The Numbers News - December 2017
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Friday Estimates: Last Jedi Starts New Year’s Weekend with $19.06 million
December 30, 2017
The last year to have Christmas and New Years Days on a Monday was 2006. Using that year as a guide and adjusting for changes in the market, specifically how much more front-loaded films tend to be, I was expecting a slight improvement for Star Wars: The Last Jedi from Thursday to Friday. That didn’t happen. In reality, the film lost 2.2% of its daily box office to hit $19.06 million on Friday. Granted, the film already has $483.76 million domestically and will likely hit first place for the year by the end of business today, surpassing Beauty and the Beast. Even with a slightly reduced weekend estimate of $54 million / $70 million, it is on pace for $600 million domestically with relative ease, making it a shoo-in for the sixth-highest-grossing domestic film of all time.
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Last Jedi has $464.6 Million Two-Week Total, Including $19.4 Million Thursday
December 29, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi finished its second week at the box office with $19.4 million on Thursday giving it a total of $464.6 million after two weeks of release. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $22.93 million for a total of $651.97 million, while Rogue One managed $16.72 million during this day in its run for a running tally of $375.38 million. If we used these two results as guides, then The Last Jedi is on pace for $650 million to $700 million. The film is still in second place on the 2017 domestic chart, but it won’t be there for long, as it is about two days away from overtaking Beauty and the Beast for top spot.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Will 2017 Fade Away?
December 29, 2017
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This weekend is very literally the last chance for a film to qualify for the Oscars and for most Awards Season ceremonies, it is too late as voting has already begun. This explains why there are only three films on this week’s list, only two of which have any reviews. Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool is easily the best, but I’m still unsure if it will thrive in limited release.
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Weekend Predictions: The Last Jedi Looks to Top The Last Weekend of 2017
December 28, 2017
As per usual, the weekend after Christmas has no new wide releases. This means there will be almost no changes in the top five from last weekend, meaning Star Wars: The Last Jedi will win with ease, while Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a comfortable second place. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story and Sing were neck-and-neck with just over $90 million combined. The Last Jedi and Jumanji should top that, giving 2017 one last win in the year-over-year comparison.
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Last Jedi nears $500 million, after taking $21.5 million on Wednesday
December 28, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $21.5 million on Wednesday lifting its running tally to $444.9 after just 13 days of release. By comparison, The Force Awakens earned $28.09 million and Rogue One pulled in $18.02 million, during their respective 13th day of release. At this pace, the film will will overtake Beauty and the Beast before the end of the year, becoming the biggest domestic hit of 2017. It will have no trouble hitting $600 million domestically, while $700 million isn’t out of reach.
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International Box Office: The Last Jedi Repeats on Top with $75.1 million, China Dominates Chart
December 27, 2017
We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film earned $75.1 million over the weekend for totals of $380.3 million internationally and $748.5 million worldwide. The film has yet to open in China, so this is not a complete picture of its box office strength.
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Last Jedi Boxes the Competition into a Corner with $28.3 million
December 27, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s Boxing Day box office was impressive, as it grew 3% to $28.3 million for a 12-day total of $423.93 million. This is the second biggest domestic box office of the year, behind Beauty and the Beast and ahead of Wonder Woman. The misalignment in holidays means we still can’t really compare this result to either The Force Awakens or Rogue One, but that changes tomorrow.
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Theater Averages: The Post Posts Top Marks with average of $58,446 / $84,673
December 27, 2017
The Post dominated the Christmas weekend, earning an average of $58,446 in nine theaters, $84,673 if you include Christmas Day. The second best result of the four-day weekend was Phantom Thread, which earned an average of $31,818 in four theaters on Christmas Day alone. Last week’s winner, The Last Jedi, earned an average of $16,911 during its second weekend of release. The final two films in the $10,000 club were I, Tonya and Along With The Gods: The Two Worlds with averages of $11,169 and $10,914 respectively.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Abridged Edition: Star Wars Tops Estimates with $71.57 million / $99.03 million
December 26, 2017
We still don’t have final numbers for the weekend or Christmas day, and because of the holidays, we likely won’t get them until January 2nd. This means were are stuck with weekend estimates for Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and other films and no information for Monday. Star Wars: The Last Jedi outperformed estimates with $71.57 million for a four-day total of $99.03 million. Its 11-day total is $395.63 million and it will take just 12 days to get to $400 million. That’s not the record, but it is the third best result and that's still very impressive.
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It was a Merry Christmas Day for Last Jedi with $27.5 million
December 26, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi had a big Christmas Day, earning $27.5 million for a total of $395.6 million. It is already in third place on the 2017 domestic chart. The film’s four-day weekend haul was $96.0 million, which is about 10% lower than predicted, but having Christmas Eve land on a Sunday was a complication and made predicting the movie’s box office numbers harder than usual. We can’t really compare this result to either The Force Awakens or Rogue One, because of the misalignment in holidays. In fact, it won’t be until we get Wednesday’s numbers that we will be able to judge The Last Jedi in comparison to the previous two Star Wars movies.
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Home Market Releases for December 26th, 2017
December 25, 2017
This Tuesday is Boxing Day, which is a holiday celebrated in Canada, the U.K., and I assume other countries. It is the celebration of boxes. ... I don’t know what it is. According to Wikipedia, “There are competing theories for the origins of the term, none of which is definitive.” ... So it is probably not important. What is important is the total lack of quality DVD and Blu-ray releases. Haikyu: Season 1 is the best release on this week’s list. The Paper is the second best, and it only managed a spot on the Secondary Blu-ray releases.
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Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Easily Holds Off Five Newcomers
December 24, 2017
It’s a very crowded weekend, to say the least, in theaters, with five new wide releases already playing, and another joining the fray tomorrow. The Last Jedi is unperturbed by the competition, and will come out an easy winner, according to studio estimates released on Sunday. Its $68.486 million projected 3-day gross takes it to $365 million after 10 days in release. Among its new records this weekend, it became the 3rd-fastest film to earn $350 million at the domestic box office, and will have the 3rd-best Christmas weekend. All this is in spite of the fact that takings are expected to be down significantly today as everyone prepares for, or starts celebrating, the holiday.
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Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Adds $24.68 Million to Top $300 Million
December 23, 2017
This weekend complicated, as Christmas Eve lands on a Sunday and Christmas Day technically makes it a four-day weekend. Although with so many schools closed for the holidays, you could almost call it a eleven-day weekend. This makes interpreting Friday’s box office numbers more difficult than usual. Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $24.68 million on Friday, putting its running tally to $321.28 million. It tied Jurassic World for second-fastest to $300 million at just 8 days. On the other hand, this is a little bit lower than our predictions. It still has a real shot at over $100 million during the four-day weekend, but it could have to wait until Tuesday to get to $400 million.
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2017 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part IV - Books, Music, and Anything I Missed
December 23, 2017
We’ve already talked about first-run Releases, TV-on-DVD releases, and limited Releases / classics / foreign-imports. This week we look at some books, music, and movies that didn’t arrive in time to talk about before, movies I just forgot to mention, or screeners that arrived late and I won’t be able to get to.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Mr. Postman, Deliver Me a Hit
December 22, 2017
It’s Christmas weekend, and, while there are a large number of wide releases, there are not that many limited ones. Some of them, like The Post, are going for Oscar glory. Others just feel like they are being dumped into theaters to disappear.
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Last Jedi Finishes Week in First Place with $17.8 million on Thursday
December 22, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi bounced back 5% from Wednesday, earning $17.8 million on Thursday for a week-long total of $296.5 million. It is impossible to compare the film to The Force Awakens, as the seventh day in that film’s run was Christmas Eve and it fell 28% as a result. Rogue One grew a lot more, up 12% to $16.7 million. I was expecting the film to bounce back more than this. That said, it is already in seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and will be in fourth place by the end of the weekend. Add in Christmas and it will be at over $500 million by the end of the year.
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Annihilation Trailer 2
December 22, 2017
Sci-fi drama starring Natalie Portman, written and directed by Alex Garland opens February 23, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Counts [Updated]: Six New Wide Releases Battle it Out Over Christmas Weekend
December 21, 2017
Christmas Day falling on a Monday makes for a crush of films opening in theaters over a very extended weekend. Studios have spread the releases out six days, but that still means we’re averaging one new wide release a day. Jumanji and The Greatest Showman already started out on Wednesday, and Jumanji will be the widest opener of all for the weekend, but we will get three new wide releases on Friday, and another on Monday, making for a very crowded calendar for the dedicated moviegoer.
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Weekend Predictions: New Releases are Far From Perfect
December 21, 2017
This is technically Christmas Weekend, so it should come as no surprised that there are a lot of movies vying for that lucrative Christmas family audience. Two of them, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, opened yesterday, and we’ve already talked about how well they did on their opening day. On Friday, they will be joined by Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing, and Father Figures, none of which are earning good reviews and only one of which is expected to be a box office hit. This should leave Star Wars: The Last Jedi on top of the chart with room to spare. This weekend last year, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story dominated the box office, while Sing was the only release that was a major hit.
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Jedi Defeats Jumanji $16.9 million to $7.2 million on Wednesday
December 21, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi had to deal with competition for the first time in its run, as both Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman debuted in theaters on Wednesday. It didn’t have much of an effect. The Last Jedi earned $16.9 million yesterday for a six-day total of $278.8 million domestically. This was only the 32nd-biggest Wednesday ever, although 12th-biggest for a film not opening on that day. The film fell 17% from Tuesday, compared to a 2% gain by The Force Awakens and a 15% drop by Rogue One. It overtook Despicable Me 3 for seventh place on the 2017 domestic chart and it is eyeing Thor: Ragnarok for sixth place. It won’t get there tomorrow. It will certainly get there sometime on Friday.
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Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again Trailer
December 21, 2017
Musical starring Amanda Seyfried, Meryl Streep, Lily James, Christine Baranski, Jessica Keenan Wynn, Julie Walters, Alexa Davies, Pierce Brosnan, Jeremy Irvine, Colin Firth, Hugh Skinner, and Stellan Skarsgård opens July 20, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Contest: Last Chance to Win: Winning Announcement
December 21, 2017
The winners of our Last Chance to Win contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s opening weekend were...
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Weekend Predictions: Jumanji Takes on Jedi
December 20, 2017
Five films are opening wide this week, two of which, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The Greatest Showman, debut on Wednesday. We will have full predictions at the usual time, but we should at least discuss these two films before everyone has a chance to see them.
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International Box Office: The Last Jedi Dominates with $230.0 million, but Wasn’t the Only Release
December 20, 2017
We’ve been tracking Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s international numbers since it debuted, so there’s not a lot to talk about here. The film dominated the international chart with $230.0 million in 54 markets during its first weekend of release, while its worldwide opening was $450.0 million. However, it wasn’t the only film at the international box office.
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Last Jedi Earns $20.3 million on Tuesday
December 20, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $20.3 million on Tuesday to push its running tally to $261.9 million after just five days of release. It remains in eighth place on the 2017 chart, but it will top Despicable Me 3 for seventh place sometime today (possibly by the time you read this, in fact). Compared to Monday, the film was down 6%, which is a slightly better than the 7% drop The Force Awakens had during this point in its run. On a side note, Rogue One also fell at this point in its run, but by a mere 0.07%.
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Sicario 2: Soldado Trailer
December 20, 2017
Thriller starring Josh Brolin and Benicio del Toro opens June 29, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: Last Jedi Dethrones Beauty and the Beast $51,987 to $41,508
December 19, 2017
The Last Jedi became the biggest wide release of the year on the theater average chart with $51,987, overtaking the previous leader, Beauty and the Beast, which had an opening weekend average of $41,508. Last week’s number one film, I, Tonya was pushed into second place with an average of $34,256 in five theaters. The film clearly has more room to grow. Call Me by Your Name was well behind with an average of $16,398 in 30 theaters. There were two more holdovers in the $10,000 club: The Shape of Water at $10,828 in 158 threatres and Darkest Hour at $10,090 in 84.
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Home Market Releases for December 19th, 2017
December 19, 2017
By this time next week, Christmas will be over. This resulted in a short list, but not a bad week. Dunkirk is the biggest new release of the week and it is award-worthy and a contender for Pick of the Week. It isn’t the only contender, The Amicus Collection, Stronger, A Town Called Panic: The Collection, and others are too. As for the best of the best, I went with The Tragically Hip: A National Celebration on DVD or Blu-ray.
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Last Jedi Pulls in $21.6 million on Monday, for $241.6 million Four-Day Total
December 19, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi earned $21.6 million on Monday for a four-day total of $241.6 million. This represents a 58% decline from Sunday, which is steeper decline than both Rogue One (53%) and The Force Awakens (34%). However, this is not reason to panic, as The Last Jedi doesn’t have nearly as many schools closed for holidays as the other films had. Yesterday, only 31% of schools were closed, compared to 48% during the same point in Rogue One’s run and a whopping 77% for The Force Awakens. We will continue to track numbers throughout the week and I suspect The Last Jedi will have better holds from now on.
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Ocean’s 8 Trailer
December 19, 2017
Thriller starring Sandra Bullock, Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Helena Bonham Carter, Rihanna, Sarah Paulson, Mindy Kaling, and Awkwafina opens June 8, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Tops Expectations with $220.01 million, Ferdinand is a Distant Second Place
December 19, 2017
We already discussed Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s incredible debut yesterday, but there were other films that were in theaters over the weekend. The Last Jedi earned nearly 80% of the total weekend box office, so the rest of the box office had to settle for the leftovers. Ferdinand was a distant second with just $13.40 million, which is lower than our low expectations. Overall, the box office more than tripled from last week hitting $278 million. More importantly, it rose by 31% when compared to this weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2017 cut 2016’s lead by nearly $100 million in just one week. Granted, 2017 is still behind by $320 million or 3.0% at $10.10 billion to $10.42 billion. However, I just wanted 2017 to cut the lead to $250 million and that looks a lot more likely now than it did even a month ago.
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Early Weekend Wrap-Up: Last Jedi Defeats Competition / Last Year with $220.01 million
December 18, 2017
The Last Jedi was expected to dominate the weekend box office. In fact, we predicted it had 50/50 chance to earn more than the entire box office earned this weekend last year. It managed that feat, with about $10 million to spare, earning $220.01 million. This is the second-best opening weekend of all time, behind only The Force Awakens and was only 11% below the record-setting debut. The good news continues, as the two films also earned similar reviews and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so The Last Jedi should earn similar legs. If this is true, then it will pull in over $800 million domestically.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Game of Thrones: Season Seven
December 18, 2017
Game of Thrones is one of the biggest TV shows of all time. It was considered a hit right away with an average viewership of just over 2.5 million during its fourth season. Its most recent season had an average viewership over four times that. It holds the record for most Emmy wins by a scripted show at 38. (This past season wasn’t eligible for this year’s Emmys because it started too late in the year, but I suspect it will earn a ton of nominations next year.) However, there is bad news, as season eight, the final season, won’t begin airing until 2019. Will season seven leave viewers aching for more? Or has the show finally started to show its age?
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Mortal Engines Trailer
December 18, 2017
Sci-fi adventure starring Robert Sheehan and Hera Hilmar opens December 14, 2018 ... Full Movie Details.
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Analysis: How Will Disney’s Acquisition of Fox Studios Affect the Industry?
December 17, 2017
It was announced last week that Disney bought Fox Studios. To be more specific, they bought TV and movie production, cable channels, and the back catalog, but not Fox News, Fox Sports, or the local Fox TV stations. A lot of people have wondered what this will do to the industry. In my opinion, a lot of people have reacted in a disproportionately negative way. I will look at some of the issues that have been brought up, starting with...
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Weekend Estimates: Last Jedi Set for $220 Million Domestic Debut
December 17, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi will earn $220 million at the domestic box office this weekend, according to Disney’s Sunday morning estimate. After starting out with the second-biggest day of all time on Friday (a monstrous $104.787 million, including $45 million in Thursday previews), the film looks to be holding on well through the weekend. Saturday’s estimate is $64 million, off 39% from Friday, compared to The Force Awakens’ decline of 43% on its second day. Disney is projecting a decline of 20% on Sunday, while Awakens dropped 11%, which suggests caution on their part, and the possibility of a final opening weekend a little higher than their current projection.
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December 16, 2017
Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with...
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December 16, 2017
The Last Jedi topped last night’s estimate, earning $104.78 million on Friday. It is only the second film to reach the century mark during its opening day. It is still 12% lower than the $119 million The Force Awakens opened with, but if it has the same legs, it will earn $218 million during its opening weekend. The reviews are practically identical and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so having similar legs is more likely. Sequels usually have shorter legs, but The Last Jedi had better growth from Thursday previews to Friday’s numbers, so this could be a good omen. Maybe it will earn $220 million during its opening weekend.
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December 15, 2017
Disney is really on top of the The Last Jedi hype train sending updated tracking of its opening day. Instead of aiming for $94 million to $99 million, the studio is aiming for $99 million to $104 million, putting on pace to be only the second film to earn $100 million during its opening day. Furthermore, CinemaScore released their final rating and it was a solid A, exactly what the reviews would suggest. The studio expects the film to make $205 million to $215 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our prediction that I’m happy.
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December 15, 2017
Disney just sent out updated tracking for The Last Jedi’s opening Friday. The studio expects the film to earn in the mid- to high-$90 million range, which puts it on pace for approximately $200 million. If the film doesn’t get to $200 million over the weekend, then it will be more front-loaded than we anticipated and more front-loaded than the reviews would suggest. We will keep you posted as more numbers come in.
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December 15, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened in another 34 markets on Thursday, helping it reach $60.8 million internationally after just two days of release. At the same point in its run, The Force Awakens had $72.7 million, while Rogue One had $37 million. The Last Jedi is slightly closer to the high end rather than the low end, but not by enough that we need to adjust our prediction.
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December 15, 2017
We expect Star Wars: The Last Jedi to have an opening weekend box office total almost exactly in the middle of The Force Awakens and Rogue One. Since those two films earned $57 million and $29 million respectively during their previews, The Last Jedi would need $43 million to be on target. According to Disney it pulled in $45 million last night, making it the second-best Thursday preview of all time. (The Force Awakens is number one, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was pushed into third place with $43.5 million.) That’s not a lot above where we needed it, but does make $210 million for the weekend more likely. Additionally, the reviews remain impressive at 93% positive, while the average score given by the critics so far is 8.2 out of 10. There were some grumblings that the audiences were less impressed; however, this appears to be internet buzz and not reflective of the real world. We don’t have the full ComScore grade yet, but they reported 90% positive results last night, as well as 82% in the “Definitely recommend” category. That’s simply fantastic. We will have a better picture by this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates arrive and we can compare legs with the previous two Star Wars films.
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December 15, 2017
Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens in theaters today and that’s scaring away all of the competition. There’s barely more than a dozen films we have release dates for, and none of them are earning serious buzz. If we limited ourselves to films with 10 or more reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, then this week’s list would be embarrassingly short. The best film on this week’s list is Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, but it is an foreign animated movie, so I’m not expecting much at the box office.
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December 14, 2017
The first box office numbers for Star Wars: The Last Jedi were released and it earned $5.30 million in Australia. This was $7.06 million in local currency, which is almost exactly in the middle of the local currency debuts for The Force Awakens ($9.45 million) and Rogue One ($4.78 million). It was short of exactly in the middle by less than 1%, which suggests an opening here of just over $200 million and that’s close enough to our prediction that I don’t feel the need to make a change there. Of course, that could change once we see the preview numbers later today.
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December 14, 2017
As I predicted last week, the final theater count for The Last Jedi is about 100 more than Disney’s original projection. The latest from the Star Wars franchise will play in 4,232 theaters on Friday, 78 more than screened The Force Awakens two years ago.
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December 14, 2017
Our final box office prediction contest closes in less than 24 hours, so I just wanted to give a last-minute warning to our readers so they all have a chance to enter. There are lots of prizes, including three copies of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray. You can go here to read the full rules, or click here to send in your prediction for Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s opening three-day weekend.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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December 14, 2017
Western starring Christian Bale, Wes Studi, and Rosamund Pike opens December 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 14, 2017
2017 is behind 2016’s pace by over $400 million and and this weekend is the last chance it has to cut that deficit by any real margin. This weekend, Star Wars: The Last Jedi debuts and it is practically a guaranteed monster hit. Rogue One made just over $400 million in the 2016 calendar year, while The Force Awakens earned just over $650 million. The Last Jedi is widely expected to earn somewhere in-between those results. In the meantime, there is one other wide release, Ferdinand, which is the textbook definition of counter-programming. The studio is just hoping it doesn’t get lost in the crowd. This weekend last year, the total box office was $211.57 million. I give The Last Jedi about a 50/50 chance of topping that by itself.
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December 13, 2017
The Screen Actors Guild were the third group to announce their nominations for this awards season. So far there have been three different films earning the most nominations. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri picked up four nominations, which is extra impressive, as there are only six theatrical categories.
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December 13, 2017
Coco earned first place for the second time with $55.3 million in 35 markets for totals of $254.0 million internationally and $389.7 million worldwide. Even if we pretended Christmas wasn’t right around the corner and that the film didn’t still have several major markets left to open in, it would still be on track to earn over $500 million worldwide, which is more than enough to cover its entire production budget and likely a sizable chunk of its advertising budget. With Christmas less than two weeks away and international openings in Australia, Italy, Brazil, South Korea, the U.K., and Japan still ahead, there’s a chance this film will finish with $750 million worldwide. That would be more than enough to pay for its combined production budget, meaning it will break even before it reaches the home market. As for this past weekend, the film continued to top the chart in China with $34.80 million over the weekend for a three-week total of $127.98 million.
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December 12, 2017
First a quick note, this is a weekend preview, not weekend predictions, because I’m looking more at the big picture and less at the actual weekend numbers. Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens this weekend, although if you are part of our international readership, it might have already opened where you live. We will be going over its daily results as soon as they start coming in. In the meantime, I’m a little more bullish than I was last week, as the reviews finally started coming in. The film’s Tomatometer Score is an impressive 93% positive with an average score of 8.3 out of 10. This is actually on par with or better than some Awards Season players and it is stellar for a blockbuster. The film is widely expected to fit somewhere between The Force Awakens and Rogue One and with a lot of people saying this is the best Star Wars film since The Empire Strikes Back, the higher end appears to be more likely than the lower end. Previously, $200 million was the target for the film’s opening weekend, but now $210 million to $225 million is within reach. Furthermore, it is expected to top that during its opening weekend internationally leaving the film with a slim chance at $500 million worldwide. On the downside, the film likely cost that much to make and advertise, so it needs to be a $1 billion hit worldwide to break even in a timely fashion. Fortunately, no one really thinks that will be a problem. In fact, a lot of people are assuming the film will earn $1 billion internationally, while most won't be shocked if it reaches $2 billion worldwide.
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December 12, 2017
Steven Spielberg’s sci-fi adventure, starring Tye Sheridan opens March 30 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 12, 2017
There was another Oscar contender on top of the theater average chart this weekend, as I, Tonya earned an average of $66,039 in four theaters. Call Me by Your Name was the next best film with an average of $31,761 in nine theaters. The film isn’t expanding as fast as one would expect, given its theater average, but this could be because the studio doesn’t think it has mainstream appeal. The Shape of Water was close behind with an average of $27,843 in 41 theaters and it has already earned some measure of mainstream success. The final film in the $10,000 club was Darkest Hour with an average of $13,989 in 53 theaters.
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December 12, 2017
Christmas is rapidly approaching, so most of the big releases have already hit the home market. The biggest box office release on this week’s list is Kingsman: The Golden Circle, but its reviews were only mixed. The biggest release overall is Game of Thrones: Season Seven, while the only other competition for Pick of the Week is Election: The Criterion Collection. I’m going to award the title to Game of Thrones, even though the screener didn’t arrive until Monday afternoon.
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December 12, 2017
It was a good weekend at the box office, relatively speaking, as most films in the top five beat expectations. Granted, this was mostly by tiny amounts, but it added up. We still fell 20% compared to last week to $84 million. This is 1.2% higher than the same weekend last year and we were expecting a similarly close loss, so this is a surprise victory. The year-over-year numbers are almost identical to last week, with this year down by 4.1% or $420 million when compared to last year. Right now 2017 has pulled in $9.79 billion, while 2016 had a running tally of $10.21 billion.
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December 11, 2017
The Golden Globes nominations are the second major Awards Season set to come out. Sort of. (WGA announced the nominations for TV, radio, etc., but not their theatrical nods.) It is still very early in the year, so it is hard to say if there are any real snubs, or if there are any real favorites. The Shape of Water led the way with seven nominations, while The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri were right behind with six a piece.
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December 11, 2017
Western starring Bill Pullman opens December 15 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 10, 2017
Coco remains the number one movie at the box office this weekend by a considerable margin, mainly due to a lack of serious competition from new releases. Disney’s animated adventure will gross about $18.3 million this weekend, for a domestic total of $135.5 million. The film will also pile up another $55.3 million internationally, taking its worldwide cume to $389.5 million. It still has some big openings to come, including Brazil, Korea, the UK, and Japan in January, so it has some way to go, although its progress will be eclipsed by The Last Jedi for the next few weeks.
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December 9, 2017
Coco surprised no one by earning first place on Friday. It earned $4.27 million, giving it a running tally of $121.48 million after 17 days of release and putting it on pace for $19 million over the weekend. Good news: This is a little better than expected. Bad news: Next weekend could be a mess, as the film will not only have to deal with monster competition, but direct competition as well. If it can avoid being demolished at the box office next weekend, then it will stick around in the top ten for the rest of the year. Even if if does get demolished, it still has a shot at $200 million domestically, but it will be close.
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December 9, 2017
The first installment of our Holiday Gift Guide dealt with first run wide releases and one franchise box set. It wasn’t a particularly good year for high quality monster hits. Sadly, TV on DVD releases look even worse. That’s not to say there were no good TV shows that debuted last year; however, there haven’t been many TV shows that made their DVD / Blu-ray debuts recently. My favorite “new” TV show of the year was MST3K (Netflix says it’s a new show, but the creators say it is season 11 of the original MST3K, so I don’t know if I should really call it a new show), but there’s no DVD / Blu-ray release, at least not for people who didn’t back the Kickstarter. My favorite truly new show was GLOW, but again, there’s no DVD / Blu-ray release yet. Likewise, Stranger Things has no regular Blu-ray release. You know what, just assume anything from Netflix isn’t on this list, because there’s no DVD / Blu-ray, or the release is nearly featureless (as is the case with Jessica Jones). On a side note, my favorite new non-screening show was Speechless, which again has no DVD / Blu-ray release, so it’s not just Netflix that’s ignoring physical media. There are also not a lot of megasets to compensate, meaning this list might be a bit short compared to most years. I’ve even had to break my usual rule when it comes to megasets.
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December 8, 2017
We are deep into Awards Season, but that just means there is a lot of competition already in theaters and there’s not much new coming out this week. Only one film, I, Tonya, has any real hope at finding box office success.
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December 8, 2017
Historical drama starring Annette Bening and Jamie Bell opens December 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 8, 2017
This is the last box office prediction contest we will ever hold, so it is fitting we are using what should be the biggest box office hit of the year as the target film. Star Wars: The Last Jedi is the only real choice for target film in this week’s box office prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening three-day weekend box office number for Star Wars: The Last Jedi.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film’s opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven’t won, or haven’t won recently, and they will win the final copy of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray.
Furthermore, since this is the last contest we will be holding, I’ll be giving away a couple of other Frankenprizes to randomly selected entrants. There will be at least two additional prizes to hand out, more if I find more bubble envelopes. I plan on using all of them that I have, making this the biggest box office contest we’ve held.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!
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December 8, 2017
There is only one wide release this weekend, Just Getting Started. However, it is barely opening wide and is widely expected to miss the top ten. This means the top five will barely change from last week and Coco should have no trouble remaining on top of the chart. This weekend last year, Office Christmas Party opened in second place, behind Moana. Office Christmas Party was hardly a monster hit, but it was strong enough to keep 2017 from winning the year-over-year comparison. Hopefully, it will still be close.
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December 7, 2017
The long wait is nearly over. In eight days time we’ll have a lot of numbers to report as the film rolls out worldwide. But today we got our first official number from Disney: 4,100. That’s approximately how many theaters Star Wars Ep. VIII: The Last Jedi will play in when it opens in the US, Canada and Puerto Rico next Friday. The number is no surprise: The Force Awakens debuted in 4,134 locations two years ago, and Rogue One opened in 4,157 last year. But it’s the first hard number that we have from the studio, and allows us to do a little speculation about how the opening is shaping up.
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December 7, 2017
Sci-fi action movie starring Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard opens June 22 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 6, 2017
Aardman animated adventure with the voices of Eddie Redmayne and Maisie Williams, directed by Nick Park, opens February 16 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 6, 2017
Coco climbed into first place with $69.0 million in 33 markets for totals of $171.3 million internationally and $281.4 million worldwide. The film opened in a trio of major markets in Europe, earning first place in all three. France led the way with $5.2 million, $6.4 million including previews, while Spain ($2.8 million) and Germany ($2.0 million) were also strong results. It beat Moana’s opening in all three markets. The film grew 146% during its second weekend in China earning $44.17 million over the weekend for a two-week total of $75.79 million. The film is already the biggest Pixar hit in China and is in third place for Disney animated films, behind Zootopia and Big Hero 6.
December 6, 2017
It was another stellar weekend at the box office, at least as far as the theater average chart was concerned. The Shape of Water earned an average of $83,282 in two theaters. This is the fourth best of the year so far. Call Me by Your Name was right behind with an average of $73,890 in four theaters. This is by far the best result of the year for a holdover, more than doubling Lady Bird’s sophomore stint. However, Lady Bird expanded its theater count during its second weekend of release, while Call Me by Your Name did not. The Disaster Artist was close behind with an average of $63,755 in 19 theaters. You could argue this was the best result of the week, because the film was playing in many more theaters than the two films above it. Wonder Wheel was well back with an average of $28,111 in five theaters. Normally this would be an amazing start, but this week it won’t make an impact and it could fade away by the end of the year. Finally, Darkest Hour was the final film in the $10,000 club earning an average of $27,093 in four theaters during its second weekend of release.
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December 5, 2017
Thriller starring Liam Neeson opens January 12 ... Full Movie Details.
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December 5, 2017
The week is deceptively strong. At first glance, Despicable Me 3 appears to have scared off all of the competition, but when you look deeper, there are a lot of contenders for Pick of the Week. These include Twin Peaks: A Limited Event Series, Better Watch Out, Princess Cyd, and others. In the end, I went with Long Time Running, which came out on DVD and Blu-ray last Friday.
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December 5, 2017
It was a good weekend, as every film in the top five beat expectations at the weekend box office. Granted, in most cases it was by a tiny amount, but any victory is worth celebrating at this point. It has been a really bad year at the box office. (Or to be more accurate, the summer was historically bad and the rest of the year hasn’t been able to compensate.) Coco led the way with $27.53 million and thanks to the holidays, should stick around in the top ten until early 2018 helping it get past $200 million with ease. The overall box office fell 44% from last weekend to $105 million; however, it is a post-holiday weekend, so a decline like this was expected. More importantly, the box office rose 9.7% from last year and this is reason to celebrate. Year-to-date, 2017 is still behind 2016’s pace by 4.1% / $410 million, at $9.68 billion to $10.09 billion, but if we can maintain this pace for the rest of the year, then we could really cut into 2016’s lead.
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December 4, 2017
Black comedy starring Olivia Cooke and Anya-Taylor Joy opens March 9 ... Full Movie Details.
Childhood friends Lily and Amanda reconnect in suburban Connecticut after years of growing apart. Lily has turned into a polished, upper-class teenager, with a fancy boarding school on her transcript and a coveted internship on her resume; Amanda has developed a sharp wit and her own particular attitude, but all in the process of becoming a social outcast. Though they initially seem completely at odds, the pair bond over Lily’s contempt for her oppressive stepfather, Mark, and as their friendship grows, they begin to bring out one another’s most destructive tendencies. Their ambitions lead them to hire a local hustler, Tim, and take matters into their own hands to set their lives straight.
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December 3, 2017
Despicable Me 3 is the fourth film in the Despicable Me franchise. I’ve previously reviewed the first three films and bought the first film, because I loved it. The second film was weaker, but still great. The third film was Minions. It’s a kids movie, nothing more. There’s been a downward trajectory in the quality that’s quite noticeable. Does it continue here? Is it at least better than Minions was?
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December 3, 2017
The weekend after Thanksgiving is usually when the studios take a breather before the big Christmas season, and this year is no different, with no new wide releases, and relatively minor shuffles on screen use at the theaters. It’s therefore little surprise that Coco holds on at the top of the chart, and its strong reviews and season-friendly nature help it to extend its lead over Justice League. Coco is headed towards $26.114 million this weekend, according to Disney, for $109 million or so to date. That’s down 49% from last weekend. Justice League, meanwhile, drops a more troubling 60% to $16.58 million, for $197 million after three weekends.
More exciting action lies among the limited and expanding releases, however…
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December 2, 2017
Coco beat expectations by a tiny margin on Friday, earning $6.28 million. This is 67% lower than its opening Friday, but its opening Friday was also a Holiday, so that’s to be expected. Look for $27 million over the full weekend, which is a little lower than Moana’s second weekend of release, but the gap between the two is closing. Given Coco’s reviews and its A+ from CinemaScore, it might start catching up by this time next week.
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December 1, 2017
It’s an incredibly busy week with about 30 films coming out. However, the vast majority of them have too few reviews to be worth talking about. In fact, there would have been more entries in the secondary VOD than the main list, except I bent the rules a little. There are still some releases that are certainly worth checking out, including The Disaster Artist, The Other Side of Hope, A Bad Idea Gone Wrong, and The Shape of Water. If I were to pick just one, it would easily be The Shape of Water.
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December 1, 2017
The box office was mostly as expected during November. Granted, Thor: Ragnarok over-performed and Justice League underperformed, but overall there were no real surprises. This means the month started slow, but we got a couple of wins in the end and that bodes well going into the final month of the year. That said, December is a weird month. There are five weekends, but only seven films that I’m sure are opening truly wide. Additionally, five of those seven films are opening Christmas weekend. I’ve never seen a month this lop-sided. There are no real wide releases the first two weeks of the month, so we will likely start slow again, but when The Last Jedi debuts, we should see explosive growth at the box office. It will open with more than any film last December made and that should help 2017 cut into 2016’s lead. 2017 won’t be able to close the gap entirely, but the month could do well enough to cut 2016’s lead to under $250 million. That’s my goal. If that happens, I will be happy.
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2017 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part III - Limited Releases, Classics, Foreign Imports
Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Tops Tracking with $104.78 million Opening Day
Early Friday Estimates Update: The Last Jedi Tracking Ticks Higher now at North of $100 million Opening Day
Early Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi on Track for Nearly $100 million Opening Day
International Box Office: The Last Jedi Two-Day Total hits $60.8 million
Thursday Night Previews: The Last Jedi Earns Second-Best Previews with $45 million - Updated with Ferdinand
Limited and VOD Releases: Birdboy and the Forgotten Limited Releases
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International Box Office: First Numbers for Last Jedi: $5.30 million Australian Debut
Theater Counts [Update 2]: Last Jedi Launches in 4,232 Theaters
Contest: Last Chance to Win - Last Minute Reminder
Hostiles Trailer
Weekend Predictions: Last Jedi Goes up Against Rogue and Awakens
2017 Awards Season: SAG Nominations
International Box Office: Coco Collects Another $55.3 million
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Weekend Preview: Jedi Will be the Last Film to Earn Top Spot in 2017
Ready Player One Trailer
Theater Averages: Tonya Skates its Way to $66,039
Home Market Releases for December 12th, 2017
Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Continues its Conquest with $18.45 million
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2017 - Awards Season: Golden Globes - Nominations
The Ballad of Lefty Brown Trailer
Weekend Estimates: Disaster Artist Hits, Just Getting Started Misses
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Friday Estimates: Coco Clings to the Top, Disaster Artist Achieves a Spot in the Top Five
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2017 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part II - TV-on-DVD Releases
Limited and VOD Releases: Tonya is Keeping its “I” on the Prize
Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool Trailer
Contest: Last Chance to Win
Weekend Predictions: Coco Looks to Threepeat on Top
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Theater Counts: The Last Jedi Expected in 4,100 Theaters
Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom Trailer
Early Man Trailer
International Box Office: Coco Catapults into First Place with $69.0 million
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Theater Averages: Awards Season is Shaping Up
The Commuter Trailer
Home Market Releases for December 5th, 2017
Weekend Wrap-Up: Coco Holds Strong with $27.53 million, But Moana Sails Further Away
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Thoroughbreds Trailer
Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Despicable Me 3
Weekend Estimates: Coco Wins, Limited Releases on Fire
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Friday Estimates: Coco Pulls In $6.28 million, but Disaster and Water Rule the Box Office
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Limited and VOD Releases: Avoid Disasters and See a Limited Release this Week
2017 Preview: December