The Numbers News - August 2018
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Thursday Night Previews: Searching begins to Spread Out with $425,000
August 31, 2018
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Searching started its semi-wide run with $425,000 during its Thursday previews. It is really had to find a film to compare this to, as it was playing in limited release, while its “midnight” previews began at 5 pm. That said, we predicted $6 million over the four-day weekend and this result isn’t going to change my mind, at least not yet. We will need to wait till tomorrow to see if its reviews are going to give it long legs over the weekend.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Don’t Wait for Tomorrow to see a Limited Release
August 31, 2018
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It is a very busy week for limited releases, at least in terms of secondary VOD titles. There are only eight entries in the main list, and a couple of those didn’t have enough reviews, but I included anyway, because all of their reviews are currently positive. Inventing Tomorrow and Pick of the Litter are among a handful of documentaries that are worth checking out, as is Let the Corpses Tan.
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Robin Hood Trailer
August 31, 2018
Historical action movie starring Taron Egerton and Jamie Foxx opens November 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Predictions: Will the Box Office Relax Over Labor Day?
August 31, 2018
The last weekend of summer is a slow weekend. There’s only one true wide release, Kin, and it’s not expected to open in the top five. Operation Finale is opening in just over 1,800 theaters, but it should open in the top five, even though it is a Wednesday release. Searching is expanding into 1,200 theaters this weekend and that should get it into the top ten. Meanwhile, Crazy Rich Asians should complete the threepeat without any real competition. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million.
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The Happy Prince Trailer
August 30, 2018
Real-life drama starring Rupert Everett opens October 10 ... Full Movie Details.
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The Little Stranger Trailer
August 29, 2018
Gothic horror drama starring Domhnall Gleeson, Ruth Wilson, and Charlotte Rampling opens on Friday ... Full Movie Details.
Dr. Faraday, the son of a housemaid, has built a life of quiet respectability as a country doctor. During the long hot summer of 1948, he is called to a patient at Hundreds Hall, where his mother once worked. The Hall has been home to the Ayres family for more than two centuries. But it is now in decline and its inhabitants—mother, son and daughter—are haunted by something more ominous than a dying way of life. When he takes on his new patient, Faraday has no idea how closely, and how disturbingly, the family’s story is about to become entwined with his own.
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Theater Averages: Searching Found an Audience in Limited Release
August 29, 2018
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Searching had one of the ten best theater averages for a limited release so far this year, earning an average of $43,197 in nine theaters. The film is scheduled to expand wide this Friday and this start combined with its reviews is a good omen for its box office chances. The Bookshop was well back in second place with an average of $12,000 in 4 theaters. Meanwhile the only holdover was The Wife, which held on well with an average of $11,819 while playing in 18 theaters. The film should earn some measure of mainstream success, but I’m not sure it will last in theaters long enough to earn any real Awards Season buzz. Finally, John McEnroe: In the Realm of Perfection wasn’t able to reach the $10,000 club over the three-day weekend, as it earned $7,878 in its lone theater. However, it was a Wednesday release and it earned $11,733 during its five-day debut.
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International Box Office: Ant-Man has a Giant-Sized Chinese Debut
August 29, 2018
Ant-Man and the Wasp jumped into first place on the international chart earning $71.2 million in 28 markets for totals of $332.6 million internationally and $544.1 million worldwide. This past weekend, the film debuted in first place in China with $66.62 million over the weekend for a total opening of $68.14 million. This is the fourth biggest opening for the MCU in that market and 66% more than the original opened with. The film opens in Japan, its final market, next weekend. It should get to $600 million worldwide shortly after it debuts there.
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Home Market Releases for August 28th, 2018
August 29, 2018
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It is a very busy week with a flood of TV on DVD releases. Because of that, each entry has to be a little shorter than usual, especially the TV on DVD releases. There are some titles that are worth more attention, like American Animals, Bound, RBG, and others. It was a close race for Pick of the Week, but in the end I went with Bound on Blu-ray.
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A Private War Trailer
August 28, 2018
Real-life drama starring Rosamund Pike opens November 2 ... Full Movie Details.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Star Wars: Rebels: Season Four
August 28, 2018
Star Wars: Rebels was the final season of the show, which means its DVD / Blu-ray release is a bittersweet occasion. Is it a good end to the show? And does the two-disc set have enough extras to be worth picking up?
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Crazy Rich Asians Continues Box Office Dominance with Nearly $25 million
August 28, 2018
Summer officially ends next weekend with Labor Day, but Crazy Rich Asians is keeping the summer going with a sophomore stint of $24.80 million over the weekend. This is nearly twice as much as the second place film, The Meg. Meanwhile, the only true wide release of the week, The Happytime Murders, missed low end expectations with $9.53 million. The overall box office is down 21% from last weekend to just $103 million. That’s a sharp decline, but not uncommon for this time of year. More importantly, it was 49% more than the same weekend last year. That’s not as impressive as it seems, as this weekend last year one of the worst weekends in the past decade. Year-to-date, 2018 extended its lead to 10.1% or $740 million at $8.05 billion to $7.19 billion. On the down side, it won’t be long before 2017 really starts to eat into that lead.
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Lizzie Trailer
August 27, 2018
Real-life historical drama starring Chloë Sevigny and Kristen Stewart opens September 14 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Crazy Rich Nearly Matches Opening Weekend with $25 million
August 26, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way over the weekend with $25.01 million for a two-week total of $76.82 million. This is way more than expected and actually in line with our opening weekend prediction. Its sophomore stint decline was just a 6% from its opening three-day weekend; it’s just a 29% decline from its opening five-day weekend. On the downside, this is such an amazing hold that it is hard for analysts to figure out where it will go from here. We can safely say it will continue to pull in millions of dollars for weeks to come, but we don’t know if it will soar past $150 million or not. If it has a more normal decline next week, we will be able to be more sure. Regardless of what it does over the rest of its domestic run or how well it performs internationally, it will be a massively profitable movie and one of Warner Bros.’ biggest hits of the year.
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Friday Estimates: The Rich Keep Getting Richer
August 25, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians is this year’s The Hitman’s Bodyguard, at least in terms of legs. The film fell just 4% from its opening Friday earning $7.0 million on this Friday. The film was a Wednesday opening, so it likely won’t perform better on Saturday compared to last weekend, but the film will still earn about $23 million over the weekend. The book Crazy Rich Asians is based on is the first in a trilogy and I would be amazed if Warner Bros. hasn’t already begun work on the next two installments.
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Colette Trailer
August 25, 2018
Real-life historical drama starring Keira Knightley opens September 21 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Happytime has a Melancholy Debut
August 24, 2018
The Happytime Murders only managed $950,000 during its Thursday previews. I was really expecting a little more than $1 million during previews. This is close enough that matching our $13 million prediction is still possible, but $12 million is more likely. Its also means Crazy Rich Asians will have no problem repeating on top of the box office chart. In fact, it appears to be headed for an amazing sophomore stint, but more on that tomorrow.
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Johnny English Strikes Again Trailer
August 24, 2018
Spy spoof starring Rowan Atkinson opens October 26 ... Full Movie Details.
A cyber-attack reveals the identity of all active undercover agents in Britain, leaving Johnny English as the secret service’s last hope. Called out of retirement, English dives head first into action with the mission to find the mastermind hacker. As a man with few skills and analogue methods, Johnny English must overcome the challenges of modern technology to make this mission a success.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Searching for a Perfect Limited Release
August 24, 2018
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It’s a great week for limited releases, if you like documentaries, as there are four of them on this week’s list and all of them are earning good reviews. There are also a few films that earned loud pre-release buzz, at least compared to most other limited releases. However, most of these earning reviews that were mixed to good, but not great. The exception is Searching, which should be the biggest hit on this week’s list.
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Weekend Predictions: Can Happytime Overtake Crazy Rich Asians at the Box Office?
August 23, 2018
Summer is winding down and there are only one and a half wide releases this week. The Happytime Murders is a high-concept, lowbrow comedy that is probably too out there to find an audience. Meanwhile, A.X.L. is opening in less than 2,000 theaters and tracking has it opening below the Mendoza Line. This does mean Crazy Rich Asians has a real shot at repeating on top of the box office chart. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard was the only film to earn more than $10 million. This year, we should have two or three films do the same and 2018 should easily win in the year-over-year chart.
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Indivisible Trailer
August 23, 2018
Faith-based drama starring Justin Bruening and Sarah Drew opens October 26 ... Full Movie Details.
Upon returning from serving in the U.S. Army, Chaplain Darren Turner faces a crisis that shatters his family and faith in God but through the help of his fellow soldiers, he returns to his faith and family.
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Theater Averages: Wife has a Blazing Hot Start
August 22, 2018
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The Wife topped the theater average chart over the weekend with an average of $27,071 in four theaters. The film’s reviews are amazing and Glenn Close is earning some Oscar buzz, so perhaps it will stick around for a while. We the Animals was next with an average of $21,119 in three theaters. Blaze was also playing in three theaters earning an average of $14,750.
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The Old Man and the Gun Trailer
August 22, 2018
Crime caper starring Robert Redford and Sissy Spacek opens September 28 ... Full Movie Details.
The true story of Forrest Tucker, from his audacious escape from San Quentin at the age of 70 to an unprecedented string of heists that confounded authorities and enchanted the public. Wrapped up in the pursuit are detective John Hunt, who becomes captivated with Forrest’s commitment to his craft, and a woman, who loves him in spite of his chosen profession.
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Hunter Killer Trailer
August 21, 2018
Action thriller starring Gerard Butler, Gary Oldman, Common, and Linda Cardellini opens October 26 ... Full Movie Details.
An untested American submarine captain teams with U.S. Navy Seals to rescue the Russian president, who has been kidnapped by a rogue general.
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International Box Office: The Meg Continues to Terrorize the Competition
August 21, 2018
The Meg remained in first place on the international chart with $68.9 million on 23,767 screens in 55 markets, for totals of $232.2 million internationally and $316.0 million worldwide. Its biggest new market of the weekend was Australia, where it earned first place with $2.48 million on 413 screens. It also opened in South Korea, but struggled with $1.57 million on 598 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $3.19 million. Its biggest market overall was China, where it added $30.78 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $117.09 million. It fell just 38% during its sophomore stint, while it actually rose to second place, despite there being four new releases in the top ten. That’s stunning.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Crazy Rich Asians are $1 million Richer than Estimated
August 21, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat the weekend estimates by more than $1 million, which is great news for the film’s future, as it suggests even better word-of-mouth. The rest of the new releases were well back, but their weakness didn’t sink the weekend box office, as it pulled in $129 million. This was still down 12% from last weekend, but more importantly, this was a stunning 35% higher than the same weekend last year, which helped extend 2018’s lead over 2017. 2018’s lead is now 9.6% or $690 million at $7.88 billion to $7.19 billion. I suspect we have likely nearly reached the peak this lead will be throughout the rest of the year, but it would take a major collapse for 2018 to not finish with a healthy victory in the year-over-year comparison.
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Home Market Releases for August 21st, 2018
August 20, 2018
It’s a good week on the home market as we not only have a monster hit that is worth being a Pick of the Week contender, Deadpool 2, we have a wide selection of other contenders. This includes a limited release, First Reformed; an Anime title,Sakura Quest: Part Two; as well as a TV on DVD release, Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three. In the end, I went with Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three, but it was a close race.
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A Star is Born Trailer
August 20, 2018
Musical drama starring Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga opens October 5 ... Full Movie Details.
Jackson Maine discovers—and falls in love with—struggling artist Ally. She has just about given up on her dream to make it big as a singer… until Jack coaxes her into the spotlight. But even as Ally’s career takes off, the personal side of their relationship is breaking down, as Jack fights an ongoing battle with his own internal demons.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Ash vs. Evil Dead: Season Three
August 20, 2018
I previously reviewed the first
two seasons of this show and loved it. I was really disappointed to hear season three would be its last. There was an immediate fan campaign to bring the show back; however, that ended as soon as Bruce Campbell said he was happy with the way the series ended and it was time to retire Ash J. Williams. Was he right? Does the show end in a satisfying way? Or does it just end? And does season three live up to the show's high quality regardless?
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Weekend Estimates: Crazy Getting Richer over the Weekend
August 19, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians beat expectations and easily came out on top of the box office over the weekend. The film earned $25.24 million between Friday and Sunday, for a five-day opening of $34.00 million, which is amazing for a film that cost $30 million to make. It not only beat our original prediction, but its weekend estimates have grown since it debuted on Wednesday, which is a very good sign that the word-of-mouth is helping ticket sales. Its 92% positive reviews and its A-rating from CinemaScore back up that explanation. With this opening, the film would have to have terrible legs and completely bomb internationally to not break even. Having terrible legs seems unlikely, but we will know more about that next weekend. As for its international numbers, the film hasn’t opened in any major international markets, so it is too soon to tell. It does debut in Australia before the end of the month, so that will be the film’s first big test.
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Friday Estimates: Asians’ Crazy Rich First Place Opening
August 18, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians led the way on Friday with an impressive $7.26 million. Since it opened on Wednesday, it should have better legs than most new releases earn. Likewise, its reviews and its A from CinemaScore will also help its legs, putting it on pace for between $22 million and $23 million over the three-day weekend. Over four days, the film should make about $31 million, which is more than it cost to make. Even taking into account the studio’s share of the box office, Warner Bros. will cover its production budget before the end of the month, just on the its domestic numbers. Unless it really struggles internationally, it will break even before it reaches the home market. This might be enough to get more movies with predominantly Asian-American casts made in Hollywood.
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Serenity Trailer
August 18, 2018
Thriller starring Matthew McConaughey and Anne Hathaway opens October 19 ... Full Movie Details.
A fishing boat captain’s mysterious past, in the form of a glamorous woman, crashes up against his simple life on a small island in the Caribbean and ensnares him in a new reality that might not be all it seems.
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Thursday Night Previews: Mile 22’s $1 million Debut Dwarfed by Crazy Rich Asians
August 17, 2018
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Mile 22 opened with $1 million during its midnight previews. This is not that impressive and it means the film will very likely open on the extreme lower end of our predictions, with under $15 million. Terrible reviews won’t help its legs, although I assume the film’s CinemaScore will be relatively better, but I don’t expect it to stick around in theaters for that long.
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Halloween Trailer
August 17, 2018
Horror movie starring Jamie Lee Curtis opens October 19 ... Full Movie Details.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Dark Days for Limited Releases
August 17, 2018
It’s a short week for limited releases, as it is an awkward time of year to release a film. It’s too late to take advantage of the summer holidays, while it is far too soon for Awards Season buzz. That doesn’t mean there are no films earning amazing reviews. In fact, there are several: Blaze, Minding the Gap, We The Animals, The Wife, and The Wild Boys. Hopefully at least one of them will find an audience in theaters.
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Weekend Predictions: Will Crazy have a Rich Opening, or will Meg Swallow the New Releases?
August 16, 2018
Crazy Rich Asians leads a group of three films, both in terms of buzz and in terms of reviews. It also opened with $5.01 million on Wednesday, so its already looking like a box office success. On the other hand, Mile 22 has the worst reviews of the week and its buzz is only mediocre. That said, its buzz is still louder than Alpha’s buzz is. On the other hand, Alpha’s reviews are good enough that if it doesn’t struggle too much during its opening weekend, then its word-of-mouth should help its legs. This weekend last year, The Hitman’s Bodyguard opened with $21.38 million. That’s probably more than any film opening this weekend will make. On the other hand, the only other film to earn more than $10 million last year was Annabelle: Creation, while we should have four films do the same this year. The depth should help 2018 earn an easy win.
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Hell Fest Trailer
August 16, 2018
Horror movie opens September 28 ... Full Movie Details.
College student Natalie is visiting her childhood best friend Brooke and her roommate Tayler. If it was any other time of year these three and their boyfriends might be heading to a concert or bar, but it is Halloween which means that like everyone else they will be bound for Hell Fest—a sprawling labyrinth of rides, games, and mazes that travels the country and happens to be in town. But for one visitor, Hell Fest is not the attraction—it is a hunting ground. An opportunity to slay in plain view of a gawking audience. As the body count and frenzied excitement of the crowds continues to rise, he turns his masked face to Natalie, Brooke, Taylor and their boyfriends who will fight to survive the night.
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Theater Averages: Skating Madeline
August 16, 2018
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Skate Kitchen and Madeline’s Madeline had nearly identical openings earning $18,605 and $18,009 respectively. Both films were playing in only one theater a piece. The only other film in the $10,000 club was The Meg at $11,025.
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International Box Office: The Meg Swims the Seven Seas
August 16, 2018
The Meg led the way on the international chart cracking the century mark with $101.5 million on 30,212 screens in 42 markets and a worldwide opening of $146.9 million. This is great news, and the film cost Warner Bros. $130 million to make, after tax rebates and the like, so the film needed a monster opening to break even any time soon. The film’s biggest market was China, where it earned $49.83 million on 16,307 screens. It only managed third in that market, but it was a very busy weekend with two massive local hits also debuting this weekend. The film was able to top the charts in Mexico with $6.30 million on 1,936 screens and in Russia with $5.48 million on 2,628. It wasn’t as potent in the U.K., but it still topped the chart with $4.66 million in 499 theaters. The film has yet to open in South Korea, Australia, France, and Japan, so it should stick around the top five for a bit.
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Home Market Releases for August 14th, 2018
August 15, 2018
Avengers: Infinity War comes out on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack this week and it is scaring away most of the competition. That’s not to say there’s nothing else worth picking up. For example, Grace Jones: Bloodlight and Bami isn’t selling well enough to make the list, but the Blu-ray is certainly worth owning.
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Widows Trailer
August 15, 2018
Thriller starring Viola Davis, Elizabeth Debicki, Michelle Rodriguez, and Cynthia Erivo opens November 16 ... Full Movie Details.
The story of four women with nothing in common except a debt left behind by their dead husbands’ criminal activities. Set in contemporary Chicago, amid a time of turmoil, tensions build when Veronica, Alice, Linda and Belle take their fate into their own hands and conspire to forge a future on their own terms.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Muppet Babies: Time To Play
August 14, 2018
I loved the original Muppets TV show and really enjoyed the first Muppet Babies cartoon. Nostalgia was a big factor in requesting a screener for this TV show, because I’m clearly no longer in the age range that it is aimed at. Is nostalgia all it has going for it? Or will it work for kids of the right age range?
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Avengers: Infinity War
August 14, 2018
Avengers: Infinity War and its still unnamed sequel are the culmination of ten years of the MCU. This is a massive undertaking, even more so than the first Avengers movie, and with the MCU’s outstanding track record with critics and moviegoers alike, expectations couldn’t be higher. Can the movie possibly live up to expectations? Or was it destined to disappoint?
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Avengers: Infinity War - Spoiler / Detail Free Review
August 14, 2018
Like we did with The Force Awakens, we are going to do a spoiler-free, detail-free review for Avengers: Infinity War. In other words, we are going to rate all of the movies in the MCU to see where Infinity War and the rest fit into place.
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Green Book Trailer
August 14, 2018
Historical drama starring Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali opens November 21 ... Full Movie Details.
When Tony Lip, an Italian-American bouncer with a seventh-grade education, is hired to drive Dr. Don Shirley, a world-class African-American pianist on a concert tour from Manhattan to the Deep South, they must rely on the “Negro Motorist Green Book” to guide them to the few establishments that were then safe for Blacks. Confronted with racism, danger—as well as unexpected humanity and humor—they are forced to set aside differences to survive and thrive on the journey of a lifetime.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Meg Chows Down on Moviegoers
August 14, 2018
The Meg was arguably the biggest box office surprise of the summer, earning more during its opening weekend than many thought it would earn in total and it doubled our prediction. It also earned more than the next three films earned combined, so it was a rather one-sided affair at the box office. Its $45.40 million debut did help the overall box office rise 5.6% from last weekend reaching $147 million. More importantly, this is 26% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2018 now has a 9.1% / $640 million lead over 2017 at $7.68 billion to $7.04 million.
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Bad Times at the El Royale Trailer
August 13, 2018
Thriller starring Jeff Bridges, Cynthia Erivo, Dakota Johnson, Jon Hamm, and Chris Hemsworth opens October 12 ... Full Movie Details.
Seven strangers, each with a secret to bury, meet at Lake Tahoe’s El Royale, a rundown hotel with a dark past. Over the course of one fateful night, everyone will have a last shot at redemption… before everything goes to hell.
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Weekend Estimates: Meg is Biggest Killer Shark Movie In Decades
August 12, 2018
The Meg not only beat our initial prediction, it topped yesterday’s revised estimate and that’s a really good sign. Warner Bros. is reporting an opening weekend of $44.5 million. If this is accurate, then the film’s internal multiplier will be a healthy 2.70. Granted, its reviews are mixed and it only managed a B plus from CinemaScore and that’s not a great sign for its long term chances. However, there are no movies opening for the rest of the summer that are as big as this film, so that could help its legs. After all, The Hitman’s Bodyguard had a multiplier of 3.53. Internationally, the numbers were even better, as the film earned $96.8 million, including $50.3m on 12,650 screens in China. It is also a hit in Mexico ($6.2 million) and Russia ($5.0 million), although it is a more muted success in the U.K. with $4.4 million. That last market is on par with what we thought the film would open with here. On a side note, you are more likely to die eating shark that being eaten by a shark, so don’t kill sharks. They are apex predators and are very important to the environment.
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Friday Estimates: Meg Keeps Summer Alive
August 11, 2018
Surprisingly, The Meg dominated the box office on Friday with a very summer-like opening day of $16.5 million. There were some who thought the film wouldn’t earn that much during the entire weekend. Our prediction wasn’t that pessimistic, but this result still blows it out of the water. The film earned 51% positive reviews and a B plus from CinemaScore. Both results are fine. They are nothing special, but also nothing to worry about. The genre does tend to be front-loaded, so a $40 million weekend isn’t not a sure thing, but more of a coin toss. Even if the film doesn’t reach that mark over its opening weekend, this will still be a major win for Warner Bros., which has not has a good year.
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The Nun Trailer
August 11, 2018
Supernatural horror movie opens September 7 ... Full Movie Details.
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Thursday Night Previews: Meg Takes a Big Bite out of the Box Office
August 10, 2018
The Meg earned $4 million during its Thursday previews. This is about double what I was expecting and puts it on a clear path to over $30 million during its opening weekend. It will likely be front-loaded, as the reviews are barely above 50% positive and this genre of film tends to be front-loaded, even with good reviews. That said, it could match Annabelle: Creation’s opening from last year with just over $35 million. We will know more tomorrow when Friday’s estimates come in. The film also reportedly earned $16 million during its opening day in China, earning third place in the process. It’s going to be a busy weekend in China if a $16 million opening day is only good enough for third place.
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The Sisters Brothers Trailer
August 10, 2018
Western starring John C. Reilly, Joaquin Phoenix, and Jake Gyllenhaal opens September 21 ... Full Movie Details.
Two brothers—Eli and Charlie Sisters—are hired to kill a prospector who has stolen from their boss.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Limited’s Limited Releases
August 10, 2018
There are very few films on this week’s list of limited releases; however almost all of them are earning great reviews. Even the two exceptions, BUYBUST and Summer of 84, are earning good reviews. Out of all of the films on this week’s list, Madeline’s Madeline and Skate Kitchen have the best shot at earning some measure of mainstream success.
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Weekend Predictions: Do the New Releases Face Impossible Obstacle?
August 9, 2018
There are four films opening wide or semi-wide this week. This includes Dog Days, which started on Wednesday. However, while it was released first, it is widely expected to be the last at the box office of the five wide releases. The Meg is widely expected to be the biggest new release of the week and it is the only film with a real shot at unseating Mission: Impossible—Fallout for top spot. I was expecting BlacKkKlansman to only open in limited release this week before trying to expand next week, but it is opening in 1,500 theaters giving it a real shot at a top five opening. Finally there’s Slender Man, a horror movie based on an internet meme that peaked years ago. It likely won’t be the worse box office performer of the weekend, but I’m not sure it will reach the top five. This weekend last year, Annabelle: Creation was the last blockbuster of summer opening with $35 million. No movie is going to match that this year. However, all three new releases made less than $50 million, while the four new releases could top that this weekend. I don’t think 2018 will win, but it should at least be close.
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The House with a Clock in its Walls Trailer
August 9, 2018
Fantasy adventure starring Owen Wilder Vaccaro, Jack Black, and Cate Blanchett opens September 21 ... Full Movie Details.
The tale of 10-year-old Lewis, who goes to live with his uncle in a creaky old house with a mysterious tick-tocking heart. But his new town’s sleepy façade jolts to life with a secret world of warlocks and witches when Lewis accidentally awakens the dead.
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Theater Averages: Getting Smarter
August 9, 2018
The Miseducation of Cameron Post was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend earning an average of $24,319 in two theaters.
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International Box Office: The Rise and Fall(out) of Mission: Impossible
August 8, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout returned to first place on the international chart with $76 million in 56 markets for totals of $205 million internationally and $330 million worldwide. The film opened in first place in both Japan and France, earning $8 million in each market. By this time next week, the film will no longer be in last place for the franchise, but it is still too soon to tell if it will become the biggest hit out of the six films.
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Unbroken: Path to Redemption Trailer
August 8, 2018
Faith-based drama starring Samuel Hunt opens September 14 ... Full Movie Details.
After surviving a plane crash, weeks of floating on a makeshift raft in the Pacific, and then years of torture as a prisoner of war, Louis Zamperini finally returns home to California, seemingly unbroken. Haunted by nightmares of his torment, Louie sees himself as anything but a hero. Then, he meets Cynthia, a young woman who captures his eye—and his heart. Louie’s wrathful quest for revenge drives him deeper into despair, putting the couple on the brink of divorce. Until Cynthia experiences Billy Graham’s 1949 Los Angeles Crusade, where she finds faith in God and a renewed commitment to her marriage and her husband. Now, her most fervent prayer is for God to help Louie find the peace and forgiveness he so desperately needs.
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Home Market Releases for August 7th, 2018
August 8, 2018
It is a deceptively busy week on the home market, and not in a good way. There’s no one big release, at least not on DVD / Blu-ray, but there’s a sea of mediocrity this week. I’m not talking about quality here, but sales rank. There are a lot of films that wouldn’t even be filler during a normal week, but this week are selling well enough to be mentioned. There are several that are worth picking up, including limited releases like Bye Bye Germany and Revenge, classics like The Changeling, and even some Anime titles like Big Fish & Begonia or Tsuredure Children. Deadpool 2 is by far the biggest release of the week and I suspect the Blu-ray will be the Pick of the Week when it comes out, but I don’t want to give it that title until than. As a result, there’s no real winner this week. There were a lot that came close.
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Peppermint Trailer
August 7, 2018
Action movie starring Jennifer Garner opens September 7 ... Full Movie Details.
Young mother Riley North awakens from a coma after her husband and daughter are killed in a brutal attack on the family. When the system frustratingly shields the murderers from justice, Riley sets out to transform herself from citizen to urban guerilla. Channeling her frustration into personal motivation, she spends years in hiding honing her mind, body and spirit to become an unstoppable force—eluding the underworld, the LAPD and the FBI—as she methodically delivers her personal brand of justice.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Fallout Continues its Mission
August 7, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout remained on top of the weekend box office chart thanks in part to a stronger than expected hold and in part to weaker than expected competition. Christopher Robin was the only new release to make any real noise opening in second place with $24.59 million, while The Spy Who Dumped Me opened with less than half of that. Overall, the box office earned $139 million, 11% lower than last weekend. More importantly, this was 14% higher than this weekend last year. 2018 extended its lead over 2017 to just under $600 million or 8.7% at $7.46 billion to $6.86 billion.
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Ya Veremos Trailer
August 6, 2018
Romantic drama starring Mauricio Ochmann, Fernanda Castillo, and Emiliano Aramayo opens August 31 ... Full Movie Details.
The story of Santi, a preteen who is dealing with the recent separation of his parents Rodrigo and Alejandra. Despite their divorce, Santi’s parents are both desperately devoted to their son. When the three learn that Santi has a medical condition that could jeopardize his eyesight, Santi’s father encourages him to make a list of places and things he wants to see and do before losing his sight completely. Santi immediately obliges with an elaborate list but with one condition—the estranged couple must come together to help him fulfill his dreams. As the three embark on an amazing, and sometimes wacky, adventure, the couple must learn how to live together for the sake of their son. But will the adventure open their eyes and make separating impossible? We’ll see…
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Breaking In
August 5, 2018
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Breaking In wasn’t a big hit at the box office, but it did well enough to cover its production budget during its opening weekend and will likely break even early in its home market run. The film does have a good hook, so I’m not surprised it did as well as it did, but does it have anything more?
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Weekend Estimates: Fallout Doesn’t Fall Very Far
August 5, 2018
Mission: Impossible—Fallout fell just 43% during its second weekend earning $35.0 million for a two-week total of $124.5 million. It will have no trouble getting to $200 million domestically, especially with the weak competition for the rest of the month.
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Kin Trailer
August 5, 2018
Sci-fi action movie starring Myles Truitt and Jack Reynor opens August 31 ... Full Movie Details.
The story of an unexpected hero destined for greatness. Chased by a vengeful criminal, the feds and a gang of otherworldly soldiers, a recently released ex-con and his adopted teenage brother are forced to go on the run with a weapon of mysterious origin as their only protection.
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Friday Estimates: Christopher Robin can’t make Fallout Fall from Top Spot
August 4, 2018
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There was a virtual tie on top of the Friday box office chart, which was good news for Paramount, but not so good news for Disney. Mission: Impossible—Fallout held on better than expected, remaining in first place with $9.85 million, and putting it on pace for $34 million over the weekend. With this result, it will cruise to $200 million domestically. This would be the first $200 million hit for Paramount since Transformers: Age of Extinction came out in 2014. Four years is a long time between $200 million hits.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Educate Yourself with some Limited Releases
August 3, 2018
It’s a short list this week, which is common for this time of year. The only film earning a lot of buzz is The Miseducation of Cameron Post, but its reviews will likely prevent it from doing well in theaters. Night Comes On is earning the best reviews, but it is also playing on Video on Demand, so it too won’t do well in theaters. Maybe Nico, 1988 will be a surprise hit.
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Thursday Night Previews: Christopher Robin’s $1.5 million Start is a Good Omen
August 3, 2018
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Christopher Robin earned $1.5 million during its previews last night. There are not a lot of movies that are great matches for this movie, so it is hard to judge if this is a good start or not. This is almost exactly twice as large an opening as the $775,000 The BFG earned during its previews, so if this film earned the same legs, it would top our prediction by a few million dollars. I’ve seen some people compare it to Peter Rabbit, but that was a spring release. Another Pete, Pete’s Dragon, is a much better comparison, but it had no previews. Despite the lack of concrete data, I think this debut is on the high end of expectations and with good reviews, it should top $33 million over the weekend by a little bit. Anything more than $35 million would be a bit of a surprise.
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Weekend Predictions: Can Christopher Robin Survive the Fallout?
August 2, 2018
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There are four films opening wide or semi-wide during the first weekend of the August. This includes the only potential $100 million hit, Christopher Robin. The Spy Who Dumped Me’s roller coaster ride on Rotten Tomatoes appears to be coming to an end at the mediocre end of things, but that’s not bad compared to the average August release. On the other hand, bad is the best way to describe The Darkest Minds, while calling Death of a Nation “bad” is a glorious understatement. While most of the new releases are not expected to make an impact at the box office, there could be a close race on top between Christopher Robin and Mission: Impossible—Fallout. This weekend last year, The Dark Tower opened in first place with just under $20 million. This year, the top two films should beat that with ease. Last year’s depth was better, but 2018 should still win in the year-over-year comparison.
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Theater Averages: Documentaries Remain in Fashion
August 2, 2018
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Scotty and the Secret History of Hollywood dominated the theater average chart earning first place with $28,144 in one theater. The next closest film was a fellow documentary, McQueen, which earned an average of $16,692 in five theaters during its second weekend of release. The overall number one film, Mission: Impossible—Fallout, was next with an average of $13,962. The final film in the $10,000 club was Puzzle, with an average of $12,243 in five theaters.
International Box Office: Over $100 million for Mr. Billion
August 1, 2018
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Hello Mr. Billionaire, a Chinese remake of Brewster’s Millions, opened in first place in China and the international market with $132.26 million. That’s more than 800 million in the local currency, while it took just one more day to live up to its name and reach 1 billion Yen in revenue.
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Home Market Releases for July 31st, 2018
August 1, 2018
This is one of the worst weeks on the home market I can remember. There’s nothing here that even remotely looks like a top-notch release, at least on physical medium. This is the week that Avengers: Infinity War hits Video on Demand and it is dominating the home market in that regard and has to be the Pick of the Week. The only other releases that were close are Star Blazers: Space Battleship Yamato 2199 on Blu-ray Combo Pack and Star Wars Rebels: Season Four.
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2018 Preview: August
August 1, 2018
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Overall, July was a a little weaker than expected. Ant-Man and the Wasp appears to be on pace for $200 million, while it is too soon to tell if Mission: Impossible—Fallout will also get there. That said, 2018 is still ahead of 2017 by $550 million, so the month of July was a success in that regard. As for August, there’s only one movie that is expected to earn $100 million, Christopher Robin, and maybe a few others that could hit $50 million. It’s a rather sad slate of movies. Fortunately, last August was even worse, so 2018 should at least maintain its lead. Maybe we can get lucky and come away with a $600 million lead by the end of the month.
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