The Numbers News - February 2018
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International Box Office: Operation Red Sea Dives into a Sea of Green with $107 million
February 28, 2018
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Operation Red Sea climbed into first place with $107 million in five markets for an international total of $336 million. Of this, the film earned $107.02 million in its native China for a two-week total of $335.81 million there. Amazingly, this was 46% higher than its opening weekend.
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Theater Averages: New Releases Can’t Take Down Black Panther
February 27, 2018
Black Panther was the only film in the $10,000 club this past weekend earning an average of $27,776 in just over 4,000 theaters. If the film earned this during its opening weekend, it would have been the best theater average for any film that has opened in 2018. Mary and the Witch’s Flower had a, well, complicated weekend. It was officially only playing in three theaters, but on Saturday, it had special screenings in over 400 theaters, earning nearly $200,000 in the process. In the three theaters where it had regular showings, it had a theater average of about $2,500. That’s good for a film that has been in theaters for six weeks.
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Home Market Releases for February 27th, 2018
February 27, 2018
It is a great week on the home market with several Oscar contenders making their home market debuts. I put in review requests for several of them, but so far none have arrived. Coco is still a contender for Pick of the Week, but I’ve heard some backlash against the other two, so I want to wait to see for myself. In the end, I went with Thor: Ragnarok and Pick of the Week, even though the DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, and 4K Ultra HD Combo Pack don’t come out till next week. The screener arrived early and it is certainly the best Blu-ray on this week’s list.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Original Screenplay
February 27, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, ending with with Best Original Screenplay. This category is actually competitive, which is the first time I’ve been able to say that so far this year. In fact, there are three nominees that have a reasonable shot at winning.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Adapted Screenplay
February 27, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at the two Screenwriting Categories, starting with Best Adapted Screenplay. We haven’t had a single competitive category so far, but that changes today. ... with the Best Original Screenplay. Best Adapted Screenplay is a one-horse race.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Another Week, Another Set of Records for Black Panther
February 26, 2018
Almost everyone expected Black Panther to earn first place over the weekend. I doubt there were many people who expected this. The film fell just 45% earning $111.66 million for a ten-day total of $403.61 million, helping the film make appearances on a number of record charts, including; second biggest second weekend of release, second fastest to $400 million, etc. The new releases matched expectations, more or less, with Game Night earning second place and coming within a rounding error of our prediction. Overall, the box office earned $192 million. This is 33% lower than last weekend; however, this is a good hold for a post-holiday weekend. Compared to last year, the box office was up by 55% and this is a much more important number. Year-to-date, 2018 has a 14% / $230 million lead over 2017, at $1.88 billion to $1.65 billion. This is great news at this point of the year, but we really need to stretch that lead to over $300 million in the next two plus weeks, before we are dealing with Beauty and the Beast, if we can’t, then this lead could evaporate before the end of March.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Thor: Ragnarok
February 26, 2018
Thor: Ragnarok opened with some of the best reviews of the MCU and was easily the biggest hit in the Thor franchise. And now it is being completely overshadowed by Black Panther’s success. Is it worth checking out? Is it really one of the best films in the MCU?
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Blockers Trailer
February 26, 2018
Comedy starring Leslie Mann, Ike Barinholtz, and John Cena opens April 6 ... Full Movie Details.
When three parents discover their daughters’ pact to lose their virginity at prom, they launch a covert one-night operation to stop the teens from sealing the deal.
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Weekend Estimates: Black Panther’s $108-Million Weekend Sets Up $650-Million Domestic Run
February 25, 2018
The party is just getting started for Black Panther. With Disney’s official weekend estimate in, it looks like the latest from the Marvel Universe is already just one day away from being the franchise’s highest-grossing movie for a film built around a single character, and it is on course to top The Avengers as the biggest Marvel movie of them all. That’s thanks to a projected $108 million weekend that sets some records of its own.
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Friday Estimates: Black Panther on Pace for $100-Million Weekend
February 24, 2018
As expected, Black Panther dominated on Friday at the box office. However, it was a little better than we were predicting, earning $28.86 million. Usually when outstanding reviews have to go up against the Fanboy effect, the Fanboy effect wins, but not this time. Look for $101 million during its second weekend of release, making it just the fourth film to earn $100 million during its second weekend. On a related note, the film has already topped the lifetime totals of several MCU installments, including Thor: Ragnarok.
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Thursday Night Previews: Million Dollar Debut for Game, Annihilation Puts up a Fight
February 23, 2018
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Game Night started its box office run with $1 million in previews. This is within the range of expectations and hopefully the stellar reviews will help it come match our $18 million prediction.
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Beirut Trailer
February 23, 2018
Thriller starring Jon Hamm and Rosamund Pike opens April 13 ... Full Movie Details.
A U.S. diplomat flees Lebanon in 1972 after a tragic incident at his home. Ten years later, he is called back to war-torn Beirut by CIA operatives to negotiate for the life of a friend he left behind.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Too Many Limited Releases are Cursed with Mixed Reviews
February 23, 2018
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It’s not a good week for limited releases. The one I was looking forward to seeing the most was The Lodgers, but its reviews are mixed. Both November and Survivors Guide to Prison have 100% positive reviews, but neither are likely to have success at the box office.
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Weekend Predictions: Are the New Releases Brave Enough to Take On Black Panther?
February 22, 2018
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Three wide releases are attempting to take on Black Panther at the box office; none will be successful. Game Night is the widest release of the week and its reviews are amazing. Annihilation is barely opening in 2,000 theaters, but its reviews are even better. Then there’s Every Day, which is just hoping to not get lost in the crowd. All three new releases combined won’t earn half as much as Black Panther will earn this weekend, so the real competition for the returning box office champ is this weekend last year. Get Out debuted with $33.38 million, while the total box office was $123.61 million. Black Panther won’t get to $123.61 million, but it should do well enough to keep 2018 significantly ahead of 2017.
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Theater Counts: Black Panther Continues Domestic Domination
February 22, 2018
Black Panther was never in danger of losing its place at the top of the box office chart this weekend, after a $202 million opening, but its job will be a little easier for not having a new release playing in close to the same number of theaters. That said, Game Night is obviously winning over some theater chains, as it will debut in a very solid 3,488 locations this weekend. There haven’t been many films like this opening in over 3,000 theaters in February in recent years, and the most recent comparable release is probably 2011’s Just Go With It, which launched in 3,548 theaters and made a shade over $30 million for the weekend.
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International Box Office: Monster Hunts Down Black Panther With $190 million Opening Weekend
February 22, 2018
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Monster Hunt 2 earned first place on the international chart with $190 million. Of that, $188.47 million was earned in its native China. The only other market where the film earned more than $1 million was Malaysia, where it earned $1.2 million. The original Monster Hunt didn’t start nearly as fast, but it also had surprisingly long legs for a Chinese film. I suspect Sequelitis will reduce this film’s legs, but that won’t stop it from improving on the first film’s nearly $400 million worldwide run.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Lead Actress
February 22, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we have been looking at the four acting categories, ending with Best Lead Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite. ... Most of the categories we will talk about next week are much more competitive.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor
February 22, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. As with every other acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
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Sherlock Gnomes Trailer
February 22, 2018
Animated adventure with the voices of Johnny Depp, James McAvoy, and Emily Blunt opens March 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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Oscar Contest: Halfway Point
February 21, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, you have until Saturday, March the third to check out the nominees and try to predict the winners. If you come out on top, you will win a copy of every single Best Picture nominee, when they become available on the home market. The second place winner will get a copy of the Best Picture winner and the Best Animated Film winner, again when they become available on the home market. Finally, if you are a long time entrant and you are the best of the All-time Top 200, then you will win the Best Picture winner. Worst case scenario, you can go for bragging rights by beating the crew at The Numbers. It shouldn’t be too hard; last year I finished in 121st place.
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Theater Averages: Another Gold for Black Panther
February 21, 2018
Black Panther not only earned the best theater average of the weekend, it earned the best theater average of the year so far with an average of $50,250. This tops the previous record of $47,167 set by The Post on the first weekend of the year. The previous best average for a film that opened in 2018 was $13,783, set by Padmaavat. The only other film in the $10,000 club this past weekend was The Party, which earned an average of $12,465 in three theaters.
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Ready Player One Trailer 2
February 21, 2018
Steven Spielberg sci-fi adventure starring Tye Sheridan and Olivia Cooke opens March 29 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Black Panther Re-Writes the Record Book
February 20, 2018
Black Panther destroyed expectations over the Presidents Day long weekend earning $202.00 million / $242.16 million over the 3-day / 4-day weekend. The list of records this film broke seems endless, but we will get to that in a bit. Unfortunately, the two other new releases, Early Man and Samson, both bombed. On a more positive note, the total box office rose 103% from last weekend reaching $285 million. This is the third-biggest weekend of all-time, and the biggest non-December weekend. This is also 92% higher than the same weekend last year. Even if we use Presidents Day of last year, 2018 was still 51% higher. More importantly, 2018 completely erased the small deficit it had and is now ahead of 2017 by $120 million or 8% at $1.62 billion to $1.50 billion. More impressively, 2018 is even ahead of 2017 in terms of ticket sales at 178 million to 172 million.
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Acrimony Trailer
February 20, 2018
Tyler Perry thriller starring Taraji P. Henson opens March 30 ... Full Movie Details.
A faithful wife tired of standing by her devious husband is enraged when it becomes clear she has been betrayed.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actor
February 20, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Supporting Actor. In this category, as with every acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Supporting Actress
February 20, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, starting with Best Supporting Actress. In this category, there is an overwhelming favorite. And here’s a spoiler for the rest of the week, every single acting category has an overwhelming favorite.
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Home Market Releases for February 20th, 2018
February 19, 2018
It’s another slow week; however, I prefer to think of it as the calm before the storm, as there are several blockbusters and Oscar contenders coming out over the next few weeks. That’s not to say there are no big hits or Oscar contenders on this week’s list. The Florida Project and Loving Vincent are both up for an Oscar, while there are some massive hits coming out on VOD, like Thor: Ragnarok. As for the Pick of the Week, it was an easy choice: The Florida Project on Blu-ray.
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Monday Estimates: Black Panther Now Over $200 Million in Three Days
February 19, 2018
Disney posted updated weekend projections for Black Panther this morning, and if your jaw was dropped already, it’s time to pick it up and drop it again. The film’s box office fell just 9% on Sunday to an estimated $60.096 million, giving it the second-best Sunday in box office history, just fractionally behind The Force Awakens’ $60.553 million. That pushes Panther’s three-day opening weekend to an estimated $201.797 million, making it the fifth film in history to top $200 million on opening weekend.
There are a couple of other telling statistics that reveal just how strongly the film is performing…
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2017 Awards Season: BAFTA Winners
February 18, 2018
The BAFTAs were handed out on Sunday night, with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri winning the most awards at five. This is not too surprising, as it was technically a British film, despite its setting, and that gave it a leg up on the competition.
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Analysis: What Gives a Marvel Movie Legs?
February 18, 2018
Black Panther is currently eating up the charts, with a projected $218 million 4-day opening. The film is tracking for the second- or third-best opening weekend for a Marvel Cinematic Universe film, so its status as a hit is practically confirmed, even if it ends up having the worst multiplier in MCU history. That said, and despite having 17 previous films in the series, the patterns for what gives an MCU film good legs or not is hard to pin down.
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Weekend Estimates: Black Panther Powers to $218 Million Long Weekend
February 18, 2018
Black Panther is riding a waving of positive feedback all the way to record territory this weekend, with Disney projecting a $192 million three-day, and $218 million four-day weekend, as of Sunday morning. That gives the film three outright records right off the bat: biggest weekend in February, biggest three-day Presidents Day weekend, and biggest four-day Presidents Day weekend. In each case, the film is topping the jaw-dropping-at-the-time opening of Deadpool in 2016.
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Featured Blu-ray Review: Lady and the Tramp: The Signature Collection
February 17, 2018
Lady and the Tramp first hit theaters in 1955 and over the years it has earned nearly $100 million at the box office. It has also been released numerous times on the home market, including multiple times on Blu-ray. The newest edition, The Signature Collection Blu-ray Combo Pack, comes out on the 27th of February. However, the screener arrived early and I have nothing else to review this week, so I thought I would get to it early. (It also comes out on Video on Demand this Tuesday).
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Friday Estimates: Black Panther Crushes Expectations, Headed over $200 million for Weekend
February 17, 2018
As expected, Black Panther crushed the competition on Friday. However, it beat all but the most enthusiastic predictions to earn $75.81 million for the day. Add in 97% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes and an A+ from CinemaScore, and the film should have good legs over the weekend. On the negative side, it is a monster hit thanks in part to the deafening hype, so that’s going to result in shorter legs.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Monster Hits and Animated Flicks
February 16, 2018
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It’s a strange week for limited releases with a wide variety of films to check out. There’s an Oscar nominationed Russian film, Loveless. As well as two Chinese films that are going to be monster hits back home, Detective Chinatown 2 and Monster Hunt 2. And finally, two animated films, Mind Game and Tehran Taboo.
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Thursday Night Previews: Deadpool is no Match for Black Panther and Wakandan Might
February 16, 2018
I tried to remain cautious in the face of the overwhelming hype surrounding the release of Black Panther. This could be a mistake. It started its domestic box office run with $25.2 million in previews on Thursday, which crushed the $12.7 million Deadpool earned during the beginning of its record-breaking debut weekend. Not only is this the best previews for a Presidents Day debut, it is the best pre-summer preview, topping The Hunger Games’s $19.7 million. It is also the second best for the MCU, just ahead of Civil War’s $25 million mark, and just behind Age of Ultron’s result of $27.6 million. The film’s 97% positive reviews suggest it will have long legs; however, as we’ve seen time and time again, even Award-worthy reviews are almost never a match for an extreme Fanboy Effect. That said, this result is way above the $20 million I was expecting and a $200 million four-day debut is now more likely than not.
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Rampage Trailer
February 15, 2018
Sci-fi action movie starring Dwayne Johnson and Naomie Harris opens April 20 ... Full Movie Details.
Theater Counts: Black Panther Tears Into 4,020 Theaters
February 15, 2018
As predicted last week, Black Panther will substantially exceed Disney’s projection from last Thursday of 3,800 theaters on its opening weekend. The studio has announced the film will open in 4,020 locations over the weekend, and it looks set to break all sorts of records when it does so.
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Weekend Predictions: Black Panther is About to Bring In a Lot of Green
February 15, 2018
It’s Presidents Day long weekend and there are two-and-a-half films trying to take advantage of the holiday with wide releases. However, the only film opening this weekend that people are actually talking about is Black Panther. This film is earning more buzz than any film opening until Infinity War and is widely expected to break records. Early Man’s reviews have been overwhelmingly positive, but it is just hoping to reach the top five. Finally, there’s Samson, which is only opening semi-wide. This weekend last year was the weekend after Presidents Day long weekend, so it is not a fair comparison and 2018 will crush 2017. Compared to Presidents Day of last year, 2018 will still crush the competition.
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Animated Film
February 15, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. A lot of people call this Oscar the Pixar Award, and look at that, there’s a Pixar film on this list. Is Coco the overwhelming favorite? Or does another film have what it takes?
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2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Feature-Length Documentary
February 15, 2018
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With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try to figure out who the favorites are and which films should just feel honored to be nominated. Today we look at Best Feature-Length Documentary. This category had an overwhelming favorite, Jane, but then it wasn’t even nominated. This left the category wide open. Has a new favorite emerged? Or is it still a tossup?
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International Box Office: Fifty Shades Earns more than Fifty First Place Finishes
February 14, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed made its international debut in 57 markets, earning first place in 54 of them. Overall, it earned $96.5 million internationally for a worldwide debut of $135.2 million. The film’s biggest market was Germany, where it earned $10.36 million on 731 screens. It earned similar openings in France ($8.90 million on 700 screens) and the U.K. ($8.22 million in 603 theaters). Add in more first place openings in Italy ($7.29 million on 517 screens); Russia ($6.99 million on 1,430); and Brazil ($6.26 million on 650), and the film was much stronger internationally than domestically. The studio’s share of the worldwide box office is already $60 million, which is more than the film cost to make. Assuming the film gets to $300 million worldwide, which is almost guaranteed at this point, the film will make a healthy profit before it reaches the home market.
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Theater Averages: Exits is Golden with $11,719, Fifty Shades Freed Settles for Silver
February 13, 2018
Golden Exits earned first place with $11,719 in its lone theater. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Fifty Shades Freed with an average of $10,234.
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Home Market Releases for February 13th, 2018
February 13, 2018
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It’s not a good week in terms of box office numbers, as the biggest box office hit to come out this week is Wonder. It is also one of the best new releases of the week and a contender for Pick of the Week. Other contenders for Pick of the Week include Blade of the Immortal, Night of the Living Dead, The Silence of the Lambs, and The Sinner: Season One. In the end, it was a coin toss between Blade of the Immortal and Night of the Living Dead and the former won.
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Midnight Sun Trailer
February 13, 2018
Romantic drama starring Bella Thorne and Patrick Schwarzenegger opens March 23 ... Full Movie Details.
17-year-old Katie Price has been sheltered since childhood with a life-threatening sensitivity to sunlight. Katie’s world opens up after dark when she ventures out to play her guitar for travelers. One night, she meets Charlie whom she has secretly admired for years. She hides her condition from him, and the two embark on a uniquely powerful romance.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Freed Falls to $38.56 million
February 13, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed topped our prediction by a tiny margin earning first place over the weekend with $38.56 million. Peter Rabbit also beat expectations with $25.01 million. Then there’s The 15:17 to Paris. Overall, the box office rocketed up 49% from last weekend to $140 million. Unfortunately, this wasn’t enough to compete with this weekend last year, as 2018 was 26% lower. That sounds devastating, but remember, there is a misalignment in holidays, so next weekend 2018 will bounce back. Likewise, because of the misalignment in holidays, the year-to-date comparison isn’t particularly useful. 2018 is behind 2017’s pace by 5.0% or $65 million at $1.22 billion to $1.28 billion. However, by this time next week, that entire deficit could be erased.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: Blade of the Immortal
February 12, 2018
Blade of the Immortal is directed by Takashi Miike, who is only 57 years old, but has directed 100 movies in his career so far. That’s not an exaggeration; this is literally his 100th film. He has slowed down and is now only making two or three movies a year, rather than the pace of five or so movies a year during his early career. Has this resulted in better films? Does Blade of the Immortal have more mainstream appeal? Or is it only for more hardcore Miike fans?
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Love, Simon Trailer
February 12, 2018
Drama starring Nick Robinson opens March 16 ... Full Movie Details.
Everyone deserves a great love story. But for seventeen-year old Simon Spier it’s a little more complicated: he’s yet to tell his family or friends he’s gay and he doesn’t actually know the identity of the anonymous classmate he’s fallen for online. Resolving both issues proves hilarious, terrifying and life-changing.
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2017 Awards Season: WGA Winners
February 11, 2018
The Writers Guild of America have announced their winners. There are many categories that WGA hand out awards in, but only three of them are theatrical releases. The list of winners include a couple of major Awards Season players and not a lot of surprises.
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Our 21st Annual Predict the Academy Awards Contest
February 11, 2018
Today we’re launching The Numbers 21st Annual Predict the Academy Awards Competition. This is our traditional chance for you to win some great prizes, and for all of our readers collectively to predict who will win the Oscars on March 5. The top selection for Best Picture in our contest has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar 14 times in the previous 20 years we’ve run the contest, and we’ve correctly predicted the Best Animated Feature 13 times out of 16. That represents a batting average of about 75%—an amazing performance when you consider that there are now nine or ten nominees for Best Picture each year.
Uniquely among Oscar contests, when you make your predictions, we show you how many people have voted for each movie so far, and allow you to go back and change your choices. In fact, you can come back at any time to update your predictions as news breaks and sentiment changes about different nominees. But beware our tie-breaking rule: if multiple people correctly predict the same number of winners, whoever made their picks first will win the prize.
So enter now for your best chance of winning our grand prize: every film nominated for Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray. We will send you all nine films that are nominated as soon as they become available on the home market, and you get to choose either the DVD or Blu-ray version. Our runner-up will win the Best Picture and Best Animated Feature on DVD or Blu-ray. And, for our long-term players, the best performer from among our all-time top 200 players will win the Best Picture on DVD or Blu-ray.
Weekend Estimates: Fifty Shades Finishes with $38.8 Million
February 11, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed caps the Shades franchise this weekend with a solid $38.805 million debut, according to Universal’s weekend estimate. That’s down from Fifty Shades Darker’s $46.6 million opening, but nowhere near the drop between the first and second movies—Fifty Shades of Grey came out the gate with $85 million back in 2015, although it was helped by Valentine’s Day falling on Saturday.
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Friday Estimates: Freed Costs Moviegoers $18.5 million on Friday
February 10, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed dominated the box office on Friday, earning $18.5 million. This is 14% lower than Fifty Shades Darker earned during its opening day. The two films should have similar legs, as they have similar reviews and both films earned B pluses from CinemaScore. Plug the numbers into that equation and we get an opening weekend of a little more than $40 million, enough to put it on pace for $100 million domestically.
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Limited and VOD Releases: Check out an Oscar-winner or Three
February 9, 2018
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A lot of films on this week’s list are earning good reviews, but not great reviews. This means most of them will have to wait till the home market to find an audience. That’s not to say there are no movies worth going to the theater to see. Summer 1993 is the best, but both Pad Man and the 2018 Oscar Shorts collections are also worth the trip.
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The Strangers: Prey at Night Trailer
February 9, 2018
Horror movie starring Christina Hendricks and Martin Henderson opens March 9 ... Full Movie Details.
A family’s road trip takes a dangerous turn when they arrive at a secluded mobile home park to stay with some relatives and find it mysteriously deserted. Under the cover of darkness, three masked psychopaths pay them a visit to test the family’s every limit as they struggle to survive.
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Thursday Night Previews: Freed Starts Strong with $5.6 million
February 9, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed got off to a fantastic start with $5.6 million from its previews on Thursday. This is nearly identical to the $5.72 million earned by Fifty Shades Darker. Add in the slight improvement in Tomatometer scores and I think we might have been a little pessimistic in our prediction. We will get a better idea where the film is at tomorrow, but for now, I’m bumping our prediction from $38 million to $42 million.
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Analysis: Why Haven’t There Been Fifty Shades of Grey Copycats?
February 8, 2018
This weekend the Fifty Shades franchise is expected to surpass $1 billion in total worldwide box office with the release of the final installment, Fifty Shades Freed. All that income comes from films with an estimated combined budget for all three films of $150 million. The last time Hollywood saw this kind of success with an erotic drama/thriller, it created an entire subgenre that ate its way all through the 90s. Yet, after this year, it seems Valentine’s Day weekend will be left without a Fifty Shades replacement. So why the hesitancy from Hollywood to step up to the challenge this time?
Theater Counts: Fifty Shades in 3,768 Locations, Black Panther Headed for 3,800 Plus
February 8, 2018
Fifty Shades Freed will open in 3,768 theaters this weekend, according to Universal’s Thursday report. The studio usually finds a few extra theaters before the weekend begins, so the final number will probably be fractionally higher. It’s the best performance for the franchise, ahead of the 3,710 theaters that Fifty Shades Darker opened in, and Fifty Shades of Grey’s 3,646. It’s not expected to be enough to stop a general decline in the box office fortunes of the franchise, but theater owners are clearly still keen to book it.
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Weekend Predictions: Will the Final Grey Film Open in the Black?
February 8, 2018
As the weekend approaches, there’s only one film that everyone is talking about: Black Panther. The film’s reviews are nearly 100% positive and Fandango announced its presales are the best for any pre-summer release. Unfortunately, it doesn’t open until next weekend. This week we have to settle for Fifty Shades Freed, Peter Rabbit, and The 15:17 to Paris. Fifty Shades Freed is widely expected to be the biggest hit released in 2018, at least so far. On the other hand, its reviews and the Fangirl Effect strongly suggest very short legs. Peter Rabbit is a family film and even though it has direct competition next weekend, it should have the best legs on this week’s list. Finally there’s The 15:17 to Paris, which is not living up to expectations with critics and this will likely hurt its box office chances. This weekend last year was Presidents Day long Weekend. 2018 is going to get absolutely destroyed in the year-over-year comparison.
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Venom Trailer
February 8, 2018
Super hero action movie starring Tom Hardy opens October 5 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: The Maze Runner is on a Marathon Pace with $35.5 million
February 7, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure remained in first place with $35.5 million in 80 markets for totals of $143.2 million internationally and $183.2 million worldwide. The film’s biggest new market was Mexico, where it earned first place with $3.20 million. Its best market overall was China, where it added $5.17 million over the weekend to its running tally, which now sits at $38.67 million.
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Mission: Impossible—Fallout Trailer
February 7, 2018
Thriller starring Tom Cruise opens July 27 ... Full Movie Details.
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Theater Averages: A Fantastic Start for Woman at $14,196
February 7, 2018
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A Fantastic Woman was the only film to top $10,000 on the theater average chart, as it earned an average of $14,196 in five theaters. This is the best average for a new release in 2018, topping the previews high mark of $13,179, which Padmaavat set last week.
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Home Market Releases for February 6th, 2018
February 7, 2018
There are not a lot of big titles on this week’s list of home market releases and there won’t be for at least a couple more weeks. That’s not to say there is nothing worth picking up. Both Blame (DVD) and Only the Brave (Blu-ray) are Pick of the Week contenders. In the end, Duckman: The Compete Series is the Pick of the Week winner and worth picking up, unless you own the previous DVD releases.
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Life of the Party Trailer
February 6, 2018
Comedy starring Melissa McCarthy and Molly Gordon opens May 11 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Wrap-Up: Jumanji Rumbles Back to the Top with $10.93 million
February 6, 2018
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle earned first place for the fourth time over the weekend with $10.93 million, while Maze Runner: The Death Cure was a close second with $10.47 million. This left Winchester in third place with $9.31 million, but it could have been much worse. Overall, the weekend fell 33% from last weekend with $95 million. More importantly, is 3.6% lower than the same weekend last year. 2018 lost its small lead over 2017 before the weekend and it is now 0.8% or $8 million below last year’s pace at $1.04 billion to $1.05 billion. It’s going to get a lot worse next weekend, due to the misalignment in holidays, but I think 2018 will quickly recover after that.
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Featured Blu-ray Review: Reset
February 5, 2018
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Reset is a Chinese / South Korea co-production that made nearly $30 million internationally, but struggled in limited release here. It also earned exactly 50% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. So I’m going into this movie with mediocre expectations. Will the film be a pleasant surprise? Or does it really deserve that 50% Tomatometer Score?
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Solo: A Star Wars Story Trailer
February 5, 2018
Sci-fi adventure starring Alden Ehrenreich, Donald Glover, and Emilia Clarke, opens May 25 ... Full Movie Details.
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Weekend Estimates: Jumanji and Greatest Showman in Record Territory
February 4, 2018
In spite of a decent opening, Winchester is proving to be no match for Jumanji this weekend. The holiday holdover returns to top spot on the chart in its seventh weekend with $11 million, down 32% from last time out. That makes it four weekends at the top of the chart for Jumanji, after opening in second place back on December 20. One needs to go back the best part of 30 years to find a film that matches that performance.
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Featured Blu-ray and DVD Review: A Bad Moms Christmas
February 4, 2018
Making sequels to comedies rarely works out. If the sequel is too close to the original, then it is not fresh enough to be funny. If it is too much of a departure, then why call it a sequel? There are some films, like Anchorman, that succeeded, because there’s a natural progression for the characters that opens up new comedic possibilities. Is this also true of Bad Moms? Does A Bad Moms Christmas stand out? Or is it just more of the same?
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2017 Awards Season: DGA Winners
February 4, 2018
The Directors Guild of America Awards were handed out this weekend and two of the three categories could be good omens come Oscar night. To be more accurate, it sets up an interesting two-way race on Oscar night.
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Featured TV on DVD Review: Duckman: The Complete Series
February 3, 2018
Duckman is an animated series that ran for four years back in the mid 1990s. It picked up three Emmy nominations, but I don’t think it has stuck around in the minds of most people in the 20 years since it came off the air. Has it aged well? And is the Complete Series Megaset worth the price?
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Friday Estimates: Winchester Earns First on Friday with $3.61 million, but Jumanji is Gunning For It
February 3, 2018
Winchester started out in first place on Friday with $3.61 million. That’s the good news. The bad news is, well, everything else. Its reviews have fallen to just 8% positive, while it earned a B minus from CinemaScore. To be fair, a lot of horror movies actually do worse than that with CinemaScore, as horror fans are notoriously hard to please. Since it is a new release and its word-of-mouth is likely going to be quite bad, it will have shorter legs than the rest of the films on this list and will very likely drop to third place by the end of the weekend with roughly $9 million. This is close enough to our prediction that I’m going to call it a victory.
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Thursday Night Previews: Winchester Misfires with $615,000
February 2, 2018
Winchester is the only wide release of the week, but it looks like having the weekend to itself won’t be enough to overcome the Super Bowl. It only managed $615,000 during previews, which is well below the $800,000 Rings managed this time last year. Worse still, the film has gone from no reviews to just 10% positive reviews, so its legs likely won’t be long either. We predicted between $8 million and $9 million during its opening weekend and I’m still relatively confident with that result. It may even get between $9 million and $10 million instead. We will have a better picture tomorrow when Friday's estimates are in.
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Limited and VOD Releases: A Fantastic Limited Release or Two
February 2, 2018
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It’s a terrible weekend to release a movie. Not only is the Super Bowl taking up most people’s attention, but fans of limited releases are too busy catching up on Oscar contenders to deal with new releases. There are not a lot of films on this week’s list, but 24 Frames and A Fantastic Woman could do well in the art house circuit.
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Weekend Predictions: Winchester Takes Aim at the Competition
February 1, 2018
It’s Super Bowl weekend and the only film attempting to compete with the sporting event is Winchester. Unfortunately, its nearly noon on Thursday and there are still no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. This means Maze Runner: The Death Cure and Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle will be in a race for first place over the weekend, while Winchester will have to settle for third place. This weekend last year, Rings was the biggest new release of the week. It wasn’t a hit, but it was bigger than any film this week will be, preventing 2018 from winning the year-over-year competition.
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Analysis: Films Like The Greatest Showman Should Be Considered Trendsetters, Not Flukes
February 1, 2018
The Greatest Showman’s box office life has almost mirrored that of a cliché Broadway musical. Before release, no one believed in its dreams: an $84 million circus musical starring Hugh Jackman and Zac Efron that was mocked by the bullies on film Twitter. It even had its darkest moment when it debuted at #4 with just $8.8 million, a definite sign of a total bomb. But then the rallying moment, as the film defied the odds and just kind of stuck around at #4 (and, on one weekend, #5) for 5 weeks straight, each weekend making more than its opening. Now the film’s soundtrack has reached #1 on the Billboard Top 100 albums, #1 on iTunes, and has over 200 million plays on Spotify. Two of the songs (“This is Me” and “Rewrite the Stars”) have been listened to over 50 million times each on Spotify (in comparison, the Spanish version of “Remember Me” from Coco has been listened to 12 million times). The film has earned a Golden Globe for Best Song and an Academy Award nomination for the same song. And, of course, it has shockingly earned over $100 million domestically. It currently stands at $128.2 million, which makes it the 15th-highest-grossing musical of all time, and it will climb higher on that list.
The Hurricane Heist Trailer
February 1, 2018
Action movie starring Toby Kebbell and Maggie Grace, opens March 9 ... Full Movie Details.
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International Box Office: Death Can’t Stop The Maze Runner’s $62.6 million Weekend
February 1, 2018
Maze Runner: The Death Cure jumped into first place on the international chart with $62.6 million in 70 markets for an early international total of $82.0 million. The film opened in first place in China with $22.80 million over the weekend for a total opening of $23.07 million. On the other hand, the film struggled in the U.K. earning third place with just $3.19 million in 507 theaters. By the end of the weekend, the studio’s share of the worldwide box office was over $40 million, which is fantastic for a film that cost $61 million to make. It should have no trouble breaking even early in its home market run, if not sooner.
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2018 Preview: February
February 1, 2018
2018 got off to a good start and January more or less held its ground when compared to 2017. There were some misses, but surprise holdovers made up the difference. Looking forward, February will be dominated by Black Panther. In fact, it will very likely make more during its opening weekend than the second place film, Fifty Shades Freed, will likely make in total. Black Panther likely won’t break records, but it could come close, while Fifty Shade Freed and Peter Rabbit both have a 50/50 shot at $100 million. Last February, The Lego Batman Movie both earned $175 million, while Fifty Shades Darker earned over $100 million. Black Panther will easily beat any film from last February; in fact, it could earn more than the top two films earned combined. As long as the rest of the box office isn’t a complete disaster, February should help 2018 earn a significant edge over 2017 in the year-over-year comparisons.
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