million after just ten days of release. Internationally, it is estimated to earn $25.6 million in 62 markets for a two-week total of $45.6 million. It won’t match its domestic run internationally, but it doesn’t have to do be a financial success. In fact, since the film only cost $10 million to make, if it had just $45.6 million worldwide at this point, it would still have a chance of breaking even, eventually. More...

Friday Estimates: Halloween Laps Competition with $10 million on Friday

October 27, 2018

As expected, Halloween earned first place on Friday. It was a little weaker than expected at $10.02 million and Universal’s estimate for the weekend is $30.05 million, compared to our prediction of $33 million. A $30 million sophomore stint is still fantastic for a film that cost just $10 million to make; in fact, it cracked $100 million domestically on Friday, which is more than enough to pay for its combined production / advertising budgets. More...

Cold Pursuit Trailer

October 26, 2018

Thriller starring Liam Neeson opens February 8 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases are Leaving us in Suspense

October 26, 2018

It is a little difficult to figure out which limited release has the best shot at box office success. Suspiria has the loudest buzz, but its reviews are only good and not great. Shirkers’ reviews are great, but it is playing on Netflix, so it likely won’t go anywhere in theaters. Life & Nothing More, Border, Burning, and others could pick up the slack, but none jump out as guaranteed hits. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Hunter doesn’t have a Killer Opening

October 26, 2018

Hunter Killer debuted with $420,000 during its previews, which is more or less what we expected it would make. Perhaps just over $8 million is more likely now. It depends on how much its reviews affect its legs. As always, we will have a better idea when Friday’s estimates come out. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Halloween Boost Horror Holdovers?

October 26, 2018

There’s only one true wide release of the weekend, Hunter Killer, which isn’t expected to make much of an impact at the box office. (Indivisible and Johnny English Strikes Again are both opening in several hundred theaters and one of them could reach the top ten, but probably not both.) This means Halloween will have no trouble repeating on top, while Venom could hold on better than most, thanks to Halloween being less than a week away. This weekend last year, Jigsaw opened in first place with $16.64 million, while Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than those two did giving 2018 yet another win. More...

Theater Averages: Mid90s Kickflips to the Top

October 25, 2018

Mid90s had a much better than expected start earning an average of $64,539 in four theaters. This is the third highest theater average of 2018 behind just Free Solo ($73,572 in four theaters) and Eighth Grade ($65,949 also in four theaters). On the other hand, its reviews are good, but not great, so it could struggle to expand wide. That said, I would be absolutely shocked if the film didn’t earn some measure of mainstream success after this start. Can You Ever Forgive Me? opened in second place with an average of $32,302 in five theaters. Its reviews are award-worthy, so it should have very long legs and if it actually picks up some major award nominations, it could expand truly wide. Wildlife also rode amazing reviews to an average of $26,147 in four theaters. The overall box office leader, Halloween, was next with an average of $19,405. The Price of Everything opened with $16,817 in one theater, while the re-release of Wings of Desire managed $12,885, also in one theater. More...

Bohemian Rhapsody Final Trailer

October 25, 2018

Drama starring Rami Malek opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details.

A celebration of Queen, their music and their lead singer Freddie Mercury, who defied stereotypes and shattered convention to become one of the most beloved entertainers on the planet. The film traces the meteoric rise of the band through their iconic songs and revolutionary sound, their near-implosion as Mercury’s lifestyle spirals out of control, and their triumphant reunion on the eve of Live Aid, where Mercury, facing a life-threatening illness, leads the band in one of the greatest performances in the history of rock music. In the process, cementing the legacy of a band that were always more like a family, and who continue to inspire outsiders, dreamers and music lovers to this day. More...

International Box Office: Venom Claws Closer to Half a Billion Dollars

October 25, 2018

Venom earned its fourth first place finish on the international chart with $33.17 million on 14,966 screens in 83 markets for totals of $291.61 million internationally and $462.68 million worldwide. The film had no major market openings this past weekend, but it has yet to open in Japan and China, so it has a shot at $400 million internationally and $600 million worldwide, which would be more than enough to become Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018. More...

Home Market Releases for October 23rd, 2018

October 24, 2018

It is a slow week on the home market, as Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is the only first run release. There are several horror films that are selling well enough to be worth talking about, but that is all. As far as the best of the best are concerned, the two I’m most interested in and I put in requests for screeners for both are BlacKkKlansman and Incredibles 2, but they are only coming out on VOD this week. I don’t like handing out Pick of the Week titles to VOD releases, so the real race is between The Americans: The Complete Final Season and Made In Abyss: Season One. Both are worth picking up, but I think there will be a full series Megaset for The Americans, so I’m giving the title to Made In Abyss. More...

The Prodigy Trailer

October 23, 2018

Horror movie starring Taylor Schilling and Jackson Robert Scott opens February 8, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray Review: Dragnet

October 23, 2018

Dragnet is a continuation of the 1950s / 1960s police procedural TV series of the same name. It isn’t exactly a remake, as Harry Morgan reprises his role as Bill Gannon, but it is certainly a more comedic take on the show. I remember loving this movie as a kid, but I also haven’t seen it since I was a kid. Has it aged well? Or am I going to be forced to use the “I was young.” excuse? More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Halloween Fastest Horror Opening of 2018, Won’t have a Quiet Run

October 23, 2018

Halloween opened on the high end of expectations earning $76.22 million during its opening weekend. This tops The Nun’s previous best opening for a horror film released this year of $53.81 million. Both The Hate U Give and The Old Man and the Gun expanded into the top ten, which also helped the overall box office a little but. Speaking of the overall box office, it rose 21% from last weekend, hitting $165 million. More impressively, this was 72% higher than the same weekend last year. Normally, a year-over-year change this dramatic only happens when there is a misalignment in holidays, but this has been happening a lot this year. Year-to-date, 2018’s lead over 2017 climbed to $960 million or 11.3% at $9.39 billion to $8.44 billion. There’s no way this lead will remain this high at the end of the year, but it would take a serious collapse for 2018 to not finish with a higher total box office than 2017. More...

The Kid Who Would Be King Trailer

October 22, 2018

Fantasy adventure starring Louis Serkis opens January 25, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Estimates: Halloween Scores Franchise-Best Start, Second-Best October Debut

October 21, 2018

According to Universal’s numbers, Halloween is going to debut with $77.75 million over the weekend. This is by far the biggest opening in the franchise; in fact, it is the biggest worldwide hit in the franchise after just three days at the domestic box office. Its reviews are 80% positive, while it earned a B plus from CinemaScore, and both of those suggest better-than-average legs, for a horror film. Plus, with actual Halloween just 10 days away, it could hold better next weekend than it otherwise would. I don’t expect it to get to $200 million domestically, but it will become Universal’s second-biggest hit of 2018, at least so far. Internationally, the film looks to pull in $14.3 million in 23 markets. It wasn’t able to match its opening here in any major market, which isn’t surprising given its start here. It will come the closest in Mexico, as it is estimated to make $4.99 million over the weekend. It only managed second place in the U.K. with a projected $3.61 million over the weekend, which is equivalent to a $20 million opening here. More...

Friday Estimates: Halloween Closing in on Venom’s October Record

October 20, 2018

Before the weekend began, people were asking if Halloween would top The Nun for biggest opening weekend for a horror film released this year. After Friday, no one is asking that question anymore, because the answer is obviously going to be yes. The film pulled in $33.34 million during its opening day, meaning it is within striking distance of Venom’s record for biggest October weekend. Venom earned $32.50 million during its opening day. Additionally, Halloween has 81% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, which is great for a horror film. On the other hand, horror films do tend to have shorter legs than comic book movies, so Halloween is essentially a coin-toss to break the record. Universal is going with $80.3 million, so we likely won’t know the answer until Monday when the final numbers show up. More...

The Aftermath Trailer

October 19, 2018

Historical drama starring Keira Knightley and Alexander Skarsgård opens April 26, 2019 ... Full Movie Details.

Rachael Morgan arrives in the ruins of Hamburg in the bitter winter, to be reunited with her husband Lewis, a British colonel charged with rebuilding the shattered city. But as they set off for their new home, Rachael is stunned to discover that Lewis has made an unexpected decision: They will be sharing the grand house with its previous owners, a German widower and his troubled daughter. In this charged atmosphere, enmity and grief give way to passion and betrayal. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Halloween tops The Nun, could Overtake Venom

October 19, 2018

In order to match predictions, Halloween needed to at least match The Nun’s previews, while I would have preferred it top that film’s number by 10%. That means it needed to earn $5.4 million to $6.0 million for me to be satisfied it would match our $63 million prediction. It earned $7.7 million last night. Combine this with its reviews and it could break the October weekend record, set earlier this month by Venom, with just over $80 million, but $75 million is more likely. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Missing these Limited Releases is Unforgivable

October 19, 2018

It’s an excellent week for limited releases with a trio of amazing films that have great star power as well. Can You Ever Forgive Me?, What They Had, and Wildlife all have a shot at box office success. Not to mention several documentaries, like On Her Shoulders, Sharkwater Extinction, Transformer, that could do well in limited release. More...

Weekend Prediction: Will Halloween Scare The Nun Out of First Place?

October 18, 2018

Right now, The Nun has the best opening for a horror film released this year with $53.81 million during its opening weekend. Most people think Halloween will top this, while some think it will crush this number. In fact, high end predictions have this film earning more than the top ten earned this weekend last year. It would need more than $75 million to get there, albeit not that much more to do so. That’s still asking a lot. The only other “new release” of the week is The Hate U Give, which is indeed expanding truly wide. However, it is unlikely to hit the top five. This weekend last year, Tyler Perry’s Boo 2 earned first place with $21.23 million, while Geostorm was the only other film to earn more than $10 million. Halloween should earn more than $21.23 million during its opening day and there could be as many as five films earning $10 million or more. Even if there is as few as three $10 million films, 2018 will still easily top last year’s box office number giving the year yet another win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Destroyer Trailer

October 18, 2018

Thriller starring Nicole Kidman opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Theater Averages: Beautiful Start

October 17, 2018

Beautiful Boy had the best theater average of the weekend and the fourth best average for a limited release this year at $54,722 in four theaters. However, its reviews are well below what limited releases normally need to thrive, so I’m worried about its legs going forward. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Charm City, which opened with $10,511 in its lone theater. More...

International Box Office: Venom Secures Win, Closes in on Summer Vacation

October 17, 2018

Venom remained the top draw internationally earning $70.89 million on 20,248 screens in 83 markets for totals of $236.49 million internationally and $378.60 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was France, where it opened in first place with $6.65 million on 703 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $7.04 million. It also opened in first place in Thailand with $2.14 million on 365 screens and in Vietnam with $1.05 million on 501 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $2.22 million. Its biggest market overall is South Korea, where it has amassed $25.41 million, including $4.38 million on 1,011 screens this past weekend. At this pace, the film will soon overtake Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation, becoming Sony’s biggest hit released in 2018. More...

Home Market Releases for October 16th, 2018

October 16, 2018

Ant-Man and the Wasp is coming out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack this week and it is scaring away most of the competition. Fortunately, it is also an amazing movie and a Contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, as both Mamoru Hosoda Movie Collection (Blu-ray) and Whitney (DVD or Blu-ray) were in the race. However, in the end, I went with Ant-Man and the Wasp. More...

The Possession of Hannah Grace Trailer

October 16, 2018

Horror movie starring Kirby Johnson and Shay Mitchell opens November 30 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Beats Up Expectations, and New Releases

October 16, 2018

Last weekend, Venom and A Star is Born opened better than predicted by a large margin and they even held on better than expected this weekend. Unfortunately, none of the new releases matched predictions and that hurt the overall box office. The total box office was down 25% from last weekend at $136 million. More importantly, this is 36% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 is ahead of 2017 at $9.18 billion to $8.31 billion, which is a $880 million or 10.5% lead. A double-digit lead at this point of the year is stunning and while it very likely won’t last, it would take an complete collapse for the lead to evaporate by the end of the year. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Ant-Man and the Wasp

October 15, 2018

Ant-Man and the Wasp is the second film in the Ant-Man franchise and the 20th film in the MCU. I liked the first film more than the average critic, because I’m a huge fan of heist movies. This film won’t have the same heist angle, so will it not work with me as much? More...

A Dog’s Way Home Trailer

October 15, 2018

Canine drama starring Barry Watson and Ashley Judd opens January 11, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: BuyBust

October 14, 2018

BuyBust opened in limited release earning reviews that were not good enough for limited release and it struggled in theaters. That said, it did better than most similar movies perform and now that it out on the home market, is it worth checking out? Is it worth picking up? More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Down a Dark Hall

October 14, 2018

Down a Dark Hall opened in limited release and VOD in August. Its early reviews were good, but its current Tomatometer Score is exactly 50% positive. Is it worth a rental? Is there enough replay value to be worth picking up? More...

Weekend Estimates: Venom Flexes it Muscles and Keeps the Competition Down

October 14, 2018

Last weekend, the new releases topped expectations by a significant degree. It appears I got caught up in that enthusiasm, because the three wide releases this weekend all missed expectations. Fortunately, the holdovers helped compensate. Venom is projected to fall just 56% to $35.6 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $142.6 million. This is a stunningly strong hold, given its reviews, its B plus from CinemaScore, and historical averages for comic book films. Internationally, it pulled in $69.7 million and globally it already has $378.1 million. The film cost $100 million or $116 million, depending on how you look at things. It’s $116 million on the screen, but it cost Sony $100 million after tax breaks. Depending on how much the film cost to advertise and how much Sony’s share of the box office is, the film might have already broken even. It will certainly break even by this time next week. More...

Aladdin Teaser Trailer

October 13, 2018

Fairytale adventure starring Mena Massound opens May 24, 2019 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Friday Estimates: New Releases Won’t Finish First, Man

October 13, 2018

All of the new releases missed expectations on Friday. This combined with better than expected holds for the holdovers meant there won’t be any new challengers for first place. That said, there will be a relatively close race for first place between Venom and A Star is Born. Venom fell 70% compared to its opening Friday earning $9.79 million. This is enough to put it on pace for $32 million during its sophomore stint, which is on the very high end of expectations. More...

Thursday Night Previews: First Man Earns $1.1 million during First Night

October 12, 2018

First Man led the way with $1.1 million during its previews last night. There are not many films we can use as comparisons. The Martian cost a whole lot more and had much more buzz, so it is not surprising it did better with $2.5 million in its previews. If the two films have the same legs, then First Man will open with about $24 million, giving it a solid third place. Its reviews slipped just below the 90% positive level, but that’s hardly reason to panic about its box office chances. I think my prediction might have been a little too bullish, but we will have to wait till tomorrow to have a clearer picture. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Limited Releases Have Something to Teach Us

October 12, 2018

It’s an odd week for limited releases and I’m not sure any of them will have a real shot at box office success. There are some, like After Everything, that are earning excellent reviews, but are playing on VOD. There are others, like Beautiful Boy, that were earning loud pre-release buzz, but failed to live up to the hype with critics. I think The Kindergarten Teacher might have a shot at box office success, but I’m also hoping Liyana beats expectations. More...

Ben is Back Trailer

October 11, 2018

Drama starring Lucas Hedges and Julia Roberts opens December 7 ... Full Movie Details.

19 year-old Ben Burns unexpectedly returns home to his family’s suburban home on Christmas Eve morning. Ben’s mother, Holly, is relieved and welcoming but wary of her son staying clean. Over a turbulent 24 hours, new truths are revealed, and a mother’s undying love for her son is tested as she does everything in her power to keep him safe. More...

Weekend Predictions: Will First Man Live Up to Its Name?

October 11, 2018

There are three wide releases coming out this week. First Man is the biggest release and has the best reviews with 90% positive reviews. Goosebumps 2: Haunted Halloween’s reviews are much, much worse, but it should still do relatively well at the box office. It is a horror movie for kids opening just before Halloween. The final wide release of the week is Bad Times at the El Royale, which is earning really good reviews, but the buzz is rather quiet. These films will have to compete with Venom and A Star is Born, both of which are expected to do big business during their second weekend of release. This weekend last year, Happy Death Day opened with $26.04 million; however, it was the only film that earned more than $20 million over the weekend. This year, we could have as many as four films earn more than $20 million. More...

Theater Averages: Venom is the Toast of the Town

October 10, 2018

The overall box office leader, Venom, was also the top film on the theater average chart earning an average of $18,884. Studio 54 was yet another documentary success story opening with $14,909 in its lone theater. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Free Solo with an average of $13,726 in 41 theaters and by the end of Sunday, it was nearly at $1 million. The Hate U Give was close behind with an average of $13,336 in 36 theaters. Finally, A Star is Born was the last film in the $10,000 club, earning an average of $12,373 in wide release. More...

International Box Office: Venom Spreads Worldwide

October 9, 2018

Venom dominated the international chart with $127.15 million on 22,319 screens in 76 markets. Both Russia and South Korea could claim top spot for the film. In the former, it earned $14.39 million in 2,672 screens over the weekend. In the latter, it earned $10.63 million on 1,295 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $16.48 million. The film debuted in Mexico with $10.07 million on 3,465 screens. It also cracked the $10 million mark in the U.K., if you include previews, as it earned $7.42 million on 867 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $10.50 million. The film has yet to open in France, Japan, and China, although I’m not convinced it will get passed Chinese censors. More...

Home Market Releases for October 9th, 2018

October 9, 2018

It’s not a bad week on the home market. The two biggest releases, Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation and Skyscraper, are both worth checking out, but not close to being Pick of the Week contenders. As for the best of the best, Eighth Grade is really the only choice, while Thelma Todd & Zasu Pitts: The Hal Roach Collection was the runner up. Killing Eve: Season One and Recovery of an MMO Junkie: The Complete Series could have been contenders, if they had significant extras. More...

Mortal Engines Trailer 2

October 9, 2018

Sci-fi action movie starring Hera Hilmar and Robert Sheehan opens December 14 ... Full Movie Details.

Thousands of years after civilization was destroyed by a cataclysmic event, humankind has adapted and a new way of living has evolved. Gigantic moving cities now roam the Earth, ruthlessly preying upon smaller traction towns. Tom Natsworthy—who hails from a Lower Tier of the great traction city of London—finds himself fighting for his own survival after he encounters the dangerous fugitive Hester Shaw. Two opposites, whose paths should never have crossed, forge an unlikely alliance that is destined to change the course of the future. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Venom Invades Record Books with $80.26 million

October 9, 2018

Venom topped the high end of expectations over the weekend with $80.26 million, breaking several October records. A Star is Born also topped expectations with $44.26 million during its opening weekend and should have very long legs. Overall, the box office pulled in $177 million, which is 68% more than last weekend and this weekend last year. That’s a strange coincidence. Year-to-date, 2018 was able to stretch its lead over 2017, which now sits at 9.9% or $810 billion at $8.98 billion to $8.16 billion. I was worried we might be down to a $500 million lead at this point, but 2018 continues to impress. More...

What They Had Trailer

October 8, 2018

Drama starring Hilary Swank, Michael Shannon, Robert Forster and Blythe Danner opens October 19 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Eighth Grade

October 7, 2018

Eighth Grade opened with stellar reviews and I even heard Oscar talk for its star, Elsie Fisher. This does have the negative side effect of increasing expectations. Can it live up to those expectations? And is the DVD / Blu-ray worth picking up? More...

Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Skyscraper

October 7, 2018

Skyscraper didn’t live up to expectations at the box office. It didn’t really bomb and might still break even eventually, but it wasn’t a $100 million hit like a lot of people thought it would become. Were audiences smart to stay away? Is it worth checking out? Are there enough extras to lift it to the purchase level? More...

Weekend Estimates: Venom Punches its Way to the Top with $80 million

October 7, 2018

If studio estimates are correct, then Venom has crushed expectations over the weekend earning $80.03 million. This easily destroys the October weekend record, previously held by Gravity. The film is also projected to pull in $125.2 million on 20,800 screens in 58 markets. On the other hand, the film earned 32% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore, so I don’t expect good legs going forward. That said, Sony’s share of the film’s global debut is likely very close to the film’s $100 million production budget, so unless the advertising budget was unreasonable, even really short legs won’t prevent the movie from earning a profit. More...

Friday Estimates: Venom Shines on Opening Day

October 6, 2018

Despite earning terrible reviews, Venom was able to destroy the record for biggest October day with $32.75 million on Friday, topping the previous record holder Paranormal Activity 3 by a significant margin. Not only will the film blow past $70 million over the weekend, it could come close to $80 million. On the down side, as previously mentioned, its reviews are terrible, while it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore, so it won’t have good legs going forward. That said, the film reportedly cost $100 million to make ($116 million on the screen, $100 million after tax breaks) so even tragically short legs won’t stop the film from breaking even. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Venom Rolls Over the Competition

October 5, 2018

Venom has already broken records earning $10 million during its previews. This tops the previous record of $8 million held by Paranormal Activity 3 back in 2011. If the film has the same legs, then Venmon will earn a little more than $65 million over the weekend. However, there are some reasons to suspect this film won’t have the same legs. Firstly, its reviews are substantially worse than Paranormal Activity 3’s reviews were. Secondly, 2011 was a long time ago and previews were not as established as they are now, so getting to $8 million then is a little more impressive than getting to $10 million now. Sony is still sticking with a $55 million weekend debut, which is very likely just them being cautious. Our $57 million prediction does seem a little low now, with $60 million to $65 million being more likely. More...

Glass Trailer

October 5, 2018

M. Night Shyamalan thriller starring Bruce Willis, James McAvoy and Samuel L. Jackson opens January 18 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Don’t Hate Limited Releases

October 5, 2018

We are getting really close to Awards Season and there are some top-notch films on this week’s list that could pick up some major nominations. This includes The Hate U Give, which is the biggest release of the week. However, I’m also interested in The Great Buster, Private Life, Trouble, and Heavy Trip. More...

Weekend Predictions: Can Venom Take Down October’s Record?

October 4, 2018

The first weekend of October could see records fall, as most have Venom opening with between $60 million and $70 million. The movie with the line “Turd in the wind” in its trailer is expected to open better than Gravity did. On the other hand, A Star is Born is expected to open in second place, but have much, much longer legs and I believe it will be the bigger hit in the end. Both Night School and Smallfoot will earn more than $10 million over the weekend, which will help the overall box office performance. This weekend last year, Blade Runner 2049 opened with $32.75 million, while only one other film earned more than $10 million. Even on the low end, Venom will earn more than those two films combined. On the high end, it could match last year’s top five by itself. More...

Tiger Trailer

October 4, 2018

Real-life drama starring Prem Singh, Mickey Rourke and Janel Parrish opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Theater Averages: Free Doesn’t Go Solo

October 3, 2018

Free Solo didn’t quite live up to weekend estimates, but it still overtook Eighth Grade for the best theater average of the year with $72,551. It also surpassed An Inconvenient Truth as the documentary with the best theater average of all time. The Old Man and the Gun was in a distant second place with an average of $28,426 in five theaters, while Matangi/Maya/M.I.A. was close behind with an average of $21,787 in two. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Colette with an average of $10,172 in 38 theaters. It will continue to expand. More...

Vice Trailer

October 3, 2018

Real-life drama starring Christian Bale and Amy Adams opens December 25 ... Full Movie Details. More...

International Box Office: Can None stop The Nun?

October 2, 2018

For the fourth weekend in a row, The Nun earned first place on the international chart. This past weekend, the film earned $16.4 million on 9,490 screens in 80 markets for totals of $220.2 million internationally and $329.2 million worldwide. There were no new markets this weekend, which explains the sharp decline from last week’s haul. That said, it remained in first place in France with $2.4 million on 367 screens for a two-week total of $7.6 million. The film is now the biggest hit in the franchise, both internationally and worldwide. More...

Home Market Releases for October 2nd, 2018

October 2, 2018

It’s an off week on the home market with no blockbusters to deal with. There are two solid midlevel hits, The First Purge and Sicario: Day of the Soldado, but neither of those are Pick of the Week contenders. (Ant-Man and the Wasp is also coming out this week, but only on Video on Demand). There are some high quality picks: Leave No Trace, Three Identical Strangers, Molly, The Spiral Staircase, and Hyouka. It was a close race, but in the end, I went with Leave No Trace Blu-ray as Pick of the Week. More...

Spider-man: Into the Spider-Verse Trailer

October 2, 2018

Super hero adventure starring Shameik Moore opens December 14 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Wishing September Good Night

October 2, 2018

Overall, the weekend matched our predictions almost perfectly. All three new releases came within a rounding error of our prediction, if not better. This includes Night School, which led the way with $27.26 million during its opening weekend, while Smallfoot wasn’t too far behind with $23.05 million. Overall, the box office was 14% higher than last weekend at $105 million. This is also 16% higher than the same weekend last year. 2018’s lead over 2017 remained nearly identical this week at 9.0% / $720 million with $8.77 billion compared to $8.04 billion. More...

Rocketman Trailer

October 1, 2018

Biographical musical starring Taron Egerton opens May 31 ... Full Movie Details. More...

2018 Preview: October

October 1, 2018

September turned out to be a solid month. The Nun beat expectations to become a $100 million hit, while there were also several midlevel hits in the mix. Granted, it lost ground when compared to last September, but last September broke records, and this September held on better than expected. Hopefully this means October will be able to continue 2018’s winning ways. There are several potential $100 million hits, starting with Venom and A Star is Born, which open the first weekend. Meanwhile, both First Man and Halloween could break the century mark later in the month. By comparison, last October, no movie topped $100 million, with Blade Runner 2049 coming the closest. 2018 should extend its lead over 2017 during the full month, potentially by a significant margin. More...

The Numbers News - October 2018

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