Despite his family’s baffling generations-old ban on music, Miguel dreams of becoming an accomplished musician like his idol, Ernesto de la Cruz. Desperate to prove his talent, Miguel finds himself in the stunning and colorful Land of the Dead following a mysterious chain of events. Along the way, he meets charming trickster Hector, and together, they set off on an extraordinary journey to unlock the real story behind Miguel's family history.
It is a slow week with less than a dozen releases in the main section, and that includes two late reviews. There’s no more than that for the secondary Blu-ray releases. That said, a high percentage of these are worth picking up with many Pick of the Week contenders. For example, the biggest release of the week, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, is one of the best, as is one of the smallest releases, Miss Kiet’s Children. However, in the end, I went with Coco, which technically came out a couple of weeks ago, but the screener arrived late and it really deserves the title of Pick of the Week.
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CocowonBest Feature-Length Animated Film at this year’s Oscars, an award Pixar has won so many times that people sometimes refer to it as The Pixar Award. Did Coco deserve this award? Or have voters just become accustomed to voting for whatever Pixar movie came out that year?
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Thor: Ragnarok is by far the biggest Blu-ray release of the week and one of the best blockbusters of 2017. However, it was already named Pick of the Week last week, so we will have to pick a different film this week. There are a few contenders: The Breadwinner, Faces Places, and Lady Bird. All three of them are Oscars nominated films, none of them won. It was a close call, but in the end, Lady Bird won.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. We will announce the winners and have our reactions as they happen, while keeping track of how our readers did in predicting the outcomes.
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It’s Oscar night and we will be live blogging the show. Before that, let’s take a last look at the nominations with a few annotations. Nominees in Italics are those that have received the most votes from our readers so far in our Oscar contest (which is open to new entries until noon, Pacific, today—enter now!). Bold films are those films I think will win. Meanwhile, those that are Underlined are those I want to win. Not all categories have underlined nominees, because not all categories have someone I’m cheering for, or because there are two nominees I couldn’t pick between. For example, I will be happy no matter who wins Best Supporting Actress. One last note: The contest is still going and the leading for Best Picture Switched from The Shape of Water to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to tied over the time I was writing this story. This is the closest I’ve ever seen it. Guessing the best picture correctly will go a long way to winning.
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It is a great week on the home market with several Oscar contenders making their home market debuts. I put in review requests for several of them, but so far none have arrived. Coco is still a contender for Pick of the Week, but I’ve heard some backlash against the other two, so I want to wait to see for myself. In the end, I went with Thor: Ragnarok and Pick of the Week, even though the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack don’t come out till next week. The screener arrived early and it is certainly the best Blu-ray on this week’s list.
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The BAFTAs were handed out on Sunday night, with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning the most awards at five. This is not too surprising, as it was technically a British film, despite its setting, and that gave it a leg up on the competition.
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and look at that, there’s a Pixar film on this list. Is Coco the overwhelming favorite? Or does another film have what it takes?
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Maze Runner: The Death Cure remained in first place with $35.5 million in 80 markets for totals of $143.2 million internationally and $183.2 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned first place with $3.20 million. Its best market overall was China, where it added $5.17 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $38.67 million.
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The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure jumped into first place on the international chart with $62.6 million in 70 markets for an early international total of $82.0 million. The film opened in first place in China with $22.80 million over the weekend for a total opening of $23.07 million. On the other hand, the film struggled in the U.K. earning third place with just $3.19 million in 507 theaters. By the end of the weekend, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office was over $40 million, which is fantastic for a film that cost $61 million to make. It should have no trouble breaking even early in its home market run, if not sooner.
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Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle remained in first place with $32.6 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $450.8 million internationally and $767.3 million worldwide. Had the film earned half of that, it still would have been a financial success worthy of a sequel. China was the film’s biggest market, both of the weekend and overall, as it earned $7.71 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $66.50 million. The film will have no trouble getting to $800 million worldwide, probably by the end of this coming weekend, while $900 million isn’t completely out of the question.
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The Oscar nominations were announced starting at just after 5 am Pacific time. They do this every year and no one has been able to adequately explain why to me. At least there were some interesting results this year. The Shape of Water led the way with 13 nominations, which is one below the current record and nearly as many as the next two films combined. Overall, there were seventeen films that earned two or more nominations.
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Nearly every film we talked about in our predictions beat expectations over the weekend. This includes Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, which earned first place with $19.51 million. All three wide releases did better than expected, with 12 Strong leading the way with $15.82 million. The overall box office still fell 15% from last weekend to $135 million. A 15% drop-off for a post-holiday weekend isn’t bad. Compared to this weekend last year, 2018 was down by 7.0%, which isn’t good, but it could have been much worse. Year-to-date, 2018 still has a small lead of 2.9% or $20 million at $725 million to $704 million. Granted, it is still way too early for this to matter, but an early lead means you won’t need to fight back late in the year like we did last year.
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The Producers Guild of America awards were handed out last night. There are only three theatrical awards, plus a special award previously announced, and none of the results were truly surprising. In fact, two of them were completely predictable.
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Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle leaped into first place with $81.75 million on 33,000 screens in 83 markets for totals of $385.03 million internationally and $669.27 million worldwide. The film debuted in first place in China with $39.74 million on 20,000 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $40.23 million. Had the film only earned $385.03 million in total, it still would have been enough to to break even before the home market. The film will eventually hit $800 million worldwide, which is enough to cover its entire budget and the production budget of the inevitable sequel.
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The BAFTA nominations were announced and this time The Shape of Water led the way with 12 nominations. The same films appear on many of the lists of nominees, but so far no one film has come to dominate the list. This makes it interesting, to say the least. There’s a good chance no one film will win the majority of prestige awards and that multiple films will have lots of reason to celebrate on February 18th when the awards are handed out.
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The Golden Globes winners were announced on Sunday and there were a few surprises worth talking about, starting at the top. I was not expecting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to be the big winner of the night, but it was with four wins. Only two other movies, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, won more than one award during the night.
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The Producers Guild of America finally finished announcing their nominations. (They spread out their announcements for reasons I’ve never quite understood.) It is a strange year for the PGAs, as there was a tie resulting in 11 films being nominated for the top prize.
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We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film dominated the international chart with $230.0 million in 54 markets during its first weekend of release, while its worldwide opening was $450.0 million. However, it wasn’t the only film at the international box office.
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We already discussedStar Wars: The Last Jedi’s incredible debut yesterday, but there were other films that were in theaters over the weekend. The Last Jedi earned nearly 80% of the total weekend box office, so the rest of the box office had to settle for the leftovers. Ferdinand was a distant second with just $13.40 million, which is lower than our low expectations. Overall, the box office more than tripled from last week hitting $278 million. More importantly, it rose by 31% when compared to this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 cut 2016’s lead by nearly $100 million in just one week. Granted, 2017 is still behind by $320 million or 3.0% at $10.10 billion to $10.42 billion. However, I just wanted 2017 to cut the lead to $250 million and that looks a lot more likely now than it did even a month ago.
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It was announced last week that Disney bought Fox Studios. To be more specific, they bought TV and movie production, cable channels, and the back catalog, but not Fox News, Fox Sports, or the local Fox TV stations. A lot of people have wondered what this will do to the industry. In my opinion, a lot of people have reacted in a disproportionately negative way. I will look at some of the issues that have been brought up, starting with...
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Star Wars: The Last Jedi will earn $220 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. After starting out with the second-biggest day of all time on Friday (a monstrous $104.787 million, including $45 million in Thursday previews), the film looks to be holding on well through the weekend. Saturday’s estimate is $64 million, off 39% from Friday, compared to The Force Awakens’ decline of 43% on its second day. Disney is projecting a decline of 20% on Sunday, while Awakens dropped 11%, which suggests caution on their part, and the possibility of a final opening weekend a little higher than their current projection.
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The Last Jedi topped last night’s estimate, earning $104.78 million on Friday. It is only the second film to reach the century mark during its opening day. It is still 12% lower than the $119 million The Force Awakensopened with, but if it has the same legs, it will earn $218 million during its opening weekend. The reviews are practicallyidentical and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so having similar legs is more likely. Sequels usually have shorter legs, but The Last Jedi had better growth from Thursday previews to Friday’s numbers, so this could be a good omen. Maybe it will earn $220 million during its opening weekend.
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Disney is really on top of the The Last Jedi hype train sending updated tracking of its opening day. Instead of aiming for $94 million to $99 million, the studio is aiming for $99 million to $104 million, putting on pace to be only the second film to earn $100 million during its opening day. Furthermore, CinemaScore released their final rating and it was a solid A, exactly what the reviews would suggest. The studio expects the film to make $205 million to $215 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our prediction that I’m happy.
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2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself.
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Coco earned first place for the second time with $55.3 million in 35 markets for totals of $254.0 million internationally and $389.7 million worldwide. Even if we pretended Christmas wasn’t right around the corner and that the film didn’t still have several major markets left to open in, it would still be on track to earn over $500 million worldwide, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and likely a sizable chunk of its advertising budget. With Christmas less than two weeks away and international openings in Australia, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, the U.K., and Japan still ahead, there’s a chance this film will finish with $750 million worldwide. That would be more than enough to pay for its combined production budget, meaning it will break even before it reaches the home market. As for this past weekend, the film continued to top the chart in China with $34.80 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $127.98 million.
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It was a good weekend at the box office, relatively speaking, as most films in the top five beat expectations. Granted, this was mostly by tiny amounts, but it added up. We still fell 20% compared to last week to $84 million. This is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year and we were expecting a similarly close loss, so this is a surprise victory. The year-over-year numbers are almost identical to last week, with this year down by 4.1% or $420 million when compared to last year. Right now 2017 has pulled in $9.79 billion, while 2016 had a running tally of $10.21 billion.
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The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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Coco remains the number one movie at the box office this weekend by a considerable margin, mainly due to a lack of serious competition from new releases. Disney’s animated adventure will gross about $18.3 million this weekend, for a domestic total of $135.5 million. The film will also pile up another $55.3 million internationally, taking its worldwide cume to $389.5 million. It still has some big openings to come, including Brazil, Korea, the UK, and Japan in January, so it has some way to go, although its progress will be eclipsed by The Last Jedi for the next few weeks.
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Cocosurprised no one by earning first place on Friday. It earned $4.27 million, giving it a running tally of $121.48 million after 17 days of release and putting it on pace for $19 million over the weekend. Good news: This is a little better than expected. Bad news: Next weekend could be a mess, as the film will not only have to deal with monster competition, but direct competition as well. If it can avoid being demolished at the box office next weekend, then it will stick around in the top ten for the rest of the year. Even if if does get demolished, it still has a shot at $200 million domestically, but it will be close.
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There is only one wide release this weekend, Just Getting Started. However, it is barely opening wide and is widely expected to miss the top ten. This means the top five will barely change from last week and Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Office Christmas Party opened in second place, behind Moana. Office Christmas Party was hardly a monster hit, but it was strong enough to keep 2017 from winning the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully, it will still be close.
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Coco climbed into first place with $69.0 million in 33 markets for totals of $171.3 million internationally and $281.4 million worldwide. The film opened in a trio of major markets in Europe, earning first place in all three. France led the way with $5.2 million, $6.4 million including previews, while Spain ($2.8 million) and Germany ($2.0 million) were also strong results. It beat Moana’s opening in all three markets. The film grew 146% during its second weekend in China earning $44.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $75.79 million. The film is already the biggest Pixar hit in China and is in third place for Disney animated films, behind Zootopia and Big Hero 6.
It was a good weekend, as every film in the top five beat expectations at the weekend box office. Granted, in most cases it was by a tiny amount, but any victory is worth celebrating at this point. It has been a really bad year at the box office. (Or to be more accurate, the summer was historically bad and the rest of the year hasn’t been able to compensate.) Coco led the way with $27.53 million and thanks to the holidays, should stick around in the top ten until early 2018 helping it get past $200 million with ease. The overall box office fell 44% from last weekend to $105 million; however, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a decline like this was expected. More importantly, the box office rose 9.7% from last year and this is reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016’s pace by 4.1% / $410 million, at $9.68 billion to $10.09 billion, but if we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, then we could really cut into 2016’s lead.
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The weekend after Thanksgiving is usually when the studios take a breather before the big Christmas season, and this year is no different, with no new wide releases, and relatively minor shuffles on screen use at the theaters. It’s therefore little surprise that Coco holds on at the top of the chart, and its strong reviews and season-friendly nature help it to extend its lead over Justice League. Coco is headed towards $26.114 million this weekend, according to Disney, for $109 million or so to date. That’s down 49% from last weekend. Justice League, meanwhile, drops a more troubling 60% to $16.58 million, for $197 million after three weekends.
More exciting action lies among the limited and expanding releases, however…
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Coco beat expectations by a tiny margin on Friday, earning $6.28 million. This is 67% lower than its opening Friday, but its opening Friday was also a Holiday, so that’s to be expected. Look for $27 million over the full weekend, which is a little lower than Moana’s second weekend of release, but the gap between the two is closing. Given Coco’s reviews and its A+ from CinemaScore, it might start catching up by this time next week.
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There are no wide releases this weekend, which means Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. In fact, most of the top five will remain the same as last weekend. Maybe one of the Awards Season contenders will expand enough to grab a spot in the top five, but that isn’t really likely. This weekend last year, Moana remained in first place, as there were also no new releases to compete against. 2017 should be able to win in the year-over-year comparison, but it will be awfully close.
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Justice League plummeted more than 60% to $71.5 million on 32,800 screens in 66 markets for two week totals of $310.98 million internationally and $482.88 million worldwide. It’s only major opening came in Japan, where it earned first place with $3.85 million on 645 screens. This is ahead of Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok, so the movie is keeping its dreams of $800 million worldwide alive. It really needs that much to break even any time soon. Its biggest holdover was China, where it fell 68% to $16.36 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $84.17 million. It should be able to get to the century mark there, which will be reason to celebrate. It remained in first place in Brazil with $5.4 million on 1,617 screens for a two-week total of $24.8 million.
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Call Me by Your Name dominated the theater average chart with an average of $103,233 in four theaters. It is the first film of the year to reach the $100,000 mark on the per theater chart. Lady Bird was the previous yearly champion with an average of $91,109, also in four theaters. The second-best average of the week was earned by Darkest Hour at $43,752 in four theaters. Bombshell: The Hedy Lamarr Story earned $18,742 in one theater; that’s amazing for a documentary. The overall number one film, Coco, earned an average of $12,742. The only holdover in the $10,000 club was Justice League, as it pulled in $10,143.
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Coco gave Disney yet another reason to be thankful for Thanksgiving weekend. It topped the chart, to give the studio 10 of the 11 biggest Thanksgiving openings of all time. Meanwhile, Justice League fell a little bit faster than expected, and $250 million domestically might be out of reach. It depends on how well it holds onto its theater count when The Last Jedi opens. Overall, the box office fell 5.2% from last weekend to $189 million. This is 2.4% higher than the same weekend last year. Granted, that’s not enough to deal with inflation, but at this point, I’m willing to use any excuse to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 was able to close the gap with 2016, but is still behind 4.1% with $9.53 billion to $9.95 billion.
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Coco will easily top the box office chart this Thanksgiving weekend, with Disney projecting a $71 million 5-day opening, including $49 million from Friday to Sunday. That’s the fourth-best Thanksgiving opening of all time, behind Frozen ($94 million), Moana ($82 million), and Toy Story 2 ($80 million). In all, Disney lays claim to 10 of the top 11 opening weekend’s over this holiday period, although, to be fair, the Hunger Games and Harry Potter franchises both claim several spots in the higher reaches of the Thanksgiving weekend record chart, but were just playing in their second weekend, rather than opening.
Nit-picking aside, it’s a great weekend for Coco.
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It’s the Saturday after Black Friday, so things are returning to normal. Coco is leading the way, which no one should be terribly surprised by. It earned $13.24 million on Wednesday, which was about 15% lower than Moana’s opening day. It held on better on Thursday, cutting the gap to about 10% with $8.93 million. However, by Friday, it was behind Moana by 15% again. That said, if is maintains this pace throughout the rest of the weekend it will earn $48 million / $71 million during its opening weekend. This is almost exactly as I predicted and more than enough to make Disney very happy. Furthermore, thanks to 96% positive review and an amazing A plus from CinemaScore, as well as no real competition for the next two weeks, the film should have excellent legs.
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Coco is the only wide release of the week, which is amazing for Thanksgiving weekend. This should boost its chances at the box office and it is now expected to open in first place. Justice League was expected to repeat as box office champion this weekend, but that’s likely not going to happen now. This weekend last year, Moana earned $82 million over the five-day weekend. I don’t think Coco will match that, but it will come close enough to top the chart.
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Justice League easily won the weekend race on the international chart with a total opening of $184.95 million on 47,000 screens in 65 markets. Its biggest market was China, where it opened with $50.58 million over the weekend for a total opening of $51.89 million. Its best market was Brazil, where it earned $14.2 million on 1,580 screens, which is the biggest all-time opening in that market. In most major markets, the film opened above Wonder Woman and Thor: Ragnarok. For example, the film earned $9.6 million in Mexico, compared to $8.22 million for Wonder Woman and $7.34 million for Thor: Ragnarok. It wasn’t as impressive in every market. For example, it only managed $9.67 million during its first place opening in the U.K., which is equivalent to a little more than $50 million here. The film opens in Japan this weekend, but it will need good legs to pay for its $300 million production budget.
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Next weekend, Coco is the only film that I’m 100% sure is opening truly wide. On the other hand, because it is Thanksgiving, it is opening on the Wednesday, which complicates the contest, as we only care about the Friday through Sunday weekend. It is still the only choice for the target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Coco.
We are continuing our Christmas contest, which means each winner will get a Frankenprize that is either present or a lump of coal. The present will include a couple of movies, TV shows, maybe some kids DVDs, etc., while the lump of coal will be the last of my HD-DVD titles, while they last, as well as something from the prize pool.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final win a Frankenprize, as described above.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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For the third weekend in a row, Thor: Ragnarok dominated the international chart, earning $75.9 million in 56 markets for totals of $438.5 internationally and $650.6 million worldwide. The film fell 59% during its second weekend in China, but this is actually much better than average for the market. It added $21.71 million this past weekend, pushing its running tally to $95.51 million after just two weeks of release in that market. The film held up even better in the U.K., where it dipped just 33% to $4.05 million in 569 theaters for a three-week total of $34.07 million. Its next biggest international market was South Korea, where it has earned $31.07 million, including $3.53 million on 856 screens this past weekend. The film already has more worldwide than either of the previous Thor films earned in total. It has entered the top ten in the MCU and it is on pace to enter the top five on that chart before its done.
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As expected, Thor: Ragnarok remained in first place on the international chart dominating the competition with $151.4 million in 55 markets during its second weekend of release for a two-week total of $306.0 million internationally and $428.7 million worldwide. After just two weeks of release, the film is within striking distance of the original Thor at the worldwide box office and by this time next week, it might surpass The Dark World. As for this past weekend’s highlights, the box office was led by China, where it earned first place with $53.42 million over the weekend for a total opening of $54.53 million. This is the biggest November opening in that market and the biggest total for a Thor film. It had to settle for second place in Mexico, but was still impressive with $7.34 million over the weekend for a total opening of $10.52 million. It also did well in Germany with $5.5 million over the weekend for a total opening of $8.9 million, which is 70% higher than Doctor Strange’s opening there last year. The best holdover came from South Korea, where it was down 47% to $6.39 million on 1,047 screens over the weekend for a two-week total of $25.88 million. The only market left to open in is Trinidad, but even with no major markets, the film will have no trouble getting to $500 million internationally and $800 million worldwide.
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October wasn’t a good month; then again, outside of a few bright spots, the overall box office has been a disaster since early summer. I would love to say November will turn things around, but, while it should be better, in this case “better” is a relative term. There are two films on this list with a chance at $300 million, Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League, while Coco is nearly a guarantee for $200 million. By comparison, last November had a similar result with three films earning between $200 million and $300 million, but none topping that figure. This means, if Thor: Ragnarok and Justice League both get to that milestone, then 2017 could cut into 2016’s lead during the month. It will still take a minor miracle for 2017 to catch up in the end, but just cutting the lead in half by the end of December would be a reason to celebrate at this point.
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