There are only two wide releases next weekend, as The Zookeeper’s Wife has been dropped to limited release. Both The Boss Baby and Ghost in the Shell have shots at $100 million in total. I don’t think both of them will get there, but both at least have a shot. If we assume both films have an equal shot at $100 million, Ghost in the Shell would still likely get off to a faster start, as it is an action film vs. a family film. Because of this, it is the best choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Ghost in the Shell.
April 1st is next Saturday, so we are starting our April Fools contests this week. Two of our winners will get movies from our prize pool, while one will be chosen at random to be the fool and receive an HD-DVD release.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also be a potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will be the final potential winner of two previously reviewed movies, or the winner of the Fool’s Prize.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
February was an okay month. The films that missed expectations were mostly balanced by the films that were pleasant surprises. Unfortunately, last February was amazing as Deadpool dominated the chart, so 2017 has fallen further behind 2016 and 2016’s lead is now about $100 million. It is not so bad that a good March won’t help 2017 back into the lead. Will that happen? We have some good news and some bad news. Good news: Every week there is one movie that has at least a shot at $100 million. Two of them, Logan and Beauty and the Beast, could reach $200 million or a lot more. Bad News: last March, both Zootopia and Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice earned more than $300 million. That’s a really powerful one-two punch and I don’t think we can replicate that this time around. On the other hand, last March, the third best film of the month was 10 Cloverfield Lane, while there were four films that were expected to open wide that earned less than $10 million at the box office. 2017 likely won’t be as good at the top, but I also don’t think it will have as many bombs either. If Beauty and the Beast reaches the very high end of expectations, then 2017 could even close the gap with 2016 entirely. I’ll be happy getting halfway there.
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